Ajka v BVSC prediction · NB II

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Ajka 1–2 BVSC AJKA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ajka win~~36%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.663

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.680

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ajka just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ajka 36%, draw 30%, BVSC 34%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Ajka v BVSCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ajka win36%

Draw30%

BVSC win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Ajka

BVSC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ajka

BVSC

3Days since last match5

Last match: 14 Oct · NB II

Last match: 12 Oct · NB II

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ajka	9	+2	15
13	BVSC	8	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ajka

Formation not confirmed

25 B. Simon

5 Z. Kenderes

7 B. Szabo

10 D. Artner

15 N. Csorba

24 A. Decsy

29 B. S. Bacsa

30 L. Doncsecz

34 Z. Tar

37 B. Bocskay

71 D. Csoka

Coach · Balint Gaal

Substitutes

44 · M. Gyurjan

11 · A. Kopacsi

17 · J. Szarka

19 · Z. Csizmadia

49 · A. Garamszegi Geczy

77 · M. Kelemen

80 · M. Papp

95 · F. Pinter

BVSC

Formation not confirmed

12 Z. Petroff

9 P. Bacsa

15 N. Benko-Biro

20 G. Ominger

22 K. Csernik

24 A. Denes

25 A. Kiraly

55 R. Lehoczky

82 M. Igricz

90 Vinicius

97 B. Farkas

Coach · Adam Kincses

Substitutes

1 · G. Megyeri

57 · A. Werderitsch

6 · P. Ivady

7 · P. Torocsik

8 · V. Sejben

11 · S. Dulo

40 · M. Katona

Our number · ajka winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:38 · locked at kick-off

36% The market38%

Us36%

~~Market~~38%

We make Ajka a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ajka v BVSC~~1.03 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 7~~7 v 13

~~The market · Ajka win~~38% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ajka win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ajka win	36%	38%	−2
Draw	30%	29%	+1
BVSC win	34%	33%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	33%	44%	−11
Both teams to score	39%	50%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	59%	69%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	15%	23%	−8
Ajka or draw	66%	67%	−1
Ajka clean sheet	38%	–	–
BVSC clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 13.5 13.4 6.4 2.1 1 14.0 13.1 6.5 2.2 2 7.1 6.8 3.3 3 2.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ajka down, BVSC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,623 NB II matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB II matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ajka at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). BVSC away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Ajka, 0.98 for BVSC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~1 of 7

~~Last meetings~~AJK 2–2 BVS · AJK 0–2 BVS · BVS 4–0 AJK · BVS 0–0 AJK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB II this season · since 15 Aug

AJKA

WWLWLD2–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 1–1

BVSC

LLWLLW0–1 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Soroksar	9	+13	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	10	+6	20
3	Tiszakecske FC	9	+8	19
4	Mezokovesd-zsory	10	+5	17
5	Kazincbarcikai	9	+5	16
6	Gyirmot SE	9	0	16
7	Ajka	9	+2	15
8	Fehérvár FC	9	+3	12
9	Karcag SE	9	−1	11
10	Szentlőrinc SE	9	−4	11
11	Diosgyori VTK	9	−5	11
12	Nagykanizsai ULE	10	−7	9
13	BVSC	8	−2	7
14	Szeged 2011	8	−2	7
15	Kozarmisleny FC	10	−9	7
16	Csakvar	9	−12	4