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Gyirmot SE v Nagykanizsai ULE

Gyirmot SE

1–0Full time

Nagykanizsai ULE

NB II · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Gyirmot SE 1–0 Nagykanizsai ULE GYIRMOT SE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gyirmot SE win~~46%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.439

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.254

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gyirmot SE win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gyirmot SE was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
1′KICK-OFF Gyirmot SE v Nagykanizsai ULE
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Gyirmot SE
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Gyirmot SE 1–0 Nagykanizsai ULE
43′27′ and it is 1–0: T. Nagy on the scoresheet for Gyirmot SE. 1–0 · 74–19–7
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME Gyirmot SE 1–0 Nagykanizsai ULE
46′SECOND HALF Gyirmot SE 1–0 Nagykanizsai ULE
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Gyirmot SE win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Gyirmot SE
69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Nagykanizsai ULE · On: Y. Gelesh · Off: M. Szabo
69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Nagykanizsai ULE · On: F. Borsos · Off: B. Lorincz
69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Nagykanizsai ULE · On: B. Kovacs · Off: Z. Puskas
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Gyirmot SE · On: I. Tollar · Off: M. Szabo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Nagykanizsai ULE · On: V. Jovan · Off: Z. Garai
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gyirmot SE · On: B. Lanyi · Off: T. Nagy
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gyirmot SE · On: A. Miknyoczki · Off: A. Ivan
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gyirmot SE · On: Z. Vasvari · Off: C. Novak
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Gyirmot SE · On: T. Nemeth · Off: M. Madarasz
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Nagykanizsai ULE
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Gyirmot SE
FTFULL TIME Gyirmot SE 1–0 Nagykanizsai ULE
FTGyirmot SE 1–0 Nagykanizsai ULE · Gyirmot SE win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gyirmot SE win46%

Draw24%

Nagykanizsai ULE win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Gyirmot SE

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Papp

6 D. Pejovic

13 Z. Berecz

15 N. Kiss

19 C. Novak

21 M. Szabo

22 A. Ivan

23 T. Nagy

32 S. Medgyes

78 B. Racz

95 M. Madarasz

Coach · Adam Weitner

Substitutes

5 · B. Lanyi

8 · T. Nemeth

9 · Z. Vasvari

10 · Z. Kalmar

18 · A. Hajdu

24 · B. Kecskes

27 · A. Szarka

35 · A. Albrecht

70 · I. Tollar

73 · Y. Kichun

77 · A. Miknyoczki

90 · D. Csorba

Nagykanizsai ULE

Formation not confirmed

2 T. Magyar

4 Z. Puskas

5 B. Kapornai

9 R. Zsolnai

17 B. Lorincz

19 K. Szanyi

30 Z. Garai

44 R. Stefan

77 M. Szabo

80 M. Major

99 D. Meszaros

Coach · Gyula Jeney

Substitutes

6 · R. Godzsajev-Telman

7 · D. Varga

10 · F. Borsos

11 · V. Jovan

12 · M. Rozsa

18 · M. Pinter

20 · B. Kovacs

21 · P. Varga

25 · P. Kovacs

55 · M. Horvath

61 · D. Mikler

97 · Y. Gelesh

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gyirmot SE

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Papp

6 D. Pejovic

13 Z. Berecz

15 N. Kiss

19 C. Novak

21 M. Szabo

22 A. Ivan

23 T. Nagy

32 S. Medgyes

78 B. Racz

95 M. Madarasz

Coach · Adam Weitner

Substitutes

5 · B. Lanyi

8 · T. Nemeth

9 · Z. Vasvari

10 · Z. Kalmar

18 · A. Hajdu

24 · B. Kecskes

27 · A. Szarka

35 · A. Albrecht

70 · I. Tollar

73 · Y. Kichun

77 · A. Miknyoczki

90 · D. Csorba

Nagykanizsai ULE

Formation not confirmed

2 T. Magyar

4 Z. Puskas

5 B. Kapornai

9 R. Zsolnai

17 B. Lorincz

19 K. Szanyi

30 Z. Garai

44 R. Stefan

77 M. Szabo

80 M. Major

99 D. Meszaros

Coach · Gyula Jeney

Substitutes

6 · R. Godzsajev-Telman

7 · D. Varga

10 · F. Borsos

11 · V. Jovan

12 · M. Rozsa

18 · M. Pinter

20 · B. Kovacs

21 · P. Varga

25 · P. Kovacs

55 · M. Horvath

61 · D. Mikler

97 · Y. Gelesh

Our number · gyirmot se winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

46% The market59%

Us46%

~~Market~~59%

We make Gyirmot SE a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gyirmot se win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gyirmot SE win	46%	59%	−13
Draw	24%	24%	+1
Nagykanizsai ULE win	30%	17%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	52%	51%	+1
Both teams to score	54%	49%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Gyirmot SE or draw	70%	83%	−12
Gyirmot SE clean sheet	31%	–	–
Nagykanizsai ULE clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.3 7.9 4.6 1 10.2 11.3 6.9 2.8 2 7.7 9.0 5.4 2.2 3 4.0 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gyirmot SE down, Nagykanizsai ULE across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,613 NB II matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Gyirmot SE at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nagykanizsai ULE away: 0.75 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Gyirmot SE, 1.20 for Nagykanizsai ULE. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in NB II

GYIRMOT SE

DWLLWL2–2 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–2

NAGYKANIZSAI ULE

LLLLWW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	8	+16	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	8	+7	17
3	Tiszakecske FC	8	+7	16
4	Ajka	7	+3	14
5	Kazincbarcikai	8	+2	13
6	Gyirmot SE	8	−1	13
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	7	+3	12
8	Karcag SE	8	+2	11
9	Szentlőrinc SE	7	−1	10
10	Fehérvár FC	8	0	9
11	Nagykanizsai ULE	8	−3	9
12	Diosgyori VTK	7	−7	7
13	Szeged 2011	7	−2	6
14	BVSC	7	−5	4
15	Kozarmisleny FC	8	−10	4
16	Csakvar	8	−11	4