Vasas v Paks prediction · NB I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VasasDrawPaks

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Vasas 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vasas just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Vasas 38%, draw 25%, Paks 37%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Vasas v PaksBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Vasas win38%

Draw25%

Paks win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:15

RoundMatchday 11

VenueIllovszky Rudolf Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vasas

Paks

9Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · NB I

Last match: 17 Oct · NB I

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Vasas	10	+5	15
7	Paks	10	+1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vasas winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Vasas a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vasas v Paks~~1.60 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 14~~4 v 7

~~The market · Vasas win~~41% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vasas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vasas win	38%	41%	−3
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Paks win	37%	35%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	69%	−7
Both teams to score	64%	69%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	85%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	49%	−9
Vasas or draw	63%	65%	−2
Vasas clean sheet	21%	–	–
Paks clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.1 5.8 5.3 2.8 1 5.7 11.2 8.2 4.4 2 5.3 8.3 6.5 3.5 3 2.8 4.5 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vasas down, Paks across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,052 NB I matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vasas at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Paks away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Vasas, 1.59 for Paks. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VAS 2–2 PAK · VAS 2–3 PAK · PAK 2–3 VAS · PAK 0–1 VAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 21 Aug

VASAS

LLWWDL0–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

PAKS

WDLWWL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyori ETO FC	11	+7	21
2	Puskas Academy	10	+5	21
3	Debreceni VSC	11	+2	16
4	Vasas	10	+5	15
5	Ujpest	11	+2	15
6	Ferencvarosi TC	9	+3	14
7	Paks	10	+1	14
8	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
9	Kisvarda FC	11	−1	12
10	Budapest Honved	10	−4	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	11	−9	10
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8