Nagykanizsai ULE v Kozarmisleny FC prediction · NB II

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Nagykanizsai ULE 0–3 Kozarmisleny FC NAGYKANIZSAI ULE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nagykanizsai ULE win~~43%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.731

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.632

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nagykanizsai ULE win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nagykanizsai ULE was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Nagykanizsai ULE v Kozarmisleny FC
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Kozarmisleny FC
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Nagykanizsai ULE
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Kozarmisleny FC
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Nagykanizsai ULE win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Nagykanizsai ULE 0–0 Kozarmisleny FC
46′SECOND HALF Nagykanizsai ULE 0–0 Kozarmisleny FC
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Nagykanizsai ULE win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
49′Kozarmisleny FC find the net on 49′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Nagykanizsai ULE 0–1 Kozarmisleny FC
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Nagykanizsai ULE win: 43% at kick-off, 9% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Kozarmisleny FC win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
50′We said Nagykanizsai ULE at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kozarmisleny FC · On: Z. Debreceni · Off: R. Vajda
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Nagykanizsai ULE · On: B. Lorincz · Off: M. Major
64′A goal for Kozarmisleny FC on 64′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
64′We said Nagykanizsai ULE at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
64′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Nagykanizsai ULE 0–2 Kozarmisleny FC
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Nagykanizsai ULE win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Nagykanizsai ULE · On: D. Varga · Off: F. Borsos Corrected
70′Kozarmisleny FC score on 70′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Nagykanizsai ULE · On: Y. Gelesh · Off: M. Szabo Corrected
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Nagykanizsai ULE 0–3 Kozarmisleny FC
71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Nagykanizsai ULE
74′68′: P. Szucs on the scoresheet for Kozarmisleny FC, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
75′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kozarmisleny FC · On: K. Kirchner · Off: B. Geiger Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Nagykanizsai ULE
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Kozarmisleny FC
FTFULL TIME Nagykanizsai ULE 0–3 Kozarmisleny FC
FTNagykanizsai ULE 0–3 Kozarmisleny FC · Nagykanizsai ULE win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nagykanizsai ULE are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nagykanizsai ULE 43%, draw 26%, Kozarmisleny FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Nagykanizsai ULE v Kozarmisleny FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nagykanizsai ULE win43%

Draw26%

Kozarmisleny FC win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Nagykanizsai ULE

Kozarmisleny FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nagykanizsai ULE

Kozarmisleny FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · NB II

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Nagykanizsai ULE	9	−4	9
16	Kozarmisleny FC	9	−12	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nagykanizsai ULE

Formation not confirmed

2 T. Magyar

5 B. Kapornai

9 R. Zsolnai

10 F. Borsos

20 B. Kovacs

30 Z. Garai

44 R. Stefan

55 M. Horvath

77 M. Szabo

80 M. Major

99 D. Meszaros

Coach · Gyula Jeney

Substitutes

4 · Z. Puskas

6 · R. Godzsajev-Telman

7 · D. Varga

8 · A. Lorincz

11 · V. Jovan

12 · M. Kiss

17 · B. Lorincz

19 · K. Szanyi

21 · P. Varga

25 · P. Kovacs

61 · D. Mikler

97 · Y. Gelesh

Kozarmisleny FC

Formation not confirmed

7 P. Szucs

21 B. Herczeg

22 B. Kozics

24 D. Kocsis

26 B. Geiger

55 G. Stumpf

66 S. Lekai

70 K. Laszlo

77 T. Turi

81 R. Vajda

90 C. Feher

Coach · Matyas Czuczi

Substitutes

1 · M. Toth

6 · K. Kirchner

8 · B. Vogyicska

10 · B. Zamostny

14 · P. Molnar

20 · Z. Debreceni

23 · D. Bene

28 · Z. Csucsanszky

41 · M. Katai-Urban

99 · R. Jelena

Our number · nagykanizsai ule winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market37%

Us43%

~~Market~~37%

We make Nagykanizsai ULE a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nagykanizsai ULE v Kozarmisleny FC~~1.40 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~12 v 16

~~The market · Nagykanizsai ULE win~~37% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nagykanizsai ULE win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nagykanizsai ULE win	43%	37%	+6
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Kozarmisleny FC win	31%	35%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	71%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Nagykanizsai ULE or draw	69%	65%	+4
Nagykanizsai ULE clean sheet	32%	–	–
Kozarmisleny FC clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.9 9.3 5.1 1 11.3 12.2 7.0 2.7 2 7.7 8.6 4.9 3 3.6 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nagykanizsai ULE down, Kozarmisleny FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,623 NB II matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nagykanizsai ULE at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Kozarmisleny FC away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Nagykanizsai ULE, 1.14 for Kozarmisleny FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~NAG 1–2 KOZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug

NAGYKANIZSAI ULE

LLLWWL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

KOZARMISLENY FC

LLLWDL1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	9	+13	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	9	+8	20
3	Tiszakecske FC	9	+8	19
4	Kazincbarcikai	9	+5	16
5	Gyirmot SE	9	0	16
6	Ajka	9	+2	15
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	9	+3	14
8	Fehérvár FC	9	+3	12
9	Karcag SE	9	−1	11
10	Szentlőrinc SE	9	−4	11
11	Diosgyori VTK	9	−5	11
12	Nagykanizsai ULE	9	−4	9
13	BVSC	8	−2	7
14	Szeged 2011	8	−2	7
15	Csakvar	9	−12	4
16	Kozarmisleny FC	9	−12	4