Soroksar v Fehérvár FC prediction · NB II

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Soroksar 1–0 Fehérvár FC SOROKSAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Soroksar win~~45%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.454

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.606

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Soroksar win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Soroksar 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF Soroksar v Fehérvár FC
4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Soroksar
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Soroksar
33′A goal for Soroksar on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
33′We said Soroksar at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Soroksar 1–0 Fehérvár FC
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Soroksar win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
34′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–9
45′HALF-TIME Soroksar 1–0 Fehérvár FC
46′SECOND HALF Soroksar 1–0 Fehérvár FC
53′We said Soroksar at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Soroksar win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
67′We said Soroksar at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
76′We said Soroksar at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Soroksar win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
82′We said Soroksar at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Fehérvár FC
88′We said Soroksar at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Soroksar win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Fehérvár FC
FTFULL TIME Soroksar 1–0 Fehérvár FC
FTSoroksar 1–0 Fehérvár FC · Soroksar win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Soroksar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Soroksar 45%, draw 23%, Fehérvár FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Soroksar v Fehérvár FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Soroksar win45%

Draw23%

Fehérvár FC win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Soroksar

Fehérvár FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Soroksar

Fehérvár FC

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · NB II

Last match: 10 Oct · NB II

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Soroksar	9	+13	20
8	Fehérvár FC	9	+3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Soroksar

Formation not confirmed

4 A. Kekesi

5 C. Lakatos

8 A. Vass

11 K. Kobol

12 L. Jova

20 B. Lovrencsics

23 Z. Kalnoki-Kis

25 R. Szasz

26 P. Hidi

31 K. Horvath

32 A. Halmai

Coach · Gabor Korolovszky

Substitutes

1 · M. Apro

2 · G. Ferencz

7 · L. Lukacs

13 · C. Kokovai

14 · A. Ven

15 · M. Vattay

16 · A. Takacs

18 · J. Ronaszeki

24 · M. Bencze

30 · R. William

Fehérvár FC

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Vas

4 C. Spandler

9 D. Nemeth

11 Z. Derekas

22 B. Murka

27 B. Bedi

28 D. Bartusz

29 Z. Kojnok

70 L. Kurdics

78 K. Kollo

90 K. Kovacs

Coach · Tamas Peto

Substitutes

3 · O. Hesz

5 · D. Kelemen

7 · D. Cipf

10 · D. Zsoter

18 · T. Ekbauer

21 · Z. Nagy

44 · B. Kemenes

51 · A. Harsfalvi

72 · J. Dubecz

73 · D. Bertok

74 · D. Kovacs

77 · E. Kovacs

Our number · soroksar winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:38 · locked at kick-off

45% The market37%

Us45%

~~Market~~37%

We make Soroksar a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Soroksar v Fehérvár FC~~1.65 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 20 v 12~~2 v 8

~~The market · Soroksar win~~37% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Soroksar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Soroksar win	45%	37%	+8
Draw	23%	28%	−5
Fehérvár FC win	31%	35%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	52%	+5
Both teams to score	59%	57%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	74%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	35%	33%	+2
Soroksar or draw	69%	65%	+4
Soroksar clean sheet	27%	–	–
Fehérvár FC clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.1 7.1 4.5 2.0 1 8.7 10.8 7.3 3.3 2 6.9 9.0 5.9 2.7 3 3.8 5.0 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Soroksar down, Fehérvár FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,627 NB II matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Soroksar at home: 3.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fehérvár FC away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Soroksar, 1.33 for Fehérvár FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FEH 1–1 SOR · SOR 3–1 FEH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug

SOROKSAR

WWWWDL1–0 · 3–2 · 6–0 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 2–5

FEHÉRVÁR FC

LLLWLW1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tiszakecske FC	10	+9	22
2	Soroksar	9	+13	20
3	Kecskeméti TE	10	+6	20
4	Gyirmot SE	10	+1	19
5	Mezokovesd-zsory	10	+5	17
6	Kazincbarcikai	9	+5	16
7	Ajka	10	+1	15
8	Fehérvár FC	9	+3	12
9	Karcag SE	10	−2	11
10	Diosgyori VTK	9	−5	11
11	Szentlőrinc SE	10	−5	11
12	BVSC	9	−1	10
13	Szeged 2011	9	−1	10
14	Nagykanizsai ULE	10	−7	9
15	Kozarmisleny FC	10	−9	7
16	Csakvar	10	−13	4