BVSC v Tiszakecske FC prediction · NB II

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

BVSC 2–2 Tiszakecske FC BVSC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BVSC win~~44%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.825

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.782

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BVSC win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: BVSC was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF BVSC v Tiszakecske FC
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was BVSC win 37%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' BVSC win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME BVSC 0–0 Tiszakecske FC
46′SECOND HALF BVSC 0–0 Tiszakecske FC
49′We said BVSC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–43–24
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–48–22
57′We said BVSC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
60′A goal for Tiszakecske FC on 60′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–22–72
60′We said BVSC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–22–72
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' BVSC 0–1 Tiszakecske FC
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' BVSC win: 44% at kick-off, 6% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Tiszakecske FC win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 52%)
62′Tiszakecske FC score on 61′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
62′We said BVSC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
62′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' BVSC 0–2 Tiszakecske FC
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' BVSC win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
65′BVSC find the net on 65′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–75
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' BVSC 1–2 Tiszakecske FC
66′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–20–76
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' BVSC
73′A goal for BVSC on 73′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 19–66–15
73′We said BVSC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–66–15
73′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 19–66–15
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' BVSC 2–2 Tiszakecske FC
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' BVSC win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Tiszakecske FC win 81%)
79′We said BVSC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–76–11
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' BVSC win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' BVSC win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME BVSC 2–2 Tiszakecske FC
FTBVSC 2–2 Tiszakecske FC · BVSC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BVSC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BVSC 44%, draw 26%, Tiszakecske FC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on BVSC v Tiszakecske FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

BVSC win44%

Draw26%

Tiszakecske FC win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BVSC

Tiszakecske FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · NB II

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tiszakecske FC	10	+9	22
12	BVSC	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bvsc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market36%

Us44%

~~Market~~36%

We make BVSC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BVSC v Tiszakecske FC~~1.37 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in NB II this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 22~~12 v 2

~~The market · BVSC win~~36% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BVSC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BVSC win	44%	36%	+8
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Tiszakecske FC win	30%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	49%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
BVSC or draw	70%	64%	+6
BVSC clean sheet	34%	–	–
Tiszakecske FC clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.5 9.6 5.1 1 12.1 12.3 6.8 2.5 2 8.0 8.6 4.7 3 3.7 4.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BVSC down, Tiszakecske FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,631 NB II matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 79 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BVSC at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tiszakecske FC away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for BVSC, 1.09 for Tiszakecske FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BVS 3–1 TIS · TIS 1–0 BVS · TIS 1–1 BVS · BVS 0–0 TIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 22 Aug

BVSC

LWLLWW1–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 5–2 · 2–1

TISZAKECSKE FC

WWWDWW4–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 4–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	10	+14	23
2	Tiszakecske FC	10	+9	22
3	Kecskeméti TE	10	+6	20
4	Gyirmot SE	10	+1	19
5	Kazincbarcikai	10	+5	17
6	Mezokovesd-zsory	10	+5	17
7	Ajka	10	+1	15
8	Fehérvár FC	10	+2	12
9	Diosgyori VTK	10	−5	12
10	Karcag SE	10	−2	11
11	Szentlőrinc SE	10	−5	11
12	BVSC	9	−1	10
13	Szeged 2011	9	−1	10
14	Nagykanizsai ULE	10	−7	9
15	Kozarmisleny FC	10	−9	7
16	Csakvar	10	−13	4