Ujpest v Puskas Academy prediction · NB I

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 21:02

Ujpest 0–1 Puskas Academy PUSKAS ACADEMY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Puskas Academy win~~40%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.533

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Puskas Academy win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Puskas Academy was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–27–40
1′KICK-OFF Ujpest v Puskas Academy
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Bendegúz Farkas · Puskas Academy
13′SUBSTITUTION · 13' Puskas Academy · On: Barna Pál · Off: Roland Szolnoki
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Aljosa Matko · Ujpest
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Puskas Academy win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Ujpest 0–0 Puskas Academy
46′SECOND HALF Ujpest 0–0 Puskas Academy
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Krisztofer Horvath · Ujpest
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Barna Pál · Puskas Academy
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Puskas Academy · On: Urho Nissilä · Off: Michael okeke
51′Ujpest have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 27–42–32
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Puskas Academy win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 26–44–30
59′We said Puskas Academy at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 24–47–28
62′We published Puskas Academy at 40%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 4–19–77
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Ujpest 0–1 Puskas Academy
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Puskas Academy win: 40% at kick-off, 77% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Puskas Academy win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
63′András Németh scores for Puskas Academy on 62′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–77
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Ujpest · On: Ábel Krajcsovics · Off: Krisztofer Horvath
67′Ujpest have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–79
68′We published Puskas Academy at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Puskas Academy win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ujpest · On: Gergő Bodnár · Off: Ferenc Ujváry
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ujpest · On: Arne Maier · Off: Etienne Amenyido
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ujpest · On: Muhamed Tijani · Off: Gleofilo Vlijter
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Puskas Academy · On: Bence vekony · Off: Palkó Dárdai
76′We published Puskas Academy at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ujpest · On: Tizian Valentino Scharmer · Off: Matija Ljujic
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Puskas Academy · On: Lamin Colley · Off: András Németh
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Puskas Academy · On: Z. Varga · Off: Martin Kern
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Z. Varga · Puskas Academy
82′We published Puskas Academy at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Puskas Academy win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Lamin Colley · Puskas Academy
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Laros Duarte · Puskas Academy
86′A red card for Puskas Academy on 84′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 0–6–93
86′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Lamin Colley · Puskas Academy
87′Ujpest have had 18 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–6–94
89′We published Puskas Academy at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Urho Nissilä · Puskas Academy
95′Ujpest have had 20 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Ujpest 0–1 Puskas Academy
FTUjpest 0–1 Puskas Academy · Puskas Academy win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Puskas Academy are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ujpest 32%, draw 27%, Puskas Academy 40%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Ujpest v Puskas AcademyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ujpest win32%

Draw27%

Puskas Academy win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueSzusza Ferenc Stadion

Line-ups

Ujpest

4-2-3-1

Puskas Academy

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ujpest

Puskas Academy

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · NB I

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ujpest

4-2-3-1

1 P. Szappanos

36 Ferenc Ujvary

3 Heitor

94 P. Stronati

20 M. Zeke

88 M. Ljujić

8 N. Szendrei

17 A. Matko

14 E. Amenyido

11 K. Horváth

39 G. Vlijter

Coach · Z. Szélesi

Substitutes

26 · M. Tijani

45 · A. Ademi

23 · D. Banai

2 · J. Bodnár

5 · A. Fiola

27 · Á. Krajcsovics

10 · A. Maier

15 · M. Máté

43 · Márton Milán Varga

19 · P. M. Balladom

30 · João Nunes

21 · T. Scharmer

Puskas Academy

4-4-2

72 B. Lehoczki

88 B. Farkas

14 W. Golla

21 G. Harutyunyan

22 R. Szolnoki

10 P. Dárdai

6 L. Duarte

4 Michael Okeke

8 D. Lukacs

90 A. Németh

74 M. Kern

Coach · L. Babó

Substitutes

16 · U. Nissilä

77 · K. Mondovics

1 · T. Markek

9 · L. Colley

20 · M. Soisalo

18 · B. Vekony

66 · Z. Varga

80 · Z. Krupa

51 · Žiga Kosi

24 · B. Pál

Our number · puskas academy winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market32%

Us40%

~~Market~~32%

We make Puskas Academy a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ujpest v Puskas Academy~~1.33 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~4 v 1

~~The market · Puskas Academy win~~32% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Puskas Academy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ujpest win	32%	42%	−10
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Puskas Academy win	40%	32%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	54%	60%	−6
Both teams to score	58%	62%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	39%	−8
Ujpest or draw	60%	68%	−8
Ujpest clean sheet	22%	–	–
Puskas Academy clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.0 7.8 6.7 3.4 1 6.8 12.8 8.8 4.4 2 5.2 7.8 5.8 2.9 3 2.3 3.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ujpest down, Puskas Academy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,044 NB I matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ujpest at home: 2.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Puskas Academy away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Ujpest, 1.50 for Puskas Academy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PUS 2–0 UJP · UJP 0–1 PUS · PUS 0–0 UJP · UJP 1–1 PUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 15 Aug

UJPEST

DLWDWD1–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

PUSKAS ACADEMY

WWLLWW3–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Puskas Academy	9	+4	18
2	Vasas	10	+5	15
3	Gyori ETO FC	9	+5	15
4	Ujpest	9	+4	15
5	Paks	9	+2	14
6	Ferencvarosi TC	8	+3	13
7	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
8	Kisvarda FC	9	−1	10
9	Budapest Honved	9	−2	10
10	Debreceni VSC	9	−3	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	9	−6	9
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8