Gyori ETO FC v Ujpest prediction · NB I

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Gyori ETO FC 1–0 Ujpest GYORI ETO FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gyori ETO FC win~~59%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.252

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.554

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gyori ETO FC win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gyori ETO FC was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
1′KICK-OFF Gyori ETO FC v Ujpest
25′We published Gyori ETO FC at 59%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–13–6
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Matija Ljujic · Ujpest
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Gyori ETO FC 1–0 Ujpest
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Gyori ETO FC win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
26′Gyori ETO FC ahead on 25′ through Luka Kulenović. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–5
45′SECOND HALF Gyori ETO FC 1–0 Ujpest
46′HALF-TIME Gyori ETO FC 1–0 Ujpest
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Ferenc Ujváry · Ujpest
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ujpest · On: Arne Maier · Off: Matija Ljujic
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ujpest · On: Gleofilo Vlijter · Off: Muhamed Tijani
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' M. Szép · Gyori ETO FC
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Norbert Szendrei · Ujpest
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Gyori ETO FC · On: Željko Gavrić · Off: Élan Ricardo
62′Ujpest have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
65′We published Gyori ETO FC at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Gyori ETO FC · On: Kevin Bánáti · Off: viktor djukanovic
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Gyori ETO FC · On: Stefan Vlădoiu · Off: Jewison Bennette
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ujpest · On: Krisztofer Horvath · Off: Ábel Krajcsovics
75′Ujpest have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ujpest · On: Tizian Valentino Scharmer · Off: Mario Zeke
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Gyori ETO FC · On: M. Marong · Off: Luka Kulenović
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Gyori ETO FC · On: Á. Umathum · Off: Marcell huszar
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Gyori ETO FC win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
78′We published Gyori ETO FC at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′We published Gyori ETO FC at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′Ujpest have had 20 attempts to 11 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Ujpest · On: Miron Mate Mucsanyi · Off: Ferenc Ujváry
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Miron Mate Mucsanyi · Ujpest
93′Full time, 1–0. We called Gyori ETO FC at 59% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Miljan·Krpic · Gyori ETO FC
FTFULL TIME Gyori ETO FC 1–0 Ujpest
FTGyori ETO FC 1–0 Ujpest · Gyori ETO FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gyori ETO FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gyori ETO FC 59%, draw 23%, Ujpest 18%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Gyori ETO FC v UjpestBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gyori ETO FC win59%

Draw23%

Ujpest win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueGyori Eto

Line-ups

Gyori ETO FC

5-4-1

Ujpest

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gyori ETO FC

Ujpest

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · NB I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Gyori ETO FC	10	+6	18
4	Ujpest	10	+3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gyori ETO FC

5-4-1

99 S. Petráš

19 J. Bennette

37 N. Urblík

24 M. Krpić

23 D. Štefulj

96 M. Huszár

9 L. Kulenović

77 Élan Ricardo

7 P. Agba

14 M. Szép

34 V. Đukanović

Coach · E. Juárez

Substitutes

90 · K. Bánáti

20 · B. Bíró

21 · E. Bödő

80 · Ž. Gavrić

88 · M. Giger

16 · B. Megyeri

2 · Ș. Vlădoiu

26 · Á. Umathum

30 · M. Marong

Ujpest

4-2-3-1

1 P. Szappanos

36 Ferenc Ujvary

3 Heitor

94 P. Stronati

20 M. Zeke

88 M. Ljujić

8 N. Szendrei

27 Á. Krajcsovics

26 M. Tijani

17 A. Matko

14 E. Amenyido

Coach · Z. Szélesi

Substitutes

23 · D. Banai

45 · A. Ademi

11 · K. Horváth

10 · A. Maier

15 · M. Máté

30 · João Nunes

38 · K. Sarkadi

21 · T. Scharmer

39 · G. Vlijter

43 · Márton Milán Varga

19 · P. M. Balladom

5 · A. Fiola

Our number · gyori eto fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

59% The market40%

Us59%

~~Market~~40%

We make Gyori ETO FC a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gyori ETO FC v Ujpest~~2.02 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 15~~2 v 4

~~The market · Gyori ETO FC win~~40% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gyori ETO FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gyori ETO FC win	59%	40%	+19
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Ujpest win	18%	35%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	59%	63%	−4
Both teams to score	57%	65%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	42%	−6
Gyori ETO FC or draw	82%	65%	+17
Gyori ETO FC clean sheet	35%	–	–
Ujpest clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.6 4.1 2.6 1 8.7 10.7 5.1 2 9.6 9.9 5.1 3 6.4 6.6 3.4 4 3.3 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gyori ETO FC down, Ujpest across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,049 NB I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gyori ETO FC at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ujpest away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Gyori ETO FC, 1.04 for Ujpest. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GYO 2–1 UJP · UJP 0–3 GYO · GYO 1–1 UJP · UJP 2–3 GYO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 21 Aug

GYORI ETO FC

DLWWLW1–1 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

UJPEST

LWDWDL0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Puskas Academy	10	+5	21
2	Gyori ETO FC	10	+6	18
3	Vasas	10	+5	15
4	Ujpest	10	+3	15
5	Ferencvarosi TC	9	+3	14
6	Paks	10	+1	14
7	Debreceni VSC	10	0	13
8	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
9	Kisvarda FC	10	−1	11
10	Budapest Honved	9	−2	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	10	−9	9
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8