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Ferencvarosi TC v Debreceni VSC

Ferencvarosi TC

1–1Full time

Debreceni VSC

NB I · SAT 10 OCT · Groupama Aréna

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Debreceni VSC FERENCVAROSI TC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ferencvarosi TC win~~61%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.005

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.213

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ferencvarosi TC win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ferencvarosi TC 61% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–17
1′KICK-OFF Ferencvarosi TC v Debreceni VSC
7′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Bamidele Isa Yusuf · Ferencvarosi TC
20′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Bamidele Isa Yusuf · Ferencvarosi TC
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Josua Mejias · Debreceni VSC
43′We said Ferencvarosi TC at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–33–18
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
45′HALF-TIME Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 Debreceni VSC
45′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Bamidele Isa Yusuf · Ferencvarosi TC
45′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Josua Mejias · Debreceni VSC
46′SECOND HALF Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 Debreceni VSC
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Ferencvarosi TC win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Debreceni VSC · On: Maximilian Hofmann · Off: gergo tercza Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Krisztian Lisztes · Off: Daniel Arzani Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Franko Kovačević · Off: Ádám Gyula Bagi Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Debreceni VSC · On: Bryan Adinany · Off: Ákos Szendrei Corrected
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Ferencvarosi TC 1–0 Debreceni VSC
71′⚽ GOAL · 65' Ferencvarosi TC 1–0 Debreceni VSC · marius corbu (assist Olivér Nagy)
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Debreceni VSC · On: Dominik Kocsis · Off: Sohan Baldoni Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Veljko Birmančević · Off: Bamidele Isa Yusuf Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Dominik Kocsis · Debreceni VSC
89′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ferencvarosi TC · On: Callum O'Dowda · Off: Franko Kovačević Corrected
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Mariano Gómez · Ferencvarosi TC
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' B. Borbely · Ferencvarosi TC
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Debreceni VSC · marius corbu
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Debreceni VSC · Balazs Dzsudzsak
FTFULL TIME Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Debreceni VSC
FTFerencvarosi TC 1–1 Debreceni VSC · Ferencvarosi TC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ferencvarosi TC win61%

Draw22%

Debreceni VSC win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Groupama Aréna

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ferencvarosi TC

4-1-4-1

90 D. Dibusz

54 O. Nagy

28 T. Raemaekers

4 M. Gomez

20 Cadu

6 A. Nagy

11 Dele

16 K. Zachariassen

17 M. Corbu

15 D. Arzani

18 A. Bagi

Coach · Balazs Borbely

Substitutes

63 · D. Radnoti

14 · A. Osvath

5 · N. Zohore

71 · C. Lakatos

88 · P. Rommens

76 · K. Lisztes

47 · C. O'Dowda

80 · H. Maiga

72 · A. Madarasz

7 · V. Birmancevic

19 · F. Kovacevic

10 · J. Levi

Debreceni VSC

4-1-4-1

1 P. Andreev

23 G. Tercza

4 J. Mejias

26 A. Lang

3 A. Guerrero

5 B. Batik

25 S. Baldoni

10 B. Dzsudzsak

6 B. Boskovic

97 C. Denes

11 A. Szendrei

Coach · Gert Remmel

Substitutes

12 · B. Erdelyi

28 · M. Hofmann

72 · R. Keller

40 · D. Hermann

66 · J. Janneh

16 · S. Samper

75 · D. Patai

19 · D. Kocsis

39 · B. Adinany

99 · F. Cibla

24 · I. Egri

8 · L. Myrtaj

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ferencvarosi TC

4-1-4-1

90 D. Dibusz

54 O. Nagy

28 T. Raemaekers

4 M. Gomez

20 Cadu

6 A. Nagy

11 Dele

16 K. Zachariassen

17 M. Corbu

15 D. Arzani

18 A. Bagi

Coach · Balazs Borbely

Substitutes

63 · D. Radnoti

14 · A. Osvath

5 · N. Zohore

71 · C. Lakatos

88 · P. Rommens

76 · K. Lisztes

47 · C. O'Dowda

80 · H. Maiga

72 · A. Madarasz

7 · V. Birmancevic

19 · F. Kovacevic

10 · J. Levi

Debreceni VSC

4-1-4-1

1 P. Andreev

23 G. Tercza

4 J. Mejias

26 A. Lang

3 A. Guerrero

5 B. Batik

25 S. Baldoni

10 B. Dzsudzsak

6 B. Boskovic

97 C. Denes

11 A. Szendrei

Coach · Gert Remmel

Substitutes

12 · B. Erdelyi

28 · M. Hofmann

72 · R. Keller

40 · D. Hermann

66 · J. Janneh

16 · S. Samper

75 · D. Patai

19 · D. Kocsis

39 · B. Adinany

99 · F. Cibla

24 · I. Egri

8 · L. Myrtaj

Our number · ferencvarosi tc winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

61% The market71%

Us61%

~~Market~~71%

We make Ferencvarosi TC a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ferencvarosi TC win	61%	71%	−10
Draw	22%	17%	+5
Debreceni VSC win	17%	12%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	69%	−10
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	86%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	37%	50%	−13
Ferencvarosi TC or draw	83%	88%	−5
Ferencvarosi TC clean sheet	37%	–	–
Debreceni VSC clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.6 3.7 2.3 1 8.7 10.5 4.8 2 9.9 9.9 5.0 3 6.8 6.8 3.4 4 3.6 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ferencvarosi TC down, Debreceni VSC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,037 NB I matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 3.47 goals a meeting; 9 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ferencvarosi TC at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Debreceni VSC away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Ferencvarosi TC, 1.00 for Debreceni VSC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.47

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 15

~~Both scored~~7 of 15

~~Last meetings~~DEB 0–2 FER · FER 0–1 DEB · DEB 0–3 FER · DEB 0–1 FER

Form · last six in NB I

FERENCVAROSI TC

DWWWDD0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

DEBRECENI VSC

WDDDWL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyori ETO FC	8	+6	15
2	Puskas Academy	8	+3	15
3	Vasas	8	+6	14
4	Ujpest	8	+4	14
5	Ferencvarosi TC	7	+3	12
6	Paks	8	−1	11
7	MTK Budapest	8	+1	9
8	Kisvarda FC	8	−1	9
9	Debreceni VSC	8	−3	9
10	Nyiregyhaza	8	−5	8
11	Budapest Honved	7	−3	6
12	Zalaegerszegi TE	8	−10	6