Budapest Honved v Ujpest prediction · NB I

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Budapest Honved 1–1 Ujpest BUDAPEST HONVED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Budapest Honved win~~43%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.837

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.801

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Budapest Honved win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Budapest Honved 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
2′Little has changed for our model: Budapest Honved 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
2′KICK-OFF Budapest Honved v Ujpest
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' I. Pekár · Budapest Honved
45′SECOND HALF Budapest Honved 0–0 Ujpest
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Budapest Honved · On: Adi Alić · Off: Tamás Somogyi Corrected
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Ujpest · On: Ábel Krajcsovics · Off: Krisztofer Horvath Corrected
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Ujpest · On: Gleofilo Vlijter · Off: Muhamed Tijani Corrected
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Aljosa Matko · Ujpest
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Budapest Honved · On: Reda Eddarraj · Off: I. Pekár Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Budapest Honved · On: Patrik Pinte · Off: Alberto Mari Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ujpest · On: Attila Fiola · Off: Ferenc Ujváry Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Heitor Marinho dos Santos · Ujpest
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Budapest Honved 0–1 Ujpest
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Budapest Honved 0–1 Ujpest · Gleofilo Vlijter
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Budapest Honved 1–1 Ujpest · Gleofilo Vlijter
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Budapest Honved 1–1 Ujpest · Patrik Pinte
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Reda Eddarraj · Budapest Honved
80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Patrik Pinte · Budapest Honved
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Budapest Honved · On: Deian Boldor · Off: Oleksandr Safronov Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Budapest Honved · On: Branko Pauljević · Off: Ákos Zuigeber Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Ujpest · On: Tizian Valentino Scharmer · Off: Etienne Amenyido Corrected
FTFULL TIME Budapest Honved 1–1 Ujpest
FTBudapest Honved 1–1 Ujpest · Budapest Honved win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Budapest Honved win43%

Draw26%

Ujpest win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:45

VenueBozsik József Stadion

Line-ups

Budapest Honved

4-4-2

Ujpest

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Budapest Honved

Ujpest

23Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ujpest	8	+4	14
11	Budapest Honved	7	−3	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Budapest Honved

4-4-2

31 O. Hadzikic

33 O. Safronov

44 A. Baki

4 A. Szabo

11 S. Hangya

7 A. Zuigeber

99 I. Pekar

5 D. Csontos

40 A. Szamosi

30 T. Somogyi

45 A. Mari

Coach · Maurizio Jacobacci

Substitutes

1 · G. Duzs

13 · D. Czinki

49 · B. Pauljevic

52 · D. Boldor

15 · B. Csonka

3 · P. Garcia

19 · A. Alic

71 · K. Kantor

9 · A. Gyurcso

17 · P. Pinte

80 · R. Eddarraj

Ujpest

4-2-3-1

1 P. Szappanos

36 F. Ujvary

3 Heitor

94 P. Stronati

20 M. Zeke

88 M. Ljujic

8 N. Szendrei

17 A. Matko

14 E. Amenyido

11 K. Horvath

26 M. Tijani

Coach · Zoltan Szelesi

Substitutes

23 · D. Banai

21 · T. Scharmer

2 · G. Bodnar

5 · A. Fiola

30 · J. Nunes

45 · A. Ademi

10 · A. Maier

15 · M. Mucsanyi

27 · A. Krajcsovics

38 · K. Sarkadi

39 · G. Vlijter

19 · P. M. Balladom

Our number · budapest honved winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

43% The market37%

Us43%

~~Market~~37%

We make Budapest Honved a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · budapest honved win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Budapest Honved win	43%	37%	+6
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Ujpest win	31%	36%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	60%	58%	+3
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	37%	+1
Budapest Honved or draw	69%	64%	+5
Budapest Honved clean sheet	24%	–	–
Ujpest clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.6 5.3 4.5 2.1 1 6.5 11.7 7.5 3.6 2 6.4 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 3.6 5.1 3.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Budapest Honved down, Ujpest across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,040 NB I matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Budapest Honved at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ujpest away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Budapest Honved, 1.42 for Ujpest. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:27. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BUD 0–1 UJP · UJP 2–1 BUD · BUD 0–0 UJP · UJP 0–2 BUD

Form · last six in NB I

BUDAPEST HONVED

DDLWLL3–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–3

UJPEST

WDLWDW4–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vasas	9	+6	15
2	Gyori ETO FC	8	+6	15
3	Puskas Academy	8	+3	15
4	Ujpest	8	+4	14
5	Paks	9	+2	14
6	Ferencvarosi TC	8	+3	13
7	Kisvarda FC	9	−1	10
8	Debreceni VSC	9	−3	10
9	MTK Budapest	9	−2	9
10	Nyiregyhaza	8	−5	8
11	Budapest Honved	7	−3	6
12	Zalaegerszegi TE	8	−10	6