Nyiregyhaza v Budapest Honved prediction · NB I

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Nyiregyhaza 0–1 Budapest Honved NYIREGYHAZA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nyiregyhaza win~~38%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.642

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.843

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nyiregyhaza win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: Nyiregyhaza was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
2′KICK-OFF Nyiregyhaza v Budapest Honved
20′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Marko Regža · Nyiregyhaza
34′Nyiregyhaza have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–34–32
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' György Toma · Nyiregyhaza
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Nyiregyhaza win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Nyiregyhaza 0–0 Budapest Honved
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Nyiregyhaza · On: Zsombor Hös · Off: Sandro Ingolitsch
45′SECOND HALF Nyiregyhaza 0–0 Budapest Honved
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Oleksandr Safronov · Budapest Honved
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–44–27
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Nyiregyhaza win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
59′13 shots for Nyiregyhaza, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 27–47–26
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Pablo García Ruiz · Budapest Honved
62′We said Nyiregyhaza at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–50–24
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Nyiregyhaza · On: Balázs Manner · Off: Nemanja Antonov
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Nyiregyhaza · On: Žan Medved · Off: Marko Regža
66′We said Nyiregyhaza at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–23
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Budapest Honved · On: Kevin Sydney Kantor · Off: Patrik Pinte
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Budapest Honved · On: Ádám Gyurcsó · Off: Pablo García Ruiz
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Balázs Manner · Nyiregyhaza
73′We said Nyiregyhaza at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–18
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Budapest Honved · On: Branko Pauljević · Off: Oleksandr Safronov
74′We said Nyiregyhaza at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–16–81
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Tamás Somogyi · Budapest Honved
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Nyiregyhaza 0–1 Budapest Honved
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Nyiregyhaza win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Budapest Honved win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
76′74′: Kevin Sydney Kantor on the scoresheet for Budapest Honved, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–83
78′Nyiregyhaza have had 16 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 1–14–85
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Ádám Szamosi · Budapest Honved
82′74′: Kevin Sydney Kantor on the scoresheet for Budapest Honved, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–10–89
82′We said Nyiregyhaza at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–10–89
83′Nyiregyhaza have had 16 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 1–9–90
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Budapest Honved · On: Adi Alić · Off: Alberto Mari
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Budapest Honved · On: Deian Boldor · Off: Ádám Szamosi
95′Full time, 0–1. We called Nyiregyhaza at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Martin Dala · Nyiregyhaza
FTFULL TIME Nyiregyhaza 0–1 Budapest Honved
FTNyiregyhaza 0–1 Budapest Honved · Nyiregyhaza win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Nyiregyhaza just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Nyiregyhaza 38%, draw 27%, Budapest Honved 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Nyiregyhaza v Budapest HonvedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nyiregyhaza win38%

Draw27%

Budapest Honved win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueVárosi Stadion

Line-ups

Nyiregyhaza

4-4-2

Budapest Honved

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nyiregyhaza

Budapest Honved

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · NB I

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Nyiregyhaza	9	−9	8
12	Budapest Honved	8	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nyiregyhaza

4-4-2

57 M. Dala

24 V. Jovanov

39 R. Žiković

31 L. Katona

70 M. Katona

25 S. Ingolitsch

6 Y. Toma

12 M. Kovács

7 N. Antonov

9 M. Kvasina

23 M. Regža

Coach · Tamás Bódog

Substitutes

99 · Á. Alaxai

66 · B. Benczenleitner

8 · Zsombor Hos

74 · D. Kaczvinszki

10 · B. Manner

26 · Ž. Medved

17 · C. Mate

22 · M. Molnar

21 · Z. Vukk

29 · J. Batoum

Budapest Honved

4-4-2

31 O. Hadžikić

33 O. Safronov

44 Á. Baki

4 A. Szabó

11 S. Hangya

17 P. Pinte

99 I. Pekár

40 Adam Szamosi

3 P. Garcia

30 T. Somogyi

45 Alberto Marí

Coach · M. Jacobacci

Substitutes

1 · G. Dúzs

80 · R. Eddarraj

9 · Á. Gyurcsó

72 · K. Kallai

49 · B. Pauljević

7 · A. Zuigeber

19 · A. Alić

20 · P. Garcia

46 · S. Csanad

41 · Áron Russnák

71 · K. Kantor

52 · D. Boldor

Our number · nyiregyhaza winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

38% The market48%

Us38%

~~Market~~48%

We make Nyiregyhaza a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nyiregyhaza v Budapest Honved~~1.49 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 9 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~11 v 12

~~The market · Nyiregyhaza win~~48% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nyiregyhaza win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nyiregyhaza win	38%	48%	−10
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Budapest Honved win	35%	26%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	55%	56%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Nyiregyhaza or draw	65%	74%	−9
Nyiregyhaza clean sheet	25%	–	–
Budapest Honved clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 6.7 6.8 5.5 2.6 1 7.2 12.5 8.1 3.8 2 6.1 8.5 6.0 2.8 3 3.0 4.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nyiregyhaza down, Budapest Honved across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,044 NB I matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nyiregyhaza at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Budapest Honved away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Nyiregyhaza, 1.41 for Budapest Honved. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BUD 1–1 NYI · NYI 0–0 BUD · NYI 1–5 BUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 9 Aug

NYIREGYHAZA

WLDLDL2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–5

BUDAPEST HONVED

DLWLLD2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Puskas Academy	9	+4	18
2	Vasas	10	+5	15
3	Gyori ETO FC	9	+5	15
4	Ujpest	9	+4	15
5	Paks	9	+2	14
6	Ferencvarosi TC	8	+3	13
7	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
8	Kisvarda FC	9	−1	10
9	Debreceni VSC	9	−3	10
10	Zalaegerszegi TE	9	−6	9
11	Nyiregyhaza	9	−9	8
12	Budapest Honved	8	−3	7