Zalaegerszegi TE v MTK Budapest prediction · NB I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Zalaegerszegi TEDrawMTK Budapest

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Zalaegerszegi TE 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zalaegerszegi TE are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zalaegerszegi TE 44%, draw 26%, MTK Budapest 30%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Zalaegerszegi TE v MTK BudapestBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Zalaegerszegi TE win44%

Draw26%

MTK Budapest win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zalaegerszegi TE

MTK Budapest

7Days since last match15

Last match: 24 Oct · NB I

Last match: 16 Oct · NB I

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	11	−9	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zalaegerszegi te winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Zalaegerszegi TE a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zalaegerszegi TE v MTK Budapest~~1.67 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~11 v 8

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zalaegerszegi TE win	44%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
MTK Budapest win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Zalaegerszegi TE or draw	70%	–	–
Zalaegerszegi TE clean sheet	26%	–	–
MTK Budapest clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 5.9 5.7 4.4 1 7.3 11.9 7.4 3.3 2 6.8 9.1 6.1 2.8 3 3.8 5.1 3.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zalaegerszegi TE down, MTK Budapest across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,052 NB I matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zalaegerszegi TE at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). MTK Budapest away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Zalaegerszegi TE, 1.35 for MTK Budapest. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MTK 3–0 ZAL · MTK 3–0 ZAL · ZAL 1–1 MTK · MTK 1–0 ZAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 22 Aug

ZALAEGERSZEGI TE

LWLWLD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 1–1

MTK BUDAPEST

WDLLLW2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyori ETO FC	11	+7	21
2	Puskas Academy	10	+5	21
3	Debreceni VSC	11	+2	16
4	Vasas	10	+5	15
5	Ujpest	11	+2	15
6	Ferencvarosi TC	9	+3	14
7	Paks	10	+1	14
8	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
9	Kisvarda FC	11	−1	12
10	Budapest Honved	10	−4	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	11	−9	10
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8