Puskas Academy v Nyiregyhaza prediction · NB I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Puskas AcademyDrawNyiregyhaza

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Puskas Academy 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Puskas Academy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Puskas Academy 58%, draw 24%, Nyiregyhaza 18%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Puskas Academy v NyiregyhazaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Puskas Academy win58%

Draw24%

Nyiregyhaza win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePancho Aréna

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Puskas Academy

Nyiregyhaza

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · NB I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · puskas academy winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

58% The market48%

Us58%

~~Market~~48%

We make Puskas Academy a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Puskas Academy v Nyiregyhaza~~1.84 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 8~~1 v 12

~~The market · Puskas Academy win~~48% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Puskas Academy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Puskas Academy win	58%	48%	+10
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Nyiregyhaza win	18%	26%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	59%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	36%	−6
Puskas Academy or draw	82%	74%	+8
Puskas Academy clean sheet	39%	–	–
Nyiregyhaza clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.1 5.0 2.8 1 10.5 11.6 5.0 2 10.5 9.8 4.6 3 6.4 6.0 2.8 4 3.0 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Puskas Academy down, Nyiregyhaza across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,049 NB I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Puskas Academy at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nyiregyhaza away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Puskas Academy, 0.94 for Nyiregyhaza. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PUS 1–2 NYI · NYI 1–1 PUS · PUS 3–2 NYI · NYI 0–2 PUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 22 Aug

PUSKAS ACADEMY

WLLWWW1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

NYIREGYHAZA

LDLDLL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Puskas Academy	10	+5	21
2	Gyori ETO FC	10	+6	18
3	Debreceni VSC	11	+2	16
4	Vasas	10	+5	15
5	Ujpest	10	+3	15
6	Ferencvarosi TC	9	+3	14
7	Paks	10	+1	14
8	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
9	Kisvarda FC	10	−1	11
10	Budapest Honved	10	−4	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	10	−9	9
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8