Home › Football › NB I › Paks v MTK Budapest

Paks v MTK Budapest

Paks

3–0Full time

MTK Budapest

NB I · SAT 10 OCT · Fehérvári úti stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:01

Paks 3–0 MTK Budapest PAKS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paks win~~55%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.298

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.406

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paks win at 55%.
2′Much as we predicted: Paks was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–20–24
14′Much as we predicted: Paks was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
31′19′ and it is 1–0: Ákos Kinyik on the scoresheet for Paks. 1–0 · 76–16–8
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 76% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 76% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 76% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 76% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 76% now
39′19′ and it is 1–0: Ákos Kinyik on the scoresheet for Paks. 1–0 · 76–16–7
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 76% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
45′SECOND HALF Paks 1–0 MTK Budapest
46′HALF-TIME Paks 1–0 MTK Budapest
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Paks win: 55% at kick-off, 76% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' MTK Budapest · On: István Bognár · Off: Kristof Hinora Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' MTK Budapest · On: Soma Szuhodovszki · Off: Gyorgy Komaromi Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Paks · On: Kevin Horvath · Off: Balázs Balogh Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' MTK Budapest · On: Benedek Varju · Off: Vilius Armalas Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Paks · On: Barna Tóth · Off: Jozsef Szalai Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Paks · On: Milan Pető · Off: Zsolt Haraszti Corrected
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Paks 2–0 MTK Budapest · Ákos Kinyik
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Paks 2–0 MTK Budapest · Kevin Horvath
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Barna Tóth · Paks
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' MTK Budapest · On: Sámuel Barnabás Bakó · Off: Adrian Zeljkovic Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' MTK Budapest · On: Milán Gábo Klausz · Off: Mark Kerezsi Zalan Corrected
86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Paks
87′🟥 RED CARD · 87' Soma Szuhodovszki · MTK Budapest
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Paks · On: Gergo Gyurkits · Off: József Windecker Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Paks 3–0 MTK Budapest · Kevin Horvath
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Paks 3–0 MTK Budapest · Milan Pető
FTFULL TIME Paks 3–0 MTK Budapest
FTPaks 3–0 MTK Budapest · Paks win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Paks win55%

Draw21%

MTK Budapest win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:30

Venue · Fehérvári úti stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Paks

5-4-1

28 M. Gyetvan

12 G. Vas

6 M. Gyorfi

2 A. Kinyik

30 J. Szabo

14 E. Silye

10 Z. Haraszti

22 J. Windecker

8 B. Balogh

21 K. Papp

7 J. Szalai

Coach · Gyorgy Bognar

Substitutes

1 · A. Kovacsik

15 · C. Belenyesi

5 · B. Vecsei

17 · M. Peto

18 · G. Gyurkits

29 · B. Toth

4 · A. Lapu

19 · K. Horvath

9 · J. Hahn

27 · J. Galambos

MTK Budapest

4-2-3-1

24 T. Fadgyas

26 V. Armalas

4 I. Beriashvili

55 S. Radic

13 M. Timoteus

80 A. Zeljkovic

6 M. Kata

11 G. Jurek

17 K. Hinora

77 G. Komaromi

20 Z. Kerezsi

Coach · Mate Pinezits

Substitutes

43 · B. Varga

2 · B. Varju

27 · P. Kovacs

10 · I. Bognar

30 · S. Bako

8 · A. G. Zubor

29 · S. Szuhodovszki

9 · M. Klausz

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Paks

5-4-1

28 M. Gyetvan

12 G. Vas

6 M. Gyorfi

2 A. Kinyik

30 J. Szabo

14 E. Silye

10 Z. Haraszti

22 J. Windecker

8 B. Balogh

21 K. Papp

7 J. Szalai

Coach · Gyorgy Bognar

Substitutes

1 · A. Kovacsik

15 · C. Belenyesi

5 · B. Vecsei

17 · M. Peto

18 · G. Gyurkits

29 · B. Toth

4 · A. Lapu

19 · K. Horvath

9 · J. Hahn

27 · J. Galambos

MTK Budapest

4-2-3-1

24 T. Fadgyas

26 V. Armalas

4 I. Beriashvili

55 S. Radic

13 M. Timoteus

80 A. Zeljkovic

6 M. Kata

11 G. Jurek

17 K. Hinora

77 G. Komaromi

20 Z. Kerezsi

Coach · Mate Pinezits

Substitutes

43 · B. Varga

2 · B. Varju

27 · P. Kovacs

10 · I. Bognar

30 · S. Bako

8 · A. G. Zubor

29 · S. Szuhodovszki

9 · M. Klausz

Our number · paks winPublished 10 Oct 18:40

55% The market48%

Us55%

~~Market~~48%

We make Paks a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · paks win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paks win	55%	48%	+7
Draw	21%	23%	−1
MTK Budapest win	23%	29%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Both teams to score	69%	72%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	89%	87%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Paks or draw	77%	71%	+6
Paks clean sheet	24%	–	–
MTK Budapest clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.2 2.8 2.5 1 4.8 8.7 5.7 2.8 2 6.3 9.0 6.5 3.1 3 4.8 6.8 4.9 2.4 4 2.7 3.9 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paks down, MTK Budapest across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,037 NB I matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 8 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paks at home: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). MTK Budapest away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.28 goals for Paks, 1.45 for MTK Budapest. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 18:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 12

~~Both scored~~8 of 12

~~Last meetings~~MTK 0–2 PAK · PAK 3–1 MTK · MTK 2–3 PAK · MTK 1–2 PAK

Form · last six in NB I

PAKS

DLWDLW2–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–0

MTK BUDAPEST

LDWDLL2–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyori ETO FC	8	+6	15
2	Puskas Academy	8	+3	15
3	Vasas	8	+6	14
4	Ujpest	8	+4	14
5	Ferencvarosi TC	7	+3	12
6	Paks	8	−1	11
7	MTK Budapest	8	+1	9
8	Kisvarda FC	8	−1	9
9	Debreceni VSC	8	−3	9
10	Nyiregyhaza	8	−5	8
11	Budapest Honved	7	−3	6
12	Zalaegerszegi TE	8	−10	6