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Kecskeméti TE v Karcag SE

Kecskeméti TE

5–2Full time

Karcag SE

NB II · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Kecskeméti TE 5–2 Karcag SE KECSKEMÉTI TE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kecskeméti TE win~~60%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.242

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.155

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kecskeméti TE win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kecskeméti TE was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
1′KICK-OFF Kecskeméti TE v Karcag SE
8′Kecskeméti TE score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
8′We published Kecskeméti TE at 60%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Kecskeméti TE 1–0 Karcag SE
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Kecskeméti TE win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Karcag SE
26′Kecskeméti TE find the net on 26′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Kecskeméti TE 2–0 Karcag SE
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Kecskeméti TE win: 60% at kick-off, 94% now
27′We published Kecskeméti TE at 60%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–4–1
29′We published Kecskeméti TE at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Karcag SE
45′HALF-TIME Kecskeméti TE 2–1 Karcag SE
46′A goal for Karcag SE on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–4
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Kecskeméti TE 2–1 Karcag SE
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Kecskeméti TE win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
46′SECOND HALF Kecskeméti TE 2–1 Karcag SE
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Karcag SE · On: D. Szakal · Off: L. Fazekas
52′A red card for Karcag SE on 51′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 82–14–3
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Karcag SE · On: M. Kohut · Off: A. Mona
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Karcag SE · On: O. Fekete · Off: N. Asztalos
52′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Karcag SE
53′Kecskeméti TE score on 53′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
53′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kecskeméti TE 3–1 Karcag SE
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Kecskeméti TE win: 60% at kick-off, 97% now
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Kecskeméti TE
65′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Karcag SE · On: A. Z. Gyori · Off: D. Szekely
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Karcag SE
72′Kecskeméti TE find the net on 72′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
72′We published Kecskeméti TE at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
72′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Kecskeméti TE 4–1 Karcag SE
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Kecskeméti TE win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kecskeméti TE · On: A. Eordogh · Off: M. Berki
74′A goal for Karcag SE on 74′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Kecskeméti TE 4–2 Karcag SE
75′6 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 99–1–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Karcag SE · On: A. Girsik · Off: K. Varga
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kecskeméti TE · On: P. Banyai · Off: P. Beke
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kecskeméti TE · On: A. Merenyi · Off: A. Bolyki
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kecskeméti TE · On: P. Palvolgyi · Off: S. Goblyos
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kecskeméti TE · On: P. Nyari · Off: B. Kovacs
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Kecskeméti TE
92′Kecskeméti TE score on 90′ to make it 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
92′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 5–2 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Kecskeméti TE 5–2 Karcag SE
FTFULL TIME Kecskeméti TE 5–2 Karcag SE
FTKecskeméti TE 5–2 Karcag SE · Kecskeméti TE win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kecskeméti TE are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kecskeméti TE 60%, draw 21%, Karcag SE 19%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Kecskeméti TE v Karcag SEBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kecskeméti TE win60%

Draw21%

Karcag SE win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kecskeméti TE

Karcag SE

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · NB II

Last match: 18 Oct · NB II

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Kecskeméti TE	10	+6	20
10	Karcag SE	10	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kecskeméti te winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

60% The market68%

Us60%

~~Market~~68%

We make Kecskeméti TE a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kecskeméti TE v Karcag SE~~2.00 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in NB II this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 11~~3 v 10

~~The market · Kecskeméti TE win~~68% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kecskeméti TE win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kecskeméti TE win	60%	68%	−8
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Karcag SE win	19%	13%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	51%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	39%	−3
Kecskeméti TE or draw	81%	87%	−6
Kecskeméti TE clean sheet	36%	–	–
Karcag SE clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.0%

0123450 4.8 5.4 2.6 1 10.0 9.6 5.1 2 9.6 9.7 5.0 3 6.4 6.4 3.3 4 3.2 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kecskeméti TE down, Karcag SE across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 NB II matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kecskeméti TE at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Karcag SE away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Kecskeméti TE, 1.03 for Karcag SE. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KAR 1–2 KEC · KEC 2–0 KAR · KAR 1–0 KEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 22 Aug

KECSKEMÉTI TE

WWDWWL4–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–3

KARCAG SE

WWLDLL4–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	10	+14	23
2	Tiszakecske FC	10	+9	22
3	Kecskeméti TE	10	+6	20
4	Gyirmot SE	10	+1	19
5	Kazincbarcikai	10	+5	17
6	Mezokovesd-zsory	10	+5	17
7	Ajka	10	+1	15
8	Fehérvár FC	10	+2	12
9	Diosgyori VTK	10	−5	12
10	Karcag SE	10	−2	11
11	Szentlőrinc SE	10	−5	11
12	BVSC	9	−1	10
13	Szeged 2011	9	−1	10
14	Nagykanizsai ULE	10	−7	9
15	Kozarmisleny FC	10	−9	7
16	Csakvar	10	−13	4