Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC prediction · NB I

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Kisvarda FC 1–1 Ferencvarosi TC FERENCVAROSI TC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ferencvarosi TC win~~51%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.856

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.035

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ferencvarosi TC win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ferencvarosi TC was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 22–27–51
1′KICK-OFF Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC
5′PENALTY MISSED · 4' Soma Novothny · Kisvarda FC
32′We said Ferencvarosi TC at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 55–26–18
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Kisvarda FC 1–0 Ferencvarosi TC
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Ferencvarosi TC win: 51% at kick-off, 18% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Kisvarda FC win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Ferencvarosi TC win 18%)
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 56–26–18
33′Kisvarda FC ahead on 32′ through Bogdan Melnyk. 1–0. 1–0 · 56–26–18
43′We said Ferencvarosi TC at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–26–14
45′9 shots for Ferencvarosi TC, 3 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 60–26–14
45′Ferencvarosi TC have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 60–26–14
45′HALF-TIME Kisvarda FC 1–0 Ferencvarosi TC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kisvarda FC · On: Jasmin Mešanović · Off: Soma Novothny
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Kisvarda FC · On: Teslim Abdulateef Balogun · Off: Christián Herc
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Bamidele Isa Yusuf · Off: Krisztian Lisztes
46′SECOND HALF Kisvarda FC 1–0 Ferencvarosi TC
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Ferencvarosi TC win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
57′We said Ferencvarosi TC at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kisvarda FC · On: Kevin Körmendi · Off: Miroszláv Babják
60′Ferencvarosi TC have had 16 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 67–25–8
68′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Bogdan Melnyk · Kisvarda FC
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Veljko Birmančević · Off: Jonathan Levi
70′We said Ferencvarosi TC at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
71′Ferencvarosi TC have had 20 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 75–21–4
75′Callum O'Dowda scores for Ferencvarosi TC on 75′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 12–67–21
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Kisvarda FC 1–1 Ferencvarosi TC · Callum O'Dowda
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Ferencvarosi TC win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Kisvarda FC win 12%)
76′We said Ferencvarosi TC at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–1 · 11–69–20
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Ferencvarosi TC win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Carlos Eduardo Lopes Cruz · Off: Daniel Arzani
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Jasmin Mešanović · Kisvarda FC
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Ádám Nagy · Off: Habib Maïga
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Kisvarda FC · On: Hianga'a M'Bock · Off: Kevin Körmendi
91′Ferencvarosi TC have had 24 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 3–93–4
FTFULL TIME Kisvarda FC 1–1 Ferencvarosi TC
FTKisvarda FC 1–1 Ferencvarosi TC · Ferencvarosi TC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kisvarda FC 22%, draw 26%, Ferencvarosi TC 51%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kisvarda FC win22%

Draw26%

Ferencvarosi TC win51%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueVárkert Sportpálya

Line-ups

Kisvarda FC

4-1-4-1

Ferencvarosi TC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kisvarda FC

Ferencvarosi TC

8Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · NB I

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ferencvarosi TC	8	+3	13
8	Kisvarda FC	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kisvarda FC

4-1-4-1

23 I. Popovich

55 K. Nagy

42 T. Lippai

25 B. Šerbečić

10 D. Soltész

22 A. Youga

29 B. Bíró

14 B. Melnyk

24 C. Herc

37 Miroslav Babjak

86 S. Novothny

Coach · A. Supka

Substitutes

4 · M. Chlumecký

18 · K. Körmendi

1 · M. Kovács

80 · H. Mbock

27 · J. Mešanović

6 · Maxim Osztrovka

70 · L. Szőr

99 · T. Yordanov

21 · G. Szikszai

32 · Z. Papp

45 · T. A. Balogun

Ferencvarosi TC

4-2-3-1

63 Dániel István Radnóti

14 A. Osváth

28 T. Raemaekers

4 M. Gómez

47 C. O'Dowda

80 H. Maïga

17 M. Corbu

10 J. Levi

16 K. Zachariassen

15 D. Arzani

76 K. Lisztes

Coach · B. Borbely

Substitutes

7 · V. Birmančević

68 · Z. Varga

1 · Á. Varga

88 · P. Rommens

54 · O. Nagy

6 · Á. Nagy

72 · Ádám Madarász

90 · D. Dibusz

11 · B. Yusuf

20 · Cadu

18 · Á. Bagi

5 · G. Zohoré

Our number · ferencvarosi tc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market62%

Us51%

~~Market~~62%

We make Ferencvarosi TC a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC~~1.00 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~8 v 6

~~The market · Ferencvarosi TC win~~62% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ferencvarosi TC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kisvarda FC win	22%	16%	+6
Draw	26%	21%	+5
Ferencvarosi TC win	51%	62%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	49%	60%	−11
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	80%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	39%	−11
Kisvarda FC or draw	49%	38%	+11
Kisvarda FC clean sheet	19%	–	–
Ferencvarosi TC clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.1 10.7 9.6 5.3 2.2 1 6.2 12.6 9.5 5.2 2.2 2 3.6 5.8 4.8 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kisvarda FC down, Ferencvarosi TC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,047 NB I matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kisvarda FC at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ferencvarosi TC away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Kisvarda FC, 1.65 for Ferencvarosi TC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KIS 1–1 FER · FER 3–0 KIS · KIS 0–1 FER · FER 0–0 KIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 15 Aug

KISVARDA FC

LDDWLD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

FERENCVAROSI TC

WWWDDD1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Puskas Academy	10	+5	21
2	Gyori ETO FC	10	+6	18
3	Vasas	10	+5	15
4	Ujpest	10	+3	15
5	Paks	10	+1	14
6	Ferencvarosi TC	8	+3	13
7	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
8	Kisvarda FC	9	−1	10
9	Budapest Honved	9	−2	10
10	Debreceni VSC	9	−3	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	9	−6	9
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8