Ferencvarosi TC v MTK Budapest prediction · NB I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ferencvarosi TCDrawMTK Budapest

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ferencvarosi TC 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ferencvarosi TC 67%, draw 20%, MTK Budapest 14%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Ferencvarosi TC v MTK BudapestBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ferencvarosi TC win67%

Draw20%

MTK Budapest win14%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueGroupama Aréna

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ferencvarosi TC

MTK Budapest

3Days since last match9

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 16 Oct · NB I

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ferencvarosi TC	9	+3	14
8	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ferencvarosi tc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

67% The market66%

Us67%

~~Market~~66%

We make Ferencvarosi TC a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ferencvarosi TC v MTK Budapest~~2.33 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 12~~6 v 8

~~The market · Ferencvarosi TC win~~66% · ours 67%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ferencvarosi TC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ferencvarosi TC win	67%	66%	+1
Draw	20%	19%	+1
MTK Budapest win	14%	15%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Ferencvarosi TC or draw	86%	85%	+1
Ferencvarosi TC clean sheet	38%	–	–
MTK Budapest clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.0%

0123450 4.4 2.9 1 7.9 9.0 4.1 2 10.0 9.6 4.7 3 7.7 7.5 3.7 4 4.5 4.4 2.1 5 2.1 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Ferencvarosi TC down, MTK Budapest across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,049 NB I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ferencvarosi TC at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). MTK Budapest away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.33 goals for Ferencvarosi TC, 0.98 for MTK Budapest. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MTK 1–3 FER · FER 4–1 MTK · MTK 1–1 FER · MTK 2–3 FER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 22 Aug

FERENCVAROSI TC

WWDDDD2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

MTK BUDAPEST

WDLLLW2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Puskas Academy	10	+5	21
2	Gyori ETO FC	10	+6	18
3	Debreceni VSC	11	+2	16
4	Vasas	10	+5	15
5	Ujpest	10	+3	15
6	Ferencvarosi TC	9	+3	14
7	Paks	10	+1	14
8	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
9	Kisvarda FC	10	−1	11
10	Budapest Honved	10	−4	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	10	−9	9
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8