Diosgyori VTK v Puskas Academy prediction · Magyar Kupa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Diosgyori VTKDrawPuskas Academy

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Puskas Academy 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Puskas Academy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Diosgyori VTK 28%, draw 27%, Puskas Academy 45%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Diosgyori VTK v Puskas AcademyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Diosgyori VTK win28%

Draw27%

Puskas Academy win45%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 32

VenueDVTK Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Diosgyori VTK

Puskas Academy

4Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · NB II

Last match: 17 Oct · NB I

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · puskas academy winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Puskas Academy a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Diosgyori VTK v Puskas Academy~~1.22 – 1.60

~~Form · Magyar Kupa this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Diosgyori VTK win	28%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Puskas Academy win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Diosgyori VTK or draw	55%	–	–
Diosgyori VTK clean sheet	20%	–	–
Puskas Academy clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.0 8.6 7.6 4.1 1 6.3 12.5 9.2 4.9 2 4.4 7.1 5.6 3.0 3 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Diosgyori VTK down, Puskas Academy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,052 NB I matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NB I matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Diosgyori VTK at home: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Puskas Academy away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Diosgyori VTK, 1.60 for Puskas Academy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DIO 1–2 PUS · PUS 2–1 DIO · DIO 1–1 PUS · PUS 4–3 DIO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Magyar Kupa this season · since 12 Sept

DIOSGYORI VTK

W4–1

PUSKAS ACADEMY

W8–1

Diosgyori VTK v Puskas Academy

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Diosgyori VTK

Puskas Academy

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Magyar Kupa this season · since 12 Sept