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Wofoo Tai Po v Kitchee
Wofoo Tai PoKitcheeSenior Shield · SAT 24 OCT · Tai Po Sports Ground
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Kitchee win at 51%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Kitchee was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 30–20–50
- 1′KICK-OFF Wofoo Tai Po v Kitchee
- 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Kitchee
- 35′Kitchee find the net on 34′. 0–0 · 28–27–44
- 35′We published Kitchee at 51%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 11–18–72
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Wofoo Tai Po 0–1 Kitchee
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Kitchee win: 51% at kick-off, 72% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Wofoo Tai Po 0–1 Kitchee
- 45′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 0–1 Kitchee
- 46′A goal for Wofoo Tai Po on 46′. 0–1 · 9–18–73
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Wofoo Tai Po
- 47′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 1–1 · 27–32–41
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Wofoo Tai Po 1–1 Kitchee
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Kitchee win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
- 48′Wofoo Tai Po find the net on 48′. 1–1 · 27–33–41
- 49′We said Kitchee at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 2–1 · 60–25–16
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Wofoo Tai Po 2–1 Kitchee
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Kitchee win: 51% at kick-off, 16% now
- 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Wofoo Tai Po win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Kitchee win 40%)
- 53′Wofoo Tai Po score on 52′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 86–10–4
- 53′We said Kitchee at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–1 · 86–10–4
- 53′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 86–10–4
- 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Wofoo Tai Po 3–1 Kitchee
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Kitchee win: 51% at kick-off, 4% now
- 57′Kitchee find the net on 56′. 3–1 · 88–9–3
- 57′We said Kitchee at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 3–2 · 63–25–12
- 57′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 63–25–12
- 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Wofoo Tai Po 3–2 Kitchee
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kitchee · On: J. Haddow · Off: E. Camargo
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kitchee · On: A. Revilla · Off: Tan Chun-Lok
- 61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kitchee · On: Sephrey Ma Lok · Off: K. Obieta
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kitchee · On: V. Camarasa · Off: L. K. Chung
- 64′We said Kitchee at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 3–2 · 67–24–9
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Wofoo Tai Po · On: Paulinho · Off: Lijing Cai
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Wofoo Tai Po · On: H. P. Chan · Off: H. M. Chang
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Wofoo Tai Po
- 76′A goal for Wofoo Tai Po on 76′. 3–2 · 77–19–4
- 77′6 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 97–3–0
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Wofoo Tai Po 4–2 Kitchee
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Kitchee win: 51% at kick-off, under 1% now
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Kitchee
- 90′Full time, 4–2. We called Kitchee at 51% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 4–2 · 100–0–0
- 92′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kitchee · On: R. Mingazov · Off: Chan Shing-Chun
- 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Wofoo Tai Po
- FTFULL TIME Wofoo Tai Po 4–2 Kitchee
- FTWofoo Tai Po 4–2 Kitchee · Kitchee win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Kitchee are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Wofoo Tai Po 30%, draw 20%, Kitchee 51%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Wofoo Tai Po win30%Kitchee win51%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00
RoundQuarter-finals
VenueTai Po Sports Ground
Match timeline
All events
Wofoo Tai PoMINKitcheeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Wofoo Tai Po
Kitchee
Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Hong Kong)
Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Hong Kong)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Kitchee a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 47%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wofoo Tai Po win | 30% | 29% | +1 |
| Draw | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Kitchee win | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 64% | +8 |
| Both teams to score | 70% | 65% | +5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 83% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | 43% | +9 |
| Wofoo Tai Po or draw | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Wofoo Tai Po clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
| Kitchee clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Senior Shield this season
WOFOO TAI PO
No matches in our record yet.
KITCHEE
No matches in our record yet.