Diosgyori VTK v Szentlőrinc SE prediction · NB II

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:32

Diosgyori VTK 1–1 Szentlőrinc SE DIOSGYORI VTK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Diosgyori VTK win~~51%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.917

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.017

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Diosgyori VTK win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Diosgyori VTK v Szentlőrinc SE
2′Little has changed for our model: Diosgyori VTK 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Diosgyori VTK win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Diosgyori VTK 0–0 Szentlőrinc SE
46′SECOND HALF Diosgyori VTK 0–0 Szentlőrinc SE
47′We said Diosgyori VTK at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–38–23
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Szentlőrinc SE · On: Z. Csornyei · Off: P. Poor
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Diosgyori VTK win 37%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–43–21
58′58′ and it is 1–0: Diosgyori VTK have scored. 1–0 · 80–17–4
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Diosgyori VTK 1–0 Szentlőrinc SE
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Diosgyori VTK win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Diosgyori VTK win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
59′We said Diosgyori VTK at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Diosgyori VTK win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Diosgyori VTK 1–1 Szentlőrinc SE
70′Szentlőrinc SE find the net on 69′. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–58–16
70′We said Diosgyori VTK at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–58–16
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Diosgyori VTK win: 51% at kick-off, 26% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Diosgyori VTK win 26%)
73′We said Diosgyori VTK at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–62–15
74′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 22–64–14
74′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Szentlőrinc SE · On: M. Jung · Off: R. Gruber
74′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Diosgyori VTK · On: L. Kiss · Off: M. Revesz
74′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Diosgyori VTK · On: A. Borveto · Off: B. Babinszky
74′⚽ GOAL · 69' Diosgyori VTK 1–1 Szentlőrinc SE
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Diosgyori VTK win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
77′We said Diosgyori VTK at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
81′We said Diosgyori VTK at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–9
84′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Diosgyori VTK · On: L. Vass · Off: T. Galantai
84′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Diosgyori VTK · On: G. Holdampf · Off: Z. Medgyes
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Diosgyori VTK win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
85′We said Diosgyori VTK at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Diosgyori VTK · On: Z. Galfi · Off: A. Benyei
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Diosgyori VTK
FTFULL TIME Diosgyori VTK 1–1 Szentlőrinc SE
FTDiosgyori VTK 1–1 Szentlőrinc SE · Diosgyori VTK win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Diosgyori VTK win51%

Draw23%

Szentlőrinc SE win26%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:00

VenueDVTK Stadion

Line-ups

Diosgyori VTK

Szentlőrinc SE

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Diosgyori VTK

Szentlőrinc SE

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Szentlőrinc SE	8	−4	10
11	Diosgyori VTK	8	−5	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Diosgyori VTK

Formation not confirmed

3 C. Szatmari

6 B. Bardos

7 B. Babinszky

9 Z. Medgyes

10 G. Molnar

20 A. Benyei

21 T. Galantai

22 S. Bokros

26 M. Szekszardi

87 M. Revesz

99 D. Grof

Coach · Tamas Feczko

Substitutes

1 · B. Banhegyi

4 · A. Kecskes

8 · L. Vass

11 · Z. Galfi

18 · L. Kiss

19 · B. Szabo

23 · A. Borveto

25 · G. Holdampf

31 · G. Megyeri

47 · M. Mucsanyi

67 · S. Sareczki

86 · L. Adam

Szentlőrinc SE

Formation not confirmed

7 B. Olah

8 A. Rac

14 M. Szolgai

21 P. Kiss-Szeman

27 L. Milovanovic

33 O. Dinnyes

40 A. Samson

42 P. Poor

67 E. Czerna

77 R. Gruber

90 R. Kostyak

Coach · Mark Nikhazi

Substitutes

4 · G. Buta

15 · M. Jung

17 · R. Palfalvi

20 · B. Rideg

22 · G. Bolla

24 · Z. Csornyei

46 · S. Szilard

74 · M. Auerbach

86 · P. Weisz

Our number · diosgyori vtk winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

51% The market62%

Us51%

~~Market~~62%

We make Diosgyori VTK a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · diosgyori vtk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Diosgyori VTK win	51%	62%	−11
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Szentlőrinc SE win	26%	17%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Diosgyori VTK or draw	74%	83%	−9
Diosgyori VTK clean sheet	32%	–	–
Szentlőrinc SE clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.7 6.9 3.8 1 10.1 10.8 6.3 2.5 2 8.3 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 4.8 5.3 3.1 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Diosgyori VTK down, Szentlőrinc SE across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,621 NB II matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Diosgyori VTK at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Szentlőrinc SE away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Diosgyori VTK, 1.15 for Szentlőrinc SE. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DIO 5–1 SZE · SZE 2–0 DIO · DIO 1–0 SZE · SZE 1–2 DIO

Form · last six in NB II

DIOSGYORI VTK

DLLLWW1–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0

SZENTLŐRINC SE

WLLLWL3–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	9	+13	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	9	+8	20
3	Tiszakecske FC	9	+8	19
4	Kazincbarcikai	9	+5	16
5	Gyirmot SE	9	0	16
6	Ajka	8	+2	14
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	8	+3	13
8	Fehérvár FC	9	+3	12
9	Karcag SE	9	−1	11
10	Szentlőrinc SE	8	−4	10
11	Diosgyori VTK	8	−5	10
12	Nagykanizsai ULE	9	−4	9
13	BVSC	8	−2	7
14	Szeged 2011	8	−2	7
15	Csakvar	9	−12	4
16	Kozarmisleny FC	9	−12	4