Gyori ETO FC v Puskas Academy prediction · NB I

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Gyori ETO FC 0–1 Puskas Academy GYORI ETO FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gyori ETO FC win~~47%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.853

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.643

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gyori ETO FC win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: Gyori ETO FC was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–27
3′Much as we predicted: Gyori ETO FC was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
23′Puskas Academy ahead on 11′ through Dániel Lukács. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–56
27′Puskas Academy ahead on 11′ through Dániel Lukács. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–25–57
44′We said Gyori ETO FC at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–26–62
45′We said Gyori ETO FC at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–62
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 12–25–62
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gyori ETO FC win: 47% at kick-off, 18% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gyori ETO FC win: 47% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Gyori ETO FC 0–1 Puskas Academy
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gyori ETO FC win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Gyori ETO FC · On: Željko Gavrić · Off: Élan Ricardo Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Gyori ETO FC 0–1 Puskas Academy
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Gyori ETO FC · On: Balint Selyem · Off: Marcell huszar Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Puskas Academy · On: Michael okeke · Off: Urho Nissilä Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Gyori ETO FC · On: viktor djukanovic · Off: Jewison Bennette Corrected
65′We said Gyori ETO FC at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–22–72
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Gyori ETO FC win: 47% at kick-off, 5% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Gyori ETO FC win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Gyori ETO FC win: 47% at kick-off, 5% now
67′We said Gyori ETO FC at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–21–74
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Gyori ETO FC win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Gyori ETO FC win: 47% at kick-off, 5% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Puskas Academy · On: Zsolt Krupa · Off: Palkó Dárdai Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Gyori ETO FC · On: Claudiu Bumba · Off: Balint Selyem Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Gyori ETO FC · On: M. Marong · Off: Peter Agba Corrected
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Zsolt Krupa · Puskas Academy
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Puskas Academy · On: Z. Varga · Off: Martin Kern Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Puskas Academy · On: Mikael Soisalo · Off: Dániel Lukács Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Puskas Academy · On: Lamin Colley · Off: András Németh Corrected
88′We said Gyori ETO FC at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–1 · 0–3–97
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Roland Orjan · Puskas Academy
FTFULL TIME Gyori ETO FC 0–1 Puskas Academy
FTGyori ETO FC 0–1 Puskas Academy · Gyori ETO FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Gyori ETO FC win47%

Draw27%

Puskas Academy win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00

VenueGyori Eto

Line-ups

Gyori ETO FC

5-3-2

Puskas Academy

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gyori ETO FC

Puskas Academy

21Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Gyori ETO FC	8	+6	15
3	Puskas Academy	8	+3	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Gyori ETO FC

5-3-2

99 S. Petras

19 J. Bennette

37 N. Urblik

27 L. Balogun

24 M. Krpic

23 D. Stefulj

77 E. Ricardo

7 P. Agba

9 L. Kulenovic

14 M. Szep

96 M. Huszar

Coach · Efrain Juarez

Substitutes

1 · B. Hajczinger

20 · B. Biro

26 · A. Umathum

53 · B. Selyem

10 · C. Bumba

21 · E. Bodo

90 · K. Banati

80 · Z. Gavric

34 · V. Djukanovic

88 · M. Giger

30 · Ballack

Puskas Academy

4-2-3-1

72 B. Lehoczki

96 R. Orjan

14 W. Golla

21 G. Harutyunyan

88 B. Farkas

6 L. Duarte

74 M. Kern

10 P. Dardai

16 U. Nissila

8 D. Lukacs

90 A. Nemeth

Coach · Levente Babo

Substitutes

1 · T. Markek

22 · R. Szolnoki

24 · B. Pal

4 · M. Okeke

18 · B. Vekony

66 · Z. Varga

9 · L. Colley

20 · M. Soisalo

77 · K. Mondovics

80 · Z. Krupa

Our number · gyori eto fc winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

47% The market39%

Us47%

~~Market~~39%

We make Gyori ETO FC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gyori eto fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gyori ETO FC win	47%	39%	+8
Draw	27%	26%	+2
Puskas Academy win	25%	35%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%	−11
Both teams to score	54%	63%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	40%	−13
Gyori ETO FC or draw	75%	65%	+10
Gyori ETO FC clean sheet	34%	–	–
Puskas Academy clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.2 6.5 4.2 1 9.7 13.1 6.5 2.4 2 8.6 9.3 5.1 3 4.5 4.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gyori ETO FC down, Puskas Academy across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,040 NB I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gyori ETO FC at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Puskas Academy away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Gyori ETO FC, 1.10 for Puskas Academy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PUS 1–4 GYO · GYO 2–0 PUS · PUS 0–2 GYO · GYO 2–0 PUS

Form · last six in NB I

GYORI ETO FC

DWDLWW1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 2–1

PUSKAS ACADEMY

WWWLLW3–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vasas	9	+6	15
2	Gyori ETO FC	8	+6	15
3	Puskas Academy	8	+3	15
4	Ujpest	8	+4	14
5	Paks	9	+2	14
6	Ferencvarosi TC	8	+3	13
7	Kisvarda FC	9	−1	10
8	Debreceni VSC	9	−3	10
9	MTK Budapest	9	−2	9
10	Nyiregyhaza	8	−5	8
11	Budapest Honved	7	−3	6
12	Zalaegerszegi TE	8	−10	6