Mezokovesd-zsory v Kecskeméti TE prediction · NB II

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Mezokovesd-zsory 3–1 Kecskeméti TE MEZOKOVESD-ZSORY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mezokovesd-zsory win~~38%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.739

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mezokovesd-zsory win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mezokovesd-zsory 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
1′KICK-OFF Mezokovesd-zsory v Kecskeméti TE
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Mezokovesd-zsory win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Mezokovesd-zsory 0–0 Kecskeméti TE
46′SECOND HALF Mezokovesd-zsory 0–0 Kecskeméti TE
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kecskeméti TE · On: M. Berki · Off: A. Eordogh
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mezokovesd-zsory · On: G. Csatari · Off: P. Zachan
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Mezokovesd-zsory win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–45–27
59′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–48–26
61′Mezokovesd-zsory score on 61′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–20–5
61′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Mezokovesd-zsory 1–0 Kecskeméti TE
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Mezokovesd-zsory win: 38% at kick-off, 75% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Mezokovesd-zsory win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kecskeméti TE · On: P. Banyai · Off: B. Nemeth
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Mezokovesd-zsory win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mezokovesd-zsory · On: D. Vincze · Off: R. Hajdu
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mezokovesd-zsory · On: M. Silling · Off: P. Kovacs
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mezokovesd-zsory · On: Z. Keresztes · Off: B. Rab
70′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
77′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
77′Mezokovesd-zsory find the net on 77′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Mezokovesd-zsory 2–0 Kecskeméti TE
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Mezokovesd-zsory win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
78′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
83′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′A goal for Mezokovesd-zsory on 86′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
86′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Mezokovesd-zsory 3–0 Kecskeméti TE
88′Kecskeméti TE score on 88′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Mezokovesd-zsory 3–1 Kecskeméti TE
89′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Mezokovesd-zsory 3–1 Kecskeméti TE
FTMezokovesd-zsory 3–1 Kecskeméti TE · Mezokovesd-zsory win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mezokovesd-zsory just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mezokovesd-zsory 38%, draw 25%, Kecskeméti TE 37%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Mezokovesd-zsory v Kecskeméti TEBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mezokovesd-zsory win38%

Draw25%

Kecskeméti TE win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Mezokovesd-zsory

Kecskeméti TE

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mezokovesd-zsory

Kecskeméti TE

3Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · NB II

Last match: 11 Oct · NB II

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kecskeméti TE	9	+8	20
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	9	+3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mezokovesd-zsory

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Deczki

5 B. Voros

6 B. Rab

7 I. Csirmaz

8 G. Ottucsak

20 P. Zachan

41 B. Keresztes

77 S. Vajda

79 P. Kovacs

81 Z. Varjas

97 R. Hajdu

Coach · Aurel Csertoi

Substitutes

9 · Z. Keresztes

10 · A. Lorinczy

16 · A. Pinter

18 · S. Perpek

21 · P. Ternovan

30 · M. Silling

45 · M. Juracsik

67 · V. Csorgo

70 · G. Csatari

75 · D. Winter

76 · D. Vincze

Kecskeméti TE

Formation not confirmed

3 S. Szucs

4 Z. Szilgayi

6 A. Haris

10 B. Szabo

11 B. Kovacs

12 B. Ruisz

14 P. Beke

19 J. Szepe

44 S. Goblyos

66 A. Eordogh

92 B. Nemeth

Coach · Krisztian Timar

Substitutes

8 · P. Nyari

17 · M. Berki

23 · P. Banyai

26 · B. Farkas

27 · B. Bolgar

28 · A. Horvath

31 · G. Pljesovszki

34 · A. Szojma

74 · P. Palvolgyi

77 · M. Kotula

97 · I. Szabados

Our number · mezokovesd-zsory winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 03:51 · locked at kick-off

38% The market30%

Us38%

~~Market~~30%

We make Mezokovesd-zsory a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mezokovesd-zsory v Kecskeméti TE~~1.40 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 20~~7 v 2

~~The market · Mezokovesd-zsory win~~30% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mezokovesd-zsory win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mezokovesd-zsory win	38%	30%	+8
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Kecskeméti TE win	37%	41%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	49%	+3
Both teams to score	55%	53%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	72%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	28%	+2
Mezokovesd-zsory or draw	63%	59%	+4
Mezokovesd-zsory clean sheet	26%	–	–
Kecskeméti TE clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.3 8.9 5.9 2.7 1 9.1 11.7 8.0 3.7 2 6.2 8.2 5.6 2.6 3 2.9 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mezokovesd-zsory down, Kecskeméti TE across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,623 NB II matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mezokovesd-zsory at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kecskeméti TE away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Mezokovesd-zsory, 1.37 for Kecskeméti TE. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KEC 2–1 MEZ · MEZ 1–1 KEC · KEC 2–1 MEZ · MEZ 0–3 KEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug

MEZOKOVESD-ZSORY

WWLWDD2–1 · 4–2 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

KECSKEMÉTI TE

WWWDWW2–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	9	+13	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	9	+8	20
3	Tiszakecske FC	9	+8	19
4	Kazincbarcikai	9	+5	16
5	Gyirmot SE	9	0	16
6	Ajka	9	+2	15
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	9	+3	14
8	Fehérvár FC	9	+3	12
9	Karcag SE	9	−1	11
10	Szentlőrinc SE	9	−4	11
11	Diosgyori VTK	9	−5	11
12	Nagykanizsai ULE	9	−4	9
13	BVSC	8	−2	7
14	Szeged 2011	8	−2	7
15	Csakvar	9	−12	4
16	Kozarmisleny FC	9	−12	4