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Zalaegerszegi TE v Nyiregyhaza

Zalaegerszegi TE

5–1Full time

Nyiregyhaza

NB I · SUN 11 OCT · ZTE Arena

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:19

Zalaegerszegi TE 5–1 Nyiregyhaza ZALAEGERSZEGI TE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zalaegerszegi TE win~~46%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.435

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.662

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zalaegerszegi TE win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Zalaegerszegi TE was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Zalaegerszegi TE v Nyiregyhaza
5′Much as we predicted: Zalaegerszegi TE was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–28
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Zalaegerszegi TE 0–1 Nyiregyhaza · Matyas Katona
18′Matyas Katona scores for Nyiregyhaza on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–24–56
19′Matyas Katona scores for Nyiregyhaza on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–24–56
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Zalaegerszegi TE win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Nyiregyhaza win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Zalaegerszegi TE win 20%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Zalaegerszegi TE win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Zalaegerszegi TE win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Nyiregyhaza win 28%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Zalaegerszegi TE win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Nyiregyhaza win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Zalaegerszegi TE win 20%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Zalaegerszegi TE win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Nyiregyhaza win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Zalaegerszegi TE win 20%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Zalaegerszegi TE win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Nyiregyhaza win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Zalaegerszegi TE win 20%)
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Matheus Machado · Zalaegerszegi TE
45′HALF-TIME Zalaegerszegi TE 0–1 Nyiregyhaza
46′SECOND HALF Zalaegerszegi TE 0–1 Nyiregyhaza
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Zalaegerszegi TE 1–1 Nyiregyhaza · Matheus Machado
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Barna Benczenleitner · Nyiregyhaza
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Zalaegerszegi TE 2–1 Nyiregyhaza · Fabricio Amato
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Maxsuell Alegria · Zalaegerszegi TE
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Nyiregyhaza · On: Csaba Máté · Off: Zsombor Hös Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Nyiregyhaza · On: Balázs Manner · Off: Barna Benczenleitner Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Nyiregyhaza · On: batoum · Off: Marko Regža Corrected
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' András Mátyás Csonka · Zalaegerszegi TE
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' György Toma · Nyiregyhaza
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Zalaegerszegi TE 3–1 Nyiregyhaza · Fabricio Amato
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Zalaegerszegi TE 3–1 Nyiregyhaza · Danylo Krevsun
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Nyiregyhaza · On: Žan Medved · Off: György Toma Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Zalaegerszegi TE · On: Bence Kiss · Off: Maxsuell Alegria Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Zalaegerszegi TE · On: Arthur Henrique Marques Machado · Off: Bence Babos Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Zalaegerszegi TE · On: Lucas Alfonso · Off: Matheus Machado Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Lucas Alfonso · Zalaegerszegi TE
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Zalaegerszegi TE 4–1 Nyiregyhaza · Arthur Henrique Marques Machado
90′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Zalaegerszegi TE · On: Aiden Harangi · Off: András Mátyás Csonka Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Zalaegerszegi TE · On: Fernando José Vera García · Off: Danylo Krevsun Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Zalaegerszegi TE 4–1 Nyiregyhaza · Arthur Henrique Marques Machado
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Zalaegerszegi TE 5–1 Nyiregyhaza · Arthur Henrique Marques Machado
FTFULL TIME Zalaegerszegi TE 5–1 Nyiregyhaza
FTZalaegerszegi TE 5–1 Nyiregyhaza · Zalaegerszegi TE win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Zalaegerszegi TE win46%

Draw27%

Nyiregyhaza win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:45

VenueZTE Arena

Line-ups

Zalaegerszegi TE

4-4-2

Nyiregyhaza

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Zalaegerszegi TE

Nyiregyhaza

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Nyiregyhaza	8	−5	8
12	Zalaegerszegi TE	8	−10	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zalaegerszegi TE

4-4-2

1 B. Gundel-Takacs

8 A. Csonka

13 T. Penalba

33 Diogo Antonio

18 J. Calderon

74 B. Babos

30 F. Amato

6 E. Kujovic

23 Maxsuell Alegria

9 M. Machado

7 D. Krevsun

Coach · Filipe Celikkaya

Substitutes

3 · F. Vera

4 · J. Peraza

2 · A. Harangi

17 · Guilherme Teixeira

32 · L. Alfonso

10 · B. Kiss

77 · Arthur Henrique

15 · N. Elosu

37 · B. Daniel

14 · J. Madaki

47 · Q. Tchicamboud

21 · T. Maigana

Nyiregyhaza

4-4-2

57 M. Dala

24 V. Jovanov

39 R. Zikovic

31 L. Katona

66 B. Benczenleitner

8 Z. Hos

6 Y. Toma

12 M. Kovacs

70 M. Katona

9 M. Kvasina

23 M. Regza

Coach · Tamas Bodog

Substitutes

22 · M. Molnar

99 · A. Alaxai

17 · C. Mate

7 · N. Antonov

25 · S. Ingolitsch

74 · D. Kaczvinszki

55 · B. Katona

21 · Z. Vukk

10 · B. Manner

26 · Z. Medved

29 · J. Batoum

Our number · zalaegerszegi te winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

46% The market34%

Us46%

~~Market~~34%

We make Zalaegerszegi TE a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zalaegerszegi te win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zalaegerszegi TE win	46%	34%	+12
Draw	27%	27%	0
Nyiregyhaza win	27%	39%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	51%	54%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−4
Zalaegerszegi TE or draw	73%	61%	+12
Zalaegerszegi TE clean sheet	32%	–	–
Nyiregyhaza clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.8 6.3 4.3 1 9.1 13.0 6.8 2.6 2 8.1 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 4.3 4.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zalaegerszegi TE down, Nyiregyhaza across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,040 NB I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zalaegerszegi TE at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nyiregyhaza away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Zalaegerszegi TE, 1.15 for Nyiregyhaza. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NYI 2–1 ZAL · ZAL 0–1 NYI · NYI 3–1 ZAL · NYI 0–0 ZAL

Form · last six in NB I

ZALAEGERSZEGI TE

LLLLWL0–5 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

NYIREGYHAZA

LWLDLD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vasas	9	+6	15
2	Gyori ETO FC	8	+6	15
3	Puskas Academy	8	+3	15
4	Ujpest	8	+4	14
5	Paks	9	+2	14
6	Ferencvarosi TC	8	+3	13
7	Kisvarda FC	9	−1	10
8	Debreceni VSC	9	−3	10
9	MTK Budapest	9	−2	9
10	Nyiregyhaza	8	−5	8
11	Budapest Honved	7	−3	6
12	Zalaegerszegi TE	8	−10	6