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Szeged 2011 v Diosgyori VTK

Szeged 2011

1–4Full time

Diosgyori VTK

NB II · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Szeged 2011 1–4 Diosgyori VTK SZEGED 2011 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Szeged 2011 win~~42%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.710

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.588

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Szeged 2011 win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Szeged 2011 was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Szeged 2011 v Diosgyori VTK
3′A goal for Diosgyori VTK on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
3′We said Szeged 2011 at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–23–59
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Szeged 2011 0–1 Diosgyori VTK
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Szeged 2011 win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Diosgyori VTK win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Szeged 2011 win 41%)
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Szeged 2011
19′Diosgyori VTK score on 19′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–85
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Szeged 2011 0–2 Diosgyori VTK
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Szeged 2011 win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
20′We said Szeged 2011 at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–11–85
21′We said Szeged 2011 at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
23′Diosgyori VTK find the net on 22′. 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–96
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Szeged 2011 0–3 Diosgyori VTK
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Szeged 2011 win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
26′Diosgyori VTK ahead on 21′ through T. Galantai. 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–96
27′A goal for Szeged 2011 on 26′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 4–10–87
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Szeged 2011 1–3 Diosgyori VTK
30′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 3–9–87
45′HALF-TIME Szeged 2011 1–3 Diosgyori VTK
47′SECOND HALF Szeged 2011 1–3 Diosgyori VTK
49′Diosgyori VTK score on 48′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–1–98
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Szeged 2011 1–4 Diosgyori VTK
50′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–1–99
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Szeged 2011 · On: M. Zekic · Off: V. Haragos
58′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Szeged 2011 · On: V. Vekony · Off: M. Ryashko
58′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Szeged 2011 · On: K. Toth-Gabor · Off: V. Haragos Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Diosgyori VTK · On: G. Holdampf · Off: Z. Galfi
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Szeged 2011 · On: B. Bodnar · Off: D. Miskolczi
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Diosgyori VTK
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Diosgyori VTK
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Diosgyori VTK · On: L. Vass · Off: T. Galantai
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Diosgyori VTK · On: G. Molnar · Off: M. Mucsanyi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Diosgyori VTK · On: A. Kecskes · Off: M. Szekszardi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Szeged 2011 · On: M. Sandor · Off: A. Szabo
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Diosgyori VTK · On: S. Sareczki · Off: A. Borveto
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Diosgyori VTK
FTFULL TIME Szeged 2011 1–4 Diosgyori VTK
FTSzeged 2011 1–4 Diosgyori VTK · Szeged 2011 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Szeged 2011 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Szeged 2011 42%, draw 27%, Diosgyori VTK 32%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Szeged 2011 v Diosgyori VTKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Szeged 2011 win42%

Draw27%

Diosgyori VTK win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Szeged 2011

Diosgyori VTK

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · NB II

Last match: 19 Oct · NB II

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Diosgyori VTK	10	−5	12
13	Szeged 2011	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · szeged 2011 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

42% The market34%

Us42%

~~Market~~34%

We make Szeged 2011 a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Szeged 2011 v Diosgyori VTK~~1.31 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in NB II this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~13 v 9

~~The market · Szeged 2011 win~~34% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Szeged 2011 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Szeged 2011 win	42%	34%	+8
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Diosgyori VTK win	32%	37%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	49%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Szeged 2011 or draw	68%	63%	+5
Szeged 2011 clean sheet	34%	–	–
Diosgyori VTK clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 9.0 10.3 5.5 2.1 1 12.1 12.4 6.9 2.6 2 7.7 8.2 4.5 3 3.4 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Szeged 2011 down, Diosgyori VTK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 NB II matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Szeged 2011 at home: 0.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Diosgyori VTK away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Szeged 2011, 1.10 for Diosgyori VTK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DIO 2–0 SZE · DIO 2–1 SZE · SZE 0–3 DIO · DIO 0–1 SZE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 22 Aug

SZEGED 2011

WDDLDW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

DIOSGYORI VTK

LLWWDD0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	10	+14	23
2	Tiszakecske FC	10	+9	22
3	Kecskeméti TE	10	+6	20
4	Gyirmot SE	10	+1	19
5	Kazincbarcikai	10	+5	17
6	Mezokovesd-zsory	10	+5	17
7	Ajka	10	+1	15
8	Fehérvár FC	10	+2	12
9	Diosgyori VTK	10	−5	12
10	Karcag SE	10	−2	11
11	Szentlőrinc SE	10	−5	11
12	BVSC	9	−1	10
13	Szeged 2011	9	−1	10
14	Nagykanizsai ULE	10	−7	9
15	Kozarmisleny FC	10	−9	7
16	Csakvar	10	−13	4