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MTK Budapest v Vasas

MTK Budapest
1–0Full time
Vasas

NB I · FRI 16 OCT · Hidegkúti Nándor Stadion

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30
MTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas MTK BUDAPEST WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said MTK Budapest win39%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.562
The market’s Brier score0.560

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said MTK Budapest win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: MTK Budapest 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF MTK Budapest v Vasas
  4. 26′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–21–13
  5. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' MTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas
  6. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' MTK Budapest win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
  7. 27′Gyorgy Komaromi scores for MTK Budapest on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–21–13
  8. 29′Gyorgy Komaromi scores for MTK Budapest on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–13
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 67–21–12
  10. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' MTK Budapest win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
  11. 45′SECOND HALF MTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas
  12. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vasas · On: Márk Kovácsréti · Off: Rajmund horvath
  13. 46′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
  14. 46′HALF-TIME MTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas
  15. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Botond Baráth · Vasas
  16. 62′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  17. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' B. Rab · Vasas
  18. 63′Vasas have had 13 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  19. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' MTK Budapest · On: Kristof Hinora · Off: Gabor Jurek
  20. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Vasas · On: Szabolcs Mezei · Off: B. Rab
  21. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Vasas · On: Bence Janos Petho · Off: Márk Koszta
  22. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Vasas · On: C. Molnár · Off: Milan Tóth
  23. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' MTK Budapest win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
  24. 71′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  25. 76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' MTK Budapest
  26. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' MTK Budapest · On: Á Nyers · Off: Mark Kerezsi Zalan
  27. 77′MTK Budapest are down to ten from 76′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 84–14–2
  28. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Patrik kovacs · MTK Budapest
  29. 78′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
  30. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' MTK Budapest win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
  31. 83′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Vasas · On: Gergo Janos Palinkas · Off: Sandor Hidi
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' MTK Budapest · On: Benedek Varju · Off: Á. Zubor
  34. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Dániel Csóka · Vasas
  35. 89′We said MTK Budapest at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  36. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Bence Pávkovics · Vasas
  37. FTFULL TIME MTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas
  38. FTMTK Budapest 1–0 Vasas · MTK Budapest win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with MTK Budapest just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: MTK Budapest 39%, draw 26%, Vasas 35%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on MTK Budapest v VasasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

MTK Budapest win39%
Draw26%
Vasas win35%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueHidegkúti Nándor Stadion

Line-ups

MTK Budapest

4-2-3-1

Vasas

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MTK Budapest

Vasas

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · NB I

Last match: 10 Oct · NB I

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Vasas9+615
9MTK Budapest9−29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

MTK Budapest

4-2-3-1

43 Bence Varga

26 V. Armalas

4 I. Beriashvili

55 S. Radić

27 P. Kovács

6 M. Kata

80 Adrian Zeljković

11 G. Jurek

8 A. G. Zubor

77 G. Komáromi

20 Zalán Márk Kerezsi

Coach · Máté Pinezits

Substitutes

10 · I. Bognár

24 · T. Fadgyas

17 · K. Hinora

9 · M. Klausz

45 · D. Varga

41 · B. Szebelledi

37 · Adam Nyers

13 · M. Timoteus

30 · Sámuel Barnabás Bakó

2 · B. Varju

Vasas

4-2-3-1

87 M. Engedi

4 B. Pávkovics

36 B. Baráth

17 Dániel Csóka

14 Á. Doktorics

16 B. Rab

15 S. Hidi

84 Rajmund Horvath

88 J. Urblík

77 M. Tóth

9 M. Koszta

Coach · G. Erős

Substitutes

10 · M. Kovácsréti

24 · S. Mezei

18 · G. Pálinkás

29 · B. Pethő

7 · A. Radó

22 · Viktor Hei

26 · J. Uram

94 · B. Cseke

8 · B. Banó-Szabó

68 · A. Girsik

89 · Csaba Milán Molnár

6 · D. Sztojka

Our number · mtk budapest winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
39% The market39%
Us39%
Market39%

We make MTK Budapest a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · MTK Budapest v Vasas1.57 – 1.48
Form · last six in NB I this season · since 14 AugW1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 9 v 159 v 2
The market · MTK Budapest win39% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 10 OCT 03:5616 OCT 18:39
Our probability · MTK Budapest win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
MTK Budapest win39%39%0
Draw26%25%+1
Vasas win35%36%−1
Over 2.5 goals58%63%−5
Both teams to score62%64%−2
Over 1.5 goals81%82%−1
Over 3.5 goals36%42%−6
MTK Budapest or draw65%64%+1
MTK Budapest clean sheet23%––
Vasas clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%
0123450 6.1 6.0 5.1 2.5 1 6.6 11.9 7.9 4.0 2 5.9 8.5 6.2 3.1 3 3.1 4.4 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+MTK Budapest down, Vasas across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 14 Aug

MTK BUDAPEST

DWDLLL1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3

VASAS

WLLWWD2–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 4–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Puskas Academy9+418
2Vasas9+615
3Gyori ETO FC9+515
4Ujpest9+415
5Paks9+214
6Ferencvarosi TC8+313
7Kisvarda FC9−110
8Debreceni VSC9−310
9MTK Budapest9−29
10Zalaegerszegi TE9−69
11Nyiregyhaza9−98
12Budapest Honved8−37

The competition's standings before kick-off.