Fehérvár FC v Ajka prediction · NB II

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Fehérvár FC 1–2 Ajka FEHÉRVÁR FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fehérvár FC win~~48%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.879

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.018

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fehérvár FC win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Fehérvár FC 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–24
1′KICK-OFF Fehérvár FC v Ajka
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Ajka
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Fehérvár FC
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Fehérvár FC
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Fehérvár FC win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
42′Ajka score on 42′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–26–62
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Fehérvár FC 0–1 Ajka
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Fehérvár FC win: 48% at kick-off, 12% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Ajka win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Fehérvár FC win 39%)
43′We said Fehérvár FC at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–26–63
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–26–63
45′Fehérvár FC find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–43–21
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Fehérvár FC 1–1 Ajka
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Fehérvár FC win: 48% at kick-off, 36% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Ajka win 64%)
45′HALF-TIME Fehérvár FC 1–1 Ajka
46′We said Fehérvár FC at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–44–20
46′SECOND HALF Fehérvár FC 1–1 Ajka
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fehérvár FC · On: Z. Nagy · Off: L. Kurdics
50′We said Fehérvár FC at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–46–20
50′A goal for Ajka on 50′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–25–66
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Fehérvár FC 1–2 Ajka
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Fehérvár FC win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Ajka win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 46%)
51′We said Fehérvár FC at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
52′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–25–67
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Fehérvár FC win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Fehérvár FC · On: T. Ekbauer · Off: B. Murka
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Fehérvár FC · On: D. Cipf · Off: K. Kovacs
66′We said Fehérvár FC at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Fehérvár FC · On: D. Kovacs · Off: D. Nagy
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ajka · On: J. Szarka · Off: A. Decsy
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ajka · On: Z. Csizmadia · Off: D. Artner
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Fehérvár FC · On: D. Bartusz · Off: Z. Kojnok
FTFULL TIME Fehérvár FC 1–2 Ajka
FTFehérvár FC 1–2 Ajka · Fehérvár FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fehérvár FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fehérvár FC 48%, draw 27%, Ajka 24%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Fehérvár FC v AjkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Fehérvár FC win48%

Draw27%

Ajka win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fehérvár FC

Ajka

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · NB II

Last match: 17 Oct · NB II

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ajka	10	+1	15
8	Fehérvár FC	10	+2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fehérvár fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

48% The market55%

Us48%

~~Market~~55%

We make Fehérvár FC a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fehérvár FC v Ajka~~1.37 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in NB II this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~8 v 7

~~The market · Fehérvár FC win~~55% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fehérvár FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fehérvár FC win	48%	55%	−7
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Ajka win	24%	19%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	39%	50%	−11
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	65%	73%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	19%	30%	−11
Fehérvár FC or draw	76%	81%	−5
Fehérvár FC clean sheet	42%	–	–
Ajka clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 10.6 9.7 4.1 1 14.8 12.2 5.5 2 9.9 8.5 3.7 3 4.5 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fehérvár FC down, Ajka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 NB II matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fehérvár FC at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ajka away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Fehérvár FC, 0.87 for Ajka. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FEH 1–0 AJK · AJK 1–1 FEH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 22 Aug

FEHÉRVÁR FC

LLWLWL1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1

AJKA

WLWLDL1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	10	+14	23
2	Tiszakecske FC	10	+9	22
3	Kecskeméti TE	10	+6	20
4	Gyirmot SE	10	+1	19
5	Kazincbarcikai	10	+5	17
6	Mezokovesd-zsory	10	+5	17
7	Ajka	10	+1	15
8	Fehérvár FC	10	+2	12
9	Diosgyori VTK	10	−5	12
10	Karcag SE	10	−2	11
11	Szentlőrinc SE	10	−5	11
12	BVSC	9	−1	10
13	Szeged 2011	9	−1	10
14	Nagykanizsai ULE	10	−7	9
15	Kozarmisleny FC	10	−9	7
16	Csakvar	10	−13	4