Karcag SE v Szeged 2011 prediction · NB II

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Karcag SE 1–2 Szeged 2011 KARCAG SE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Karcag SE win~~36%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.632

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.470

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Karcag SE win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Karcag SE was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
1′KICK-OFF Karcag SE v Szeged 2011
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Karcag SE win 32%)
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Karcag SE
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Karcag SE
45′HALF-TIME Karcag SE 0–0 Szeged 2011
46′SECOND HALF Karcag SE 0–0 Szeged 2011
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Karcag SE win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Karcag SE
55′A goal for Karcag SE on 55′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–20–5
55′We published Karcag SE at 36%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–20–5
55′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 76–20–5
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Karcag SE 1–0 Szeged 2011
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Karcag SE win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Karcag SE win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 20%)
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Szeged 2011
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Szeged 2011
62′Szeged 2011 score on 62′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 21–57–21
62′We said Karcag SE at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 21–57–21
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Karcag SE 1–1 Szeged 2011
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Karcag SE win: 36% at kick-off, 21% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Karcag SE win 21%)
65′Szeged 2011 find the net on 65′. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–17–80
65′We said Karcag SE at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Karcag SE 1–2 Szeged 2011
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Karcag SE win: 36% at kick-off, 3% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Szeged 2011 win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
66′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–17–81
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Szeged 2011
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Karcag SE · On: N. Asztalos · Off: M. Gyorgye
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Karcag SE · On: M. Halacsi · Off: D. Szekely
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Karcag SE · On: O. Fekete · Off: A. Girsik
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Szeged 2011 · On: M. Sandor · Off: A. Szabo
FTFULL TIME Karcag SE 1–2 Szeged 2011
FTKarcag SE 1–2 Szeged 2011 · Karcag SE win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Karcag SE just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Karcag SE 36%, draw 29%, Szeged 2011 35%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Karcag SE v Szeged 2011Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Karcag SE win36%

Draw29%

Szeged 2011 win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Karcag SE

Szeged 2011

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karcag SE

Szeged 2011

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · NB II

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Karcag SE	9	−1	11
14	Szeged 2011	8	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Karcag SE

Formation not confirmed

2 D. Szakal

4 M. Kovalovszki

5 A. Z. Gyori

7 D. Szekely

8 K. Varga

19 A. Girsik

22 M. Gyorgye

51 R. Gergely

77 D. Laszlo

92 K. Szucs

97 M. Kohut

Coach · Attila Varga

Substitutes

15 · A. Mona

21 · B. Fabian

23 · L. Fazekas

30 · N. Asztalos

33 · O. Fekete

87 · N. Varga

88 · M. Halacsi

99 · Z. Pap

Szeged 2011

Formation not confirmed

1 I. B. Mate

6 P. Posztobanyi

7 V. Haragos

9 M. Adam

14 A. Szabo

18 D. Miskolczi

22 D. Zimonyi

28 R. Miklo

32 M. Ryashko

55 B. Toth

88 D. Markvart

Coach · Zsolt Laczko

Substitutes

3 · M. Sandor

8 · V. Zvekanov

10 · B. Bodnar

11 · K. Toth-Gabor

17 · M. Zekic

23 · I. A. Szeles

30 · V. Vekony

33 · O. Kalmar

37 · R. Prokop

73 · S. Madi

Our number · karcag se winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market27%

Us36%

~~Market~~27%

We make Karcag SE a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karcag SE v Szeged 2011~~1.07 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 7~~9 v 14

~~The market · Karcag SE win~~27% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Karcag SE win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karcag SE win	36%	27%	+9
Draw	29%	29%	0
Szeged 2011 win	35%	44%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	36%	44%	−8
Both teams to score	42%	50%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	62%	68%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	17%	25%	−8
Karcag SE or draw	65%	56%	+9
Karcag SE clean sheet	35%	–	–
Szeged 2011 clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 11.9 12.9 6.7 2.4 1 13.0 13.0 7.0 2.5 2 6.8 7.1 3.7 3 2.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karcag SE down, Szeged 2011 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,627 NB II matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 75 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karcag SE at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Szeged 2011 away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Karcag SE, 1.06 for Szeged 2011. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAR 1–0 SZE · SZE 2–2 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug

KARCAG SE

DWWLDL3–3 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

SZEGED 2011

LWDDLD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tiszakecske FC	10	+9	22
2	Soroksar	9	+13	20
3	Kecskeméti TE	10	+6	20
4	Mezokovesd-zsory	10	+5	17
5	Kazincbarcikai	9	+5	16
6	Gyirmot SE	9	0	16
7	Ajka	10	+1	15
8	Fehérvár FC	9	+3	12
9	Karcag SE	9	−1	11
10	Szentlőrinc SE	9	−4	11
11	Diosgyori VTK	9	−5	11
12	BVSC	9	−1	10
13	Nagykanizsai ULE	10	−7	9
14	Szeged 2011	8	−2	7
15	Kozarmisleny FC	10	−9	7
16	Csakvar	10	−13	4