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Vasas v Kisvarda FC

Vasas

1–1Full time

Kisvarda FC

NB I · SAT 10 OCT · Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Vasas 1–1 Kisvarda FC VASAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Vasas win~~46%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.807

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.897

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vasas win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vasas 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
1′KICK-OFF Vasas v Kisvarda FC
45′SECOND HALF Vasas 0–0 Kisvarda FC
47′HALF-TIME Vasas 0–0 Kisvarda FC
48′10.0 shots for Vasas, 0.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–41–23
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Vasas win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Vasas win 36%)
63′⚽ GOAL · 61' Vasas 1–0 Kisvarda FC · Milan Tóth
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kisvarda FC · On: Bence Bíró · Off: Christián Herc Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kisvarda FC · On: Miroszláv Babják · Off: Gennadiy Szikszai Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kisvarda FC · On: Pascal Yadikaobi Okoronkwo · Off: Marko Matanovic Corrected
71′Vasas ahead on 61′ through Milan Tóth. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Vasas win: 46% at kick-off, 84% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Vasas win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kisvarda FC · On: Teslim Abdulateef Balogun · Off: Jasmin Mešanović Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Vasas · On: C. Molnár · Off: Márk Kovácsréti Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' C. Molnár · Vasas
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vasas · On: Bence Janos Petho · Off: Márk Koszta Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Kisvarda FC · On: Amos Youga · Off: Hianga'a M'Bock Corrected
85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Áron Doktorics · Vasas
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Vasas 1–1 Kisvarda FC · Milan Tóth
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Vasas 1–1 Kisvarda FC · Bence Bíró (assist Teslim Abdulateef Balogun)
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Vasas · On: Botond Baráth · Off: Patrick Iyinbor Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Vasas · On: Dominik Balazs Sztojka · Off: B. Rab Corrected
FTFULL TIME Vasas 1–1 Kisvarda FC
FTVasas 1–1 Kisvarda FC · Vasas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vasas win46%

Draw28%

Kisvarda FC win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:45

Venue · Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vasas

4-2-3-1

87 M. Engedi

4 B. Pavkovics

57 P. Iyinbor

17 D. Csoka

14 A. Doktorics

15 S. Hidi

16 B. Rab

10 M. Kovacsreti

88 J. Urblik

77 M. Toth

9 M. Koszta

Coach · Gabor Eros

Substitutes

26 · J. Uram

36 · B. Barath

68 · A. Girsik

22 · V. Gey

24 · S. Mezei

6 · D. Sztojka

8 · B. Z. Bano-Szabo

29 · B. Petho

7 · A. Rado

18 · G. Palinkas

84 · R. Horvath

89 · C. Molnar

Kisvarda FC

4-1-4-1

23 I. Popovych

55 K. Nagy

42 T. Lippai

25 B. Serbecic

10 D. Soltesz

80 H. Mbock

11 M. Matanovic

24 C. Herc

14 B. Melnyk

21 H. Szikszai

27 J. Mesanovic

Coach · Attila Supka

Substitutes

32 · Z. Papp

4 · M. Chlumecky

18 · K. Kormendi

37 · M. Babyak

70 · L. Szor

22 · A. Youga

6 · M. Osztrovka

9 · B. Molnar

86 · S. Novothny

29 · B. Biro

45 · T. Balogun

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vasas

4-2-3-1

87 M. Engedi

4 B. Pavkovics

57 P. Iyinbor

17 D. Csoka

14 A. Doktorics

15 S. Hidi

16 B. Rab

10 M. Kovacsreti

88 J. Urblik

77 M. Toth

9 M. Koszta

Coach · Gabor Eros

Substitutes

26 · J. Uram

36 · B. Barath

68 · A. Girsik

22 · V. Gey

24 · S. Mezei

6 · D. Sztojka

8 · B. Z. Bano-Szabo

29 · B. Petho

7 · A. Rado

18 · G. Palinkas

84 · R. Horvath

89 · C. Molnar

Kisvarda FC

4-1-4-1

23 I. Popovych

55 K. Nagy

42 T. Lippai

25 B. Serbecic

10 D. Soltesz

80 H. Mbock

11 M. Matanovic

24 C. Herc

14 B. Melnyk

21 H. Szikszai

27 J. Mesanovic

Coach · Attila Supka

Substitutes

32 · Z. Papp

4 · M. Chlumecky

18 · K. Kormendi

37 · M. Babyak

70 · L. Szor

22 · A. Youga

6 · M. Osztrovka

9 · B. Molnar

86 · S. Novothny

29 · B. Biro

45 · T. Balogun

Our number · vasas winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

46% The market53%

Us46%

~~Market~~53%

We make Vasas a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vasas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vasas win	46%	53%	−7
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Kisvarda FC win	26%	22%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	34%	−7
Vasas or draw	74%	78%	−4
Vasas clean sheet	33%	–	–
Kisvarda FC clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.5 6.9 4.4 1 9.8 13.0 6.6 2.4 2 8.4 9.1 5.0 3 4.4 4.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vasas down, Kisvarda FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,037 NB I matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vasas at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kisvarda FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Vasas, 1.10 for Kisvarda FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:39. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KIS 2–1 VAS · VAS 2–2 KIS · KIS 2–0 VAS

Form · last six in NB I

VASAS

WWLLWW5–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 4–2

KISVARDA FC

LLDDWL2–4 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyori ETO FC	8	+6	15
2	Puskas Academy	8	+3	15
3	Vasas	8	+6	14
4	Ujpest	8	+4	14
5	Ferencvarosi TC	7	+3	12
6	Paks	8	−1	11
7	MTK Budapest	8	+1	9
8	Kisvarda FC	8	−1	9
9	Debreceni VSC	8	−3	9
10	Nyiregyhaza	8	−5	8
11	Budapest Honved	7	−3	6
12	Zalaegerszegi TE	8	−10	6