Kaposvar v Ajka prediction · Magyar Kupa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KaposvarDrawAjka

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Ajka 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ajka just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kaposvar 35%, draw 28%, Ajka 38%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Kaposvar v AjkaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kaposvar win35%

Draw28%

Ajka win38%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 11:30

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kaposvar

Ajka

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · NB III - Southwest

Last match: 24 Oct · NB II

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ajka winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Ajka a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kaposvar v Ajka~~1.22 – 1.28

~~Form · Magyar Kupa this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaposvar win	35%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Ajka win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Kaposvar or draw	62%	–	–
Kaposvar clean sheet	28%	–	–
Ajka clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.6 10.0 6.7 2.9 1 9.5 13.2 8.2 3.5 2 6.1 7.8 5.0 2.2 3 2.5 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaposvar down, Ajka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,594 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 24 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Kaposvar play in NB III - Southwest, Ajka in NB II.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Kaposvar are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Kaposvar, 1.28 for Ajka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Magyar Kupa this season · since 21 Aug

KAPOSVAR

WW1–0 · 4–1

AJKA

D2–2

Kaposvar v Ajka

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Kaposvar

Ajka

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Magyar Kupa this season · since 21 Aug