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Kozarmisleny FC v Szentlőrinc SE

Kozarmisleny FC

0–2Full time

Szentlőrinc SE

NB II · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Kozarmisleny FC 0–2 Szentlőrinc SE KOZARMISLENY FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kozarmisleny FC win~~45%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.754

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.786

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kozarmisleny FC win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kozarmisleny FC 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Kozarmisleny FC v Szentlőrinc SE
45′HALF-TIME Kozarmisleny FC 0–0 Szentlőrinc SE
46′SECOND HALF Kozarmisleny FC 0–0 Szentlőrinc SE
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Kozarmisleny FC win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Kozarmisleny FC win 37%)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Kozarmisleny FC
52′We said Kozarmisleny FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–43–24
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–45–23
60′We said Kozarmisleny FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Szentlőrinc SE
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Kozarmisleny FC win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
68′We said Kozarmisleny FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–18
68′Szentlőrinc SE find the net on 68′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–20–76
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Kozarmisleny FC 0–1 Szentlőrinc SE
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Kozarmisleny FC win: 45% at kick-off, 4% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Szentlőrinc SE win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 57%)
69′We said Kozarmisleny FC at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
74′A goal for Szentlőrinc SE on 73′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
74′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–97
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kozarmisleny FC 0–2 Szentlőrinc SE
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Szentlőrinc SE
84′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kozarmisleny FC · On: M. Biro · Off: P. Szucs
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Szentlőrinc SE · On: R. Palfalvi · Off: M. Jung
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Szentlőrinc SE · On: B. Rideg · Off: B. Olah
85′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kozarmisleny FC · On: B. Zamostny · Off: Z. Debreceni
85′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kozarmisleny FC · On: P. Molnar · Off: D. Kocsis
86′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kozarmisleny FC · On: K. Kirchner · Off: K. Laszlo
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Szentlőrinc SE · On: G. Buta · Off: E. Czerna
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Szentlőrinc SE · On: Z. Csornyei · Off: A. Samson
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Szentlőrinc SE · On: G. Bolla · Off: M. Szolgai
FTFULL TIME Kozarmisleny FC 0–2 Szentlőrinc SE
FTKozarmisleny FC 0–2 Szentlőrinc SE · Kozarmisleny FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kozarmisleny FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kozarmisleny FC 45%, draw 25%, Szentlőrinc SE 30%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Kozarmisleny FC v Szentlőrinc SEBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kozarmisleny FC win45%

Draw25%

Szentlőrinc SE win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kozarmisleny FC

Szentlőrinc SE

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · NB II

Last match: 18 Oct · NB II

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Szentlőrinc SE	10	−5	11
15	Kozarmisleny FC	10	−9	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kozarmisleny fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market44%

Us45%

~~Market~~44%

We make Kozarmisleny FC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kozarmisleny FC v Szentlőrinc SE~~1.53 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in NB II this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~15 v 11

~~The market · Kozarmisleny FC win~~44% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kozarmisleny FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kozarmisleny FC win	45%	44%	+1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Szentlőrinc SE win	30%	28%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	50%	+1
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
Kozarmisleny FC or draw	70%	72%	−2
Kozarmisleny FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
Szentlőrinc SE clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.5 8.2 4.7 1 10.4 11.6 7.0 2.8 2 7.7 9.0 5.3 2.2 3 3.9 4.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kozarmisleny FC down, Szentlőrinc SE across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 NB II matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kozarmisleny FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Szentlőrinc SE away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Kozarmisleny FC, 1.19 for Szentlőrinc SE. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KOZ 0–0 SZE · SZE 1–1 KOZ · KOZ 1–1 SZE · SZE 0–2 KOZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 22 Aug

KOZARMISLENY FC

LLWDLW1–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

SZENTLŐRINC SE

LLWLDL0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	10	+14	23
2	Tiszakecske FC	10	+9	22
3	Kecskeméti TE	10	+6	20
4	Gyirmot SE	10	+1	19
5	Kazincbarcikai	10	+5	17
6	Mezokovesd-zsory	10	+5	17
7	Ajka	10	+1	15
8	Fehérvár FC	10	+2	12
9	Diosgyori VTK	10	−5	12
10	Karcag SE	10	−2	11
11	Szentlőrinc SE	10	−5	11
12	BVSC	9	−1	10
13	Szeged 2011	9	−1	10
14	Nagykanizsai ULE	10	−7	9
15	Kozarmisleny FC	10	−9	7
16	Csakvar	10	−13	4