Budapest Honved v Debreceni VSC prediction · NB I

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Budapest Honved 0–2 Debreceni VSC BUDAPEST HONVED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Budapest Honved win~~38%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.626

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.574

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Budapest Honved win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Budapest Honved 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–36
2′KICK-OFF Budapest Honved v Debreceni VSC
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Adrián Guerrero Aguilar · Debreceni VSC
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Plamen Andreev · Debreceni VSC
15′Ákos Szendrei scores for Debreceni VSC on 14′. 0–0 · 37–29–35
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Budapest Honved win 34%)
45′8 shots for Debreceni VSC, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 32–38–30
45′HALF-TIME Budapest Honved 0–0 Debreceni VSC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Budapest Honved · On: Csontos Dominik Zoltan · Off: Ádám Szamosi
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Debreceni VSC · On: Vilmos Csanad Denes · Off: Imre egri
45′SECOND HALF Budapest Honved 0–0 Debreceni VSC
54′We said Budapest Honved at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–22–71
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Budapest Honved 0–1 Debreceni VSC
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Budapest Honved win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Debreceni VSC win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 43%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–38–30 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
55′blaz boskovic scores for Debreceni VSC on 54′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Budapest Honved · On: Kevin Sydney Kantor · Off: Patrik Pinte
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Budapest Honved · On: Ádám Gyurcsó · Off: Pablo García Ruiz
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Debreceni VSC · On: Sohan Baldoni · Off: Dominik Kocsis
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Debreceni VSC · On: Bence Batik · Off: Sergi Samper
66′We said Budapest Honved at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Budapest Honved · On: Reda Eddarraj · Off: I. Pekár
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Debreceni VSC · On: florian cibla · Off: blaz boskovic
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Budapest Honved · On: Adi Alić · Off: Tamás Somogyi
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Budapest Honved 0–2 Debreceni VSC
88′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Sohan Baldoni · Debreceni VSC
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Debreceni VSC · On: Dávid Patai · Off: Maximilian Hofmann
90′87′: Vilmos Csanad Denes on the scoresheet for Debreceni VSC, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′0–2 at the end. Our 38% on Budapest Honved misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Alberto Mari · Budapest Honved
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Josua Mejias · Debreceni VSC
FTFULL TIME Budapest Honved 0–2 Debreceni VSC
FTBudapest Honved 0–2 Debreceni VSC · Budapest Honved win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Budapest Honved just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Budapest Honved 38%, draw 26%, Debreceni VSC 36%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Budapest Honved v Debreceni VSCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Budapest Honved win38%

Draw26%

Debreceni VSC win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBozsik József Stadion

Line-ups

Budapest Honved

4-4-2

Debreceni VSC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Budapest Honved

Debreceni VSC

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · NB I

Last match: 18 Oct · NB I

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Debreceni VSC	10	0	13
10	Budapest Honved	9	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Budapest Honved

4-4-2

31 O. Hadžikić

33 O. Safronov

44 Á. Baki

4 A. Szabó

11 S. Hangya

17 P. Pinte

99 I. Pekár

40 Adam Szamosi

3 P. Garcia

30 T. Somogyi

45 Alberto Marí

Coach · M. Jacobacci

Substitutes

52 · D. Boldor

5 · D. Csontos

1 · G. Dúzs

80 · R. Eddarraj

9 · Á. Gyurcsó

72 · K. Kallai

49 · B. Pauljević

7 · A. Zuigeber

19 · A. Alić

71 · K. Kantor

Debreceni VSC

4-2-3-1

1 P. Andreev

4 J. Mejías

28 M. Hofmann

26 Á. Lang

3 Adrián Guerrero

19 D. Kocsis

6 B. Bošković

24 I. Egri

10 B. Dzsudzsák

16 Sergi Samper

11 Á. Szendrei

Coach · Gert Remmel

Substitutes

72 · R. Keller

90 · Bálint Tuska

66 · J. Janneh

12 · B. Erdélyi

97 · C. Denes

96 · J. Dacosta

99 · F. Cibla

5 · B. Batik

25 · S. Baldoni

75 · D. Patai

39 · B. Adinany

Our number · budapest honved winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market35%

Us38%

~~Market~~35%

We make Budapest Honved a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Budapest Honved v Debreceni VSC~~1.50 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in NB I this season · since 14 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~10 v 7

~~The market · Budapest Honved win~~35% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Budapest Honved win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Budapest Honved win	38%	35%	+3
Draw	26%	26%	0
Debreceni VSC win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
Budapest Honved or draw	64%	62%	+2
Budapest Honved clean sheet	24%	–	–
Debreceni VSC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.3 6.7 5.5 2.7 1 6.9 12.3 8.2 4.0 2 5.9 8.5 6.1 3.0 3 2.9 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Budapest Honved down, Debreceni VSC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,049 NB I matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.71 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Budapest Honved at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Debreceni VSC away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Budapest Honved, 1.45 for Debreceni VSC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.71

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DEB 1–1 BUD · DEB 0–0 BUD · BUD 2–3 DEB · DEB 4–3 BUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NB I this season · since 14 Aug

BUDAPEST HONVED

LWLLDW1–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

DEBRECENI VSC

DDWLDW0–0 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Puskas Academy	10	+5	21
2	Gyori ETO FC	10	+6	18
3	Vasas	10	+5	15
4	Ujpest	10	+3	15
5	Ferencvarosi TC	9	+3	14
6	Paks	10	+1	14
7	Debreceni VSC	10	0	13
8	MTK Budapest	10	−1	12
9	Kisvarda FC	10	−1	11
10	Budapest Honved	9	−2	10
11	Zalaegerszegi TE	10	−9	9
12	Nyiregyhaza	10	−10	8