Paks v Gyori ETO FC prediction · NB I

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Paks 1–2 Gyori ETO FC PAKS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Paks win~~38%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.606

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.900

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paks win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Paks 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
2′KICK-OFF Paks v Gyori ETO FC
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Kristóf Papp · Paks
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Élan Ricardo · Gyori ETO FC
38′We said Paks at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–22–66
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Paks 0–1 Gyori ETO FC
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Paks win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Gyori ETO FC win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Paks win 12%)
39′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 12–22–66
40′Gyori ETO FC ahead on 39′ through viktor djukanovic. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
42′We said Paks at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–89
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' milan gyorfi · Paks
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Paks 0–2 Gyori ETO FC
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Paks win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
43′viktor djukanovic scores for Gyori ETO FC on 42′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
45′SECOND HALF Paks 0–2 Gyori ETO FC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Paks · On: Kevin Horvath · Off: József Windecker
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Paks · On: Jozsef Szalai · Off: Zsolt Haraszti
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Paks · On: M. Simuț · Off: milan gyorfi
47′HALF-TIME Paks 0–2 Gyori ETO FC
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Paks 1–2 Gyori ETO FC
48′47′: Milan Pető on the scoresheet for Paks, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 10–22–68
50′We said Paks at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–22–69
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Gyori ETO FC · On: Á. Umathum · Off: Marcell huszar
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Gyori ETO FC · On: Željko Gavrić · Off: Élan Ricardo
74′14 shots for Paks, 9 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 3–17–80
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Gyori ETO FC · On: Kevin Bánáti · Off: Jewison Bennette
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paks · On: János Hahn · Off: Barna Tóth
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Paks · On: Balázs Wiesner · Off: Gabor Vas
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gyori ETO FC · On: Stefan Vlădoiu · Off: viktor djukanovic
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gyori ETO FC · On: M. Marong · Off: Luka Kulenović
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Balázs Wiesner · Paks
88′Paks have had 17 attempts to 9 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
94′1–2 at the end. Our 38% on Paks misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Paks 1–2 Gyori ETO FC
FTPaks 1–2 Gyori ETO FC · Paks win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Paks just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Paks 38%, draw 25%, Gyori ETO FC 37%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Paks v Gyori ETO FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Paks win38%

Draw25%

Gyori ETO FC win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueFehérvári úti stadion

Line-ups

Paks

3-2-4-1

Gyori ETO FC

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paks

Gyori ETO FC

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · NB I

Last match: 11 Oct · NB I

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Gyori ETO FC	9	+5	15
5	Paks	9	+2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Paks

3-2-4-1

28 M. Gyetván

12 G. Vas

2 Á. Kinyik

30 J. Szabó

6 M. Győrfi

14 E. Silye

10 Z. Haraszti

21 K. Papp

22 J. Windecker

17 M. Pető

29 B. Tóth

Coach · G. Bognár

Substitutes

8 · B. Balogh

3 · Á. Debreceni

18 · G. Gyurkits

9 · J. Hahn

19 · K. Horváth

1 · Á. Kovácsik

4 · A. Lapu

24 · B. Lenzsér

7 · J. Szalai

5 · B. Vécsei

16 · B. Wiesner

20 · M. Simuț

Gyori ETO FC

5-4-1

99 S. Petráš

19 J. Bennette

37 N. Urblík

24 M. Krpić

96 M. Huszár

23 D. Štefulj

14 M. Szép

77 Élan Ricardo

7 P. Agba

9 L. Kulenović

34 V. Đukanović

Coach · E. Juárez

Substitutes

90 · K. Bánáti

2 · Ș. Vlădoiu

21 · E. Bödő

16 · B. Megyeri

88 · M. Giger

20 · B. Bíró

26 · Á. Umathum

30 · M. Marong

1 · Botond Hajczinger

80 · Ž. Gavrić

Our number · paks winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

38% The market53%

Us38%

~~Market~~53%

We make Paks a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paks v Gyori ETO FC~~1.62 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 15~~5 v 3

~~The market · Paks win~~53% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Paks win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paks win	38%	53%	−15
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Gyori ETO FC win	37%	24%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	62%	72%	−10
Both teams to score	64%	71%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	84%	88%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	53%	−13
Paks or draw	63%	76%	−13
Paks clean sheet	21%	–	–
Gyori ETO FC clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.1 5.6 5.2 2.7 1 5.6 11.3 8.2 4.4 2 5.3 8.3 6.6 3.5 3 2.9 4.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paks down, Gyori ETO FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,044 NB I matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paks at home: 3.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gyori ETO FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Paks, 1.59 for Gyori ETO FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PAK 3–4 GYO · GYO 0–0 PAK · PAK 3–3 GYO · GYO 2–0 PAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 16 Aug

PAKS

LWDLWW2–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 3–0

GYORI ETO FC

WDLWWL3–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Puskas Academy	9	+4	18
2	Vasas	10	+5	15
3	Gyori ETO FC	9	+5	15
4	Ujpest	9	+4	15
5	Paks	9	+2	14
6	Ferencvarosi TC	8	+3	13
7	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
8	Kisvarda FC	9	−1	10
9	Debreceni VSC	9	−3	10
10	Zalaegerszegi TE	9	−6	9
11	Nyiregyhaza	9	−9	8
12	Budapest Honved	8	−3	7