

MTK Budapest v Vasas
MTK Budapest
VasasNB I · FRI 16 OCT · Hidegkúti Nándor Stadion
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said MTK Budapest win at 39%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: MTK Budapest 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
- 1′KICK-OFF MTK Budapest v Vasas
- 26′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
- 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' MTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' MTK Budapest win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
- 27′Gyorgy Komaromi scores for MTK Budapest on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–13
- 29′Gyorgy Komaromi scores for MTK Budapest on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–13
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' MTK Budapest win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
- 45′SECOND HALF MTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vasas · On: Márk Kovácsréti · Off: Rajmund horvath
- 46′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
- 46′HALF-TIME MTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas
- 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Botond Baráth · Vasas
- 62′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' B. Rab · Vasas
- 63′Vasas have had 13 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 75–20–5
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' MTK Budapest · On: Kristof Hinora · Off: Gabor Jurek
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Vasas · On: Szabolcs Mezei · Off: B. Rab
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Vasas · On: Bence Janos Petho · Off: Márk Koszta
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vasas · On: C. Molnár · Off: Milan Tóth
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' MTK Budapest win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
- 71′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' MTK Budapest
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' MTK Budapest · On: Á Nyers · Off: Mark Kerezsi Zalan
- 77′MTK Budapest are down to ten from 76′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 84–14–2
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Patrik kovacs · MTK Budapest
- 78′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' MTK Budapest win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
- 83′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vasas · On: Gergo Janos Palinkas · Off: Sandor Hidi
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' MTK Budapest · On: Benedek Varju · Off: Á. Zubor
- 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Dániel Csóka · Vasas
- 89′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Bence Pávkovics · Vasas
- FTFULL TIME MTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas
- FTMTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas · MTK Budapest win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassClose to call, with MTK Budapest just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: MTK Budapest 39%, draw 26%, Vasas 35%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
MTK Budapest win39%
Vasas win35%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00
RoundMatchday 10
VenueHidegkúti Nándor Stadion
Match timeline
All events
MTK BudapestMIN
VasasEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
MTK Budapest
4-2-3-1
Vasas
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
MTK Budapest
Vasas
Last match: 10 Oct · NB I
Last match: 10 Oct · NB I
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
MTK Budapest
4-2-3-1
43 Bence Varga
26 V. Armalas
4 I. Beriashvili
55 S. Radić
27 P. Kovács
6 M. Kata
80 Adrian Zeljković
11 G. Jurek
8 A. G. Zubor
77 G. Komáromi
20 Zalán Márk Kerezsi
Coach · Máté Pinezits
Substitutes
10 · I. Bognár
24 · T. Fadgyas
17 · K. Hinora
9 · M. Klausz
45 · D. Varga
41 · B. Szebelledi
37 · Adam Nyers
13 · M. Timoteus
30 · Sámuel Barnabás Bakó
2 · B. Varju
Vasas
4-2-3-1
87 M. Engedi
4 B. Pávkovics
36 B. Baráth
17 Dániel Csóka
14 Á. Doktorics
16 B. Rab
15 S. Hidi
84 Rajmund Horvath
88 J. Urblík
77 M. Tóth
9 M. Koszta
Coach · G. Erős
Substitutes
10 · M. Kovácsréti
24 · S. Mezei
18 · G. Pálinkás
29 · B. Pethő
7 · A. Radó
22 · Viktor Hei
26 · J. Uram
94 · B. Cseke
8 · B. Banó-Szabó
68 · A. Girsik
89 · Csaba Milán Molnár
6 · D. Sztojka
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
MTK Budapest
4-2-3-1
43 Bence Varga
26 V. Armalas
4 I. Beriashvili
55 S. Radić
27 P. Kovács
6 M. Kata
80 Adrian Zeljković
11 G. Jurek
8 A. G. Zubor
77 G. Komáromi
20 Zalán Márk Kerezsi
Coach · Máté Pinezits
Substitutes
10 · I. Bognár
24 · T. Fadgyas
17 · K. Hinora
9 · M. Klausz
45 · D. Varga
41 · B. Szebelledi
37 · Adam Nyers
13 · M. Timoteus
30 · Sámuel Barnabás Bakó
2 · B. Varju
Vasas
4-2-3-1
87 M. Engedi
4 B. Pávkovics
36 B. Baráth
17 Dániel Csóka
14 Á. Doktorics
16 B. Rab
15 S. Hidi
84 Rajmund Horvath
88 J. Urblík
77 M. Tóth
9 M. Koszta
Coach · G. Erős
Substitutes
10 · M. Kovácsréti
24 · S. Mezei
18 · G. Pálinkás
29 · B. Pethő
7 · A. Radó
22 · Viktor Hei
26 · J. Uram
94 · B. Cseke
8 · B. Banó-Szabó
68 · A. Girsik
89 · Csaba Milán Molnár
6 · D. Sztojka
We make MTK Budapest a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest win | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | +1 |
| Vasas win | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 63% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 82% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 42% | −6 |
| MTK Budapest or draw | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| MTK Budapest clean sheet | 23% | – | – |
| Vasas clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in NB I this season · since 14 Aug
MTK BUDAPEST
VASAS
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 9 | +4 | 18 |
| 2 | Vasas | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 9 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 | Paks | 9 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kisvarda FC | 9 | −1 | 10 |
| 8 | Debreceni VSC | 9 | −3 | 10 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest | 9 | −2 | 9 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | −6 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 9 | −9 | 8 |
| 12 | Budapest Honved | 8 | −3 | 7 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Puskas Academy
Gyori ETO FC
Ujpest
Paks
Ferencvarosi TC
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE
Nyiregyhaza
Budapest Honved