Budapest Honved v Kisvarda FC prediction · NB I

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Budapest HonvedDrawKisvarda FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Budapest Honved 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Budapest Honved are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Budapest Honved 41%, draw 28%, Kisvarda FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Budapest Honved v Kisvarda FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Budapest Honved win41%

Draw28%

Kisvarda FC win31%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBozsik Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Budapest Honved

Kisvarda FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · NB I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Kisvarda FC	11	−1	12
10	Budapest Honved	10	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · budapest honved winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Budapest Honved a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Budapest Honved v Kisvarda FC~~1.41 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~10 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Budapest Honved win	41%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Kisvarda FC win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Budapest Honved or draw	69%	–	–
Budapest Honved clean sheet	30%	–	–
Kisvarda FC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 8.4 7.8 5.3 2.1 1 9.4 13.4 7.4 3.0 2 7.3 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.5 4.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Budapest Honved down, Kisvarda FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,052 NB I matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Budapest Honved at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kisvarda FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Budapest Honved, 1.20 for Kisvarda FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~KIS 1–1 BUD · BUD 3–0 KIS · KIS 1–1 BUD · KIS 2–2 BUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 29 Aug

BUDAPEST HONVED

WLLDWL1–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

KISVARDA FC

DWLDDD1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gyori ETO FC	11	+7	21
2	Puskas Academy	10	+5	21
3	Debreceni VSC	11	+2	16
4	Vasas	10	+5	15
5	Ujpest	11	+2	15
6	Ferencvarosi TC	9	+3	14
7	Paks	10	+1	14
8	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
9	Kisvarda FC	11	−1	12
10	Budapest Honved	10	−4	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	11	−9	10
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8