Mezokovesd-zsory v Ajka prediction · NB II

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 18:46

Mezokovesd-zsory 1–1 Ajka MEZOKOVESD-ZSORY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mezokovesd-zsory win~~50%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.835

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mezokovesd-zsory win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mezokovesd-zsory was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–28–23
1′KICK-OFF Mezokovesd-zsory v Ajka
27′GOAL DISALLOWED · 27' Mezokovesd-zsory
27′GOAL DISALLOWED · 27' Ajka
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Mezokovesd-zsory win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
42′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–41–20
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Mezokovesd-zsory win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Mezokovesd-zsory 0–0 Ajka
46′SECOND HALF Mezokovesd-zsory 0–0 Ajka
51′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Mezokovesd-zsory win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
61′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
61′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Ajka · On: Z. Csizmadia · Off: D. Artner
61′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Ajka · On: F. Pinter · Off: J. Szarka
68′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Ajka
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Mezokovesd-zsory win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
74′A goal for Ajka on 74′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–17–81
74′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Mezokovesd-zsory · On: P. Ternovan · Off: I. Csirmaz
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Mezokovesd-zsory 0–1 Ajka
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Mezokovesd-zsory win: 50% at kick-off, 2% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Ajka win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
75′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–16–82
75′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Mezokovesd-zsory · On: A. Pinter · Off: B. Voros
75′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Mezokovesd-zsory · On: A. Lorinczy · Off: B. Rab
75′🟨 YELLOW · 72' B. Bocskay · Ajka
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Mezokovesd-zsory win: 50% at kick-off, 0% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Mezokovesd-zsory 1–1 Ajka
89′88′ and it is 1–1: Mezokovesd-zsory have scored. 1–1 · 5–92–3
89′We said Mezokovesd-zsory at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–1 · 5–92–3
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Mezokovesd-zsory win: 50% at kick-off, 5% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Ajka win 3%)
90′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 4–93–3
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Mezokovesd-zsory · On: Z. Keresztes · Off: P. Zachan
FTFULL TIME Mezokovesd-zsory 1–2 Ajka
FTFULL TIME Mezokovesd-zsory 1–1 Ajka
FTMezokovesd-zsory 1–1 Ajka · Mezokovesd-zsory win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Mezokovesd-zsory v AjkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Mezokovesd-zsory win50%

Draw27%

Ajka win24%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 16:00

VenueMezokovesdi Varosi Stadion

Line-ups

Mezokovesd-zsory

Ajka

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mezokovesd-zsory

Ajka

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ajka	8	2	14
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	8	3	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mezokovesd-zsory

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Deczki

5 B. Voros

6 B. Rab

7 I. Csirmaz

8 G. Ottucsak

20 P. Zachan

41 B. Keresztes

77 S. Vajda

79 P. Kovacs

81 Z. Varjas

97 R. Hajdu

Coach · Aurel Csertoi

Substitutes

9 · Z. Keresztes

10 · A. Lorinczy

14 · T. Csomos

16 · A. Pinter

18 · S. Perpek

21 · P. Ternovan

30 · M. Silling

45 · M. Juracsik

67 · V. Csorgo

70 · G. Csatari

75 · D. Winter

Ajka

Formation not confirmed

5 Z. Kenderes

7 B. Szabo

10 D. Artner

15 N. Csorba

17 J. Szarka

25 B. Simon

29 B. S. Bacsa

30 L. Doncsecz

34 Z. Tar

37 B. Bocskay

71 D. Csoka

Coach · Balint Gaal

Substitutes

8 · B. Mohos

11 · A. Kopacsi

19 · Z. Csizmadia

44 · M. Gyurjan

49 · A. Garamszegi Geczy

77 · M. Kelemen

80 · M. Papp

95 · F. Pinter

Our number · mezokovesd-zsory winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

50% The market47%

Us50%

~~Market~~47%

We make Mezokovesd-zsory a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mezokovesd-zsory v Ajka~~1.39 – 0.86

~~Last six in NB II~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 14~~7 v 6

~~The market · Mezokovesd-zsory win~~47% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mezokovesd-zsory win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mezokovesd-zsory win	50%	47%	+3
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Ajka win	24%	25%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	28%	−8
Mezokovesd-zsory or draw	76%	75%	+2
Mezokovesd-zsory clean sheet	43%	–	–
Ajka clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 10.5 9.3 3.9 1 14.9 12.2 5.3 2 10.1 8.6 3.7 3 4.7 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mezokovesd-zsory down, Ajka across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,622 NB II matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mezokovesd-zsory at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ajka away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Mezokovesd-zsory, 0.86 for Ajka. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MEZ 1–1 AJK · AJK 1–2 MEZ · MEZ 1–1 AJK · AJK 1–1 MEZ

Form · last six in NB II

MEZOKOVESD-ZSORY

WWWLWD1–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 1–1

AJKA

DWWLWL1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	9	13	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	9	8	20
3	Tiszakecske FC	9	8	19
4	Kazincbarcikai	9	5	16
5	Gyirmot SE	9	0	16
6	Ajka	8	2	14
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	8	3	13
8	Fehérvár FC	9	3	12
9	Karcag SE	9	-1	11
10	Szentlőrinc SE	9	-4	11
11	Diosgyori VTK	9	-5	11
12	Nagykanizsai ULE	9	-4	9
13	BVSC	8	-2	7
14	Szeged 2011	8	-2	7
15	Csakvar	9	-12	4
16	Kozarmisleny FC	9	-12	4