Ferencvarosi TC v Paks prediction · NB I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ferencvarosi TCDrawPaks

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ferencvarosi TC 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ferencvarosi TC 58%, draw 22%, Paks 20%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Ferencvarosi TC v PaksBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC win58%

Draw22%

Paks win20%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueGroupama Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ferencvarosi TC

Paks

9Days since last match14

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 17 Oct · NB I

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ferencvarosi TC	9	+3	14
7	Paks	10	+1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ferencvarosi tc winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Ferencvarosi TC a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ferencvarosi TC v Paks~~2.17 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 14~~6 v 7

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ferencvarosi TC win	58%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Paks win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Ferencvarosi TC or draw	80%	–	–
Ferencvarosi TC clean sheet	30%	–	–
Paks clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.2 3.4 2.5 1 6.7 9.7 5.4 2.2 2 8.0 9.6 5.8 2.4 3 5.7 6.9 4.2 4 3.1 3.8 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ferencvarosi TC down, Paks across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,052 NB I matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ferencvarosi TC at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Paks away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Ferencvarosi TC, 1.21 for Paks. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAK 4–2 FER · FER 2–0 PAK · PAK 0–1 FER · FER 2–2 PAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 21 Aug

FERENCVAROSI TC

WWDDDD2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

PAKS

WDLWWL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyori ETO FC	11	+7	21
2	Puskas Academy	10	+5	21
3	Debreceni VSC	11	+2	16
4	Vasas	10	+5	15
5	Ujpest	11	+2	15
6	Ferencvarosi TC	9	+3	14
7	Paks	10	+1	14
8	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
9	Kisvarda FC	11	−1	12
10	Budapest Honved	10	−4	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	11	−9	10
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8