Debreceni VSC v Zalaegerszegi TE prediction · NB I

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Debreceni VSC 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TE DEBRECENI VSC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Debreceni VSC win~~47%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.429

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.355

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Debreceni VSC win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Debreceni VSC 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
1′KICK-OFF Debreceni VSC v Zalaegerszegi TE
27′Debreceni VSC score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
27′We said Debreceni VSC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Debreceni VSC 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TE
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Debreceni VSC win: 47% at kick-off, 73% now
30′GOAL DISALLOWED · 30' Debreceni VSC
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Debreceni VSC win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Zalaegerszegi TE
44′We said Debreceni VSC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Debreceni VSC 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TE
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Debreceni VSC win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
45′43′: Ákos Szendrei on the scoresheet for Debreceni VSC, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME Debreceni VSC 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TE
46′SECOND HALF Debreceni VSC 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TE
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Zalaegerszegi TE · On: Arthur Henrique Marques Machado · Off: Fabricio Amato
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Adrián Guerrero Aguilar · Debreceni VSC
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Debreceni VSC win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Diogo Antônio Rodrigues da Silva · Zalaegerszegi TE
62′We said Debreceni VSC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Debreceni VSC · On: Sohan Baldoni · Off: Imre egri
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Debreceni VSC · On: Dominik Kocsis · Off: Vilmos Csanad Denes
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Debreceni VSC 2–0 Zalaegerszegi TE
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Debreceni VSC win: 47% at kick-off, 96% now
63′Debreceni VSC ahead on 62′ through Sohan Baldoni. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
63′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Debreceni VSC win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Bence Kiss · Zalaegerszegi TE
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Debreceni VSC · On: florian cibla · Off: Balazs Dzsudzsak
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Debreceni VSC · On: Sergi Samper · Off: Maximilian Hofmann
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Zalaegerszegi TE · On: Lucas Alfonso · Off: Bence Babos
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Zalaegerszegi TE · On: Aiden Harangi · Off: Bence Kiss
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Debreceni VSC · On: Julien Da Costa · Off: Josua Mejias
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Julien Da Costa · Debreceni VSC
82′We said Debreceni VSC at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zalaegerszegi TE · On: Nicolás Elosú Larumbe · Off: András Mátyás Csonka
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zalaegerszegi TE · On: Marlon Santos Teodoro · Off: Emin Kujovic
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' blaz boskovic · Debreceni VSC
98′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Debreceni VSC 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TE
FTFULL TIME Debreceni VSC 4–0 Zalaegerszegi TE
FTDebreceni VSC 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TE · Debreceni VSC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Debreceni VSC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Debreceni VSC 47%, draw 26%, Zalaegerszegi TE 28%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Debreceni VSC v Zalaegerszegi TEBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Debreceni VSC win47%

Draw26%

Zalaegerszegi TE win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueNagyerdei Stadion

Line-ups

Debreceni VSC

4-2-3-1

Zalaegerszegi TE

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Debreceni VSC

Zalaegerszegi TE

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · NB I

Last match: 11 Oct · NB I

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Debreceni VSC	9	−3	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	9	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Debreceni VSC

4-2-3-1

1 P. Andreev

4 J. Mejías

28 M. Hofmann

26 Á. Lang

3 Adrián Guerrero

5 B. Batik

6 B. Bošković

24 I. Egri

10 B. Dzsudzsák

97 C. Denes

11 Á. Szendrei

Coach · Gert Remmel

Substitutes

25 · S. Baldoni

66 · J. Janneh

39 · B. Adinany

40 · David Hermann

12 · B. Erdélyi

72 · R. Keller

19 · D. Kocsis

96 · J. Dacosta

99 · F. Cibla

16 · Sergi Samper

75 · D. Patai

Zalaegerszegi TE

4-4-2

1 B. Gundel-Takács

8 A. Csonka

13 T. Peñalba

33 Antonio Diogo

18 Calderón

74 B. Babos

30 F. Amato

6 E. Kujović

10 B. Kiss

9 Matheus Machado

7 Danylo Krevsun

Coach · Filipe Çelikkaya

Substitutes

2 · Aiden Joshua Harangi

80 · Marlon

4 · J. Peraza

20 · M. Richards

32 · L. Alfonso

15 · Nicolás Elosú Larumbe

79 · Mihály Lakos

14 · Jude Madaki

77 · Arthur Henrique

17 · Teixeira Guilherme

3 · Fernando José Vera García

21 · T. Maigana

Our number · debreceni vsc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market51%

Us47%

~~Market~~51%

We make Debreceni VSC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Debreceni VSC v Zalaegerszegi TE~~1.66 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~10 v 11

~~The market · Debreceni VSC win~~51% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Debreceni VSC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Debreceni VSC win	47%	51%	−4
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Zalaegerszegi TE win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%	−5
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Debreceni VSC or draw	72%	76%	−4
Debreceni VSC clean sheet	29%	–	–
Zalaegerszegi TE clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.5 5.9 4.2 1 8.3 12.2 7.0 2.9 2 7.6 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 4.2 5.2 3.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Debreceni VSC down, Zalaegerszegi TE across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,047 NB I matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Debreceni VSC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zalaegerszegi TE away: 0.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Debreceni VSC, 1.23 for Zalaegerszegi TE. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZAL 1–1 DEB · DEB 2–1 ZAL · ZAL 3–3 DEB · DEB 4–3 ZAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 16 Aug

DEBRECENI VSC

DDDWLD1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 1–1

ZALAEGERSZEGI TE

LLLWLW0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Puskas Academy	10	+5	21
2	Gyori ETO FC	10	+6	18
3	Vasas	10	+5	15
4	Ujpest	10	+3	15
5	Paks	10	+1	14
6	Ferencvarosi TC	8	+3	13
7	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
8	Kisvarda FC	9	−1	10
9	Budapest Honved	9	−2	10
10	Debreceni VSC	9	−3	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	9	−6	9
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8