BVSC v Soroksar prediction · NB II

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:18

BVSC 5–2 Soroksar BVSC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BVSC win~~38%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.587

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.798

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BVSC win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: BVSC was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF BVSC v Soroksar
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' BVSC
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' BVSC 1–0 Soroksar
24′⚽ GOAL · 25' BVSC 1–0 Soroksar
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' BVSC 2–0 Soroksar · B. Farkas
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' BVSC 1–0 Soroksar
45′SECOND HALF BVSC 1–0 Soroksar
46′HALF-TIME BVSC 1–0 Soroksar
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' BVSC 2–0 Soroksar · B. Farkas
51′⚽ GOAL · 52' BVSC 2–0 Soroksar
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' BVSC 3–0 Soroksar · C. Papp
61′⚽ GOAL · 62' BVSC 3–0 Soroksar
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' BVSC 3–0 Soroksar
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' BVSC 3–1 Soroksar · A. Denes
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' BVSC 3–1 Soroksar
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' BVSC · On: O. Hajba · Off: M. Igricz
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Soroksar · On: A. Ven · Off: A. Halmai
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' BVSC 4–1 Soroksar · M. Bencze
78′⚽ GOAL · 80' BVSC 4–1 Soroksar
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' BVSC 4–2 Soroksar · M. Bencze
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' BVSC 4–2 Soroksar
86′⚽ GOAL · 83' BVSC 4–2 Soroksar
87′🟨 YELLOW · 16' G. Ominger · BVSC
87′⚽ GOAL · 25' BVSC 4–2 Soroksar · B. Farkas
87′⚽ GOAL · 52' BVSC 4–2 Soroksar · C. Papp
87′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Soroksar · On: M. Bencze · Off: M. Vattay
87′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Soroksar · On: P. Hidi · Off: L. Lukacs
87′⚽ GOAL · 62' BVSC 4–2 Soroksar · A. Denes
87′⚽ GOAL · 69' BVSC 4–2 Soroksar · M. Bencze
87′SUBSTITUTION · 74' BVSC · On: O. Hajba · Off: M. Igricz
87′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Soroksar · On: A. Ven · Off: A. Halmai
87′⚽ GOAL · 80' BVSC 4–2 Soroksar · K. Csernik
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' BVSC · On: P. Ivady · Off: P. Bacsa
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' BVSC · On: V. Sejben · Off: K. Csernik
87′⚽ GOAL · 83' BVSC 4–2 Soroksar · Z. Kalnoki-Kis
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' BVSC 5–2 Soroksar · Z. Kalnoki-Kis
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' BVSC 5–2 Soroksar
FTFULL TIME BVSC 5–2 Soroksar
FTBVSC 5–2 Soroksar · BVSC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

BVSC win38%

Draw26%

Soroksar win36%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:45

Line-ups

BVSC

Soroksar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

BVSC

Soroksar

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	8	+16	20
14	BVSC	7	−5	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

BVSC

Formation not confirmed

9 P. Bacsa

12 Z. Petroff

15 N. Benko-Biro

20 G. Ominger

22 K. Csernik

24 A. Denes

55 R. Lehoczky

77 C. Papp

82 M. Igricz

90 Vinicius

97 B. Farkas

Coach · Adam Kincses

Substitutes

1 · G. Megyeri

6 · P. Ivady

7 · P. Torocsik

8 · V. Sejben

11 · S. Dulo

25 · A. Kiraly

40 · M. Katona

57 · A. Werderitsch

88 · O. Hajba

Soroksar

Formation not confirmed

4 A. Kekesi

71 C. Lakatos

7 L. Lukacs

11 K. Kobol

12 L. Jova

15 M. Vattay

20 B. Lovrencsics

23 Z. Kalnoki-Kis

25 R. Szasz

31 K. Horvath

32 A. Halmai

Coach · Gabor Korolovszky

Substitutes

1 · M. Apro

2 · G. Ferencz

8 · A. Vass

14 · A. Ven

16 · A. Takacs

18 · J. Ronaszeki

24 · M. Bencze

26 · P. Hidi

30 · R. William

Our number · bvsc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:26 · locked at kick-off

38% The market27%

Us38%

~~Market~~27%

We make BVSC a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bvsc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BVSC win	38%	27%	+10
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Soroksar win	36%	43%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	46%	0
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
BVSC or draw	64%	57%	+7
BVSC clean sheet	29%	–	–
Soroksar clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.0 10.3 6.2 2.6 1 10.6 12.3 7.8 3.3 2 6.6 8.0 4.9 2.1 3 2.8 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BVSC down, Soroksar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,620 NB II matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BVSC at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Soroksar away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for BVSC, 1.24 for Soroksar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SOR 2–1 BVS · BVS 2–1 SOR · SOR 3–3 BVS · BVS 0–0 SOR

Form · last six in NB II

BVSC

LLLWLL0–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

SOROKSAR

WWWWWD4–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 6–0 · 3–0 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	8	+16	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	9	+8	20
3	Tiszakecske FC	9	+8	19
4	Kazincbarcikai	9	+5	16
5	Gyirmot SE	9	0	16
6	Ajka	8	+2	14
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	8	+3	13
8	Fehérvár FC	9	+3	12
9	Karcag SE	9	−1	11
10	Szentlőrinc SE	8	−4	10
11	Diosgyori VTK	8	−5	10
12	Nagykanizsai ULE	9	−4	9
13	Szeged 2011	8	−2	7
14	BVSC	7	−5	4
15	Csakvar	9	−12	4
16	Kozarmisleny FC	9	−12	4