Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Senior Shield › Eastern v Southern District

Back
Hong Kong flag

Eastern v Southern District

Eastern
5–3Full time
Southern District

Senior Shield · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:38
Eastern 5–3 Southern District EASTERN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Eastern win50%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.383
The market’s Brier score0.393

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 34 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Eastern win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Eastern 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–21–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Eastern v Southern District
  4. 12′We said Eastern at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
  5. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Eastern 1–0 Southern District
  6. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Eastern win: 50% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 13′Eastern find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
  8. 20′We said Eastern at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–4
  9. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Eastern 2–0 Southern District
  10. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Eastern win: 50% at kick-off, 89% now
  11. 21′A goal for Eastern on 20′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
  12. 26′We said Eastern at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
  13. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Eastern win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
  14. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Southern District
  15. 27′Eastern score on 27′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
  16. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Eastern 3–0 Southern District
  17. 28′We said Eastern at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–0 · 97–2–1
  18. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Eastern
  19. 44′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Southern District · On: B. Landa · Off: K. Kawase
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Eastern 3–1 Southern District
  21. 45′SECOND HALF Eastern 3–1 Southern District
  22. 46′Southern District find the net on 45′. 3–0 · 98–1–0
  23. 46′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 93–6–2
  24. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Eastern 3–1 Southern District
  25. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Southern District · On: C. Lee · Off: K. Lai
  26. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Southern District · On: Stefan · Off: Poon Pui-Hin
  27. 57′A goal for Southern District on 57′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 76–18–5
  28. 57′We said Eastern at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 3–2 · 76–18–5
  29. 57′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 76–18–5
  30. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Eastern 3–2 Southern District
  31. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Eastern win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
  32. 60′Eastern find the net on 60′. 3–2 · 77–18–5
  33. 60′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 95–4–1
  34. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Eastern 4–2 Southern District
  35. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Eastern win: 50% at kick-off, 95% now
  36. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Eastern
  37. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Eastern · On: Naveed · Off: Lee Lok-Him
  38. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Eastern · On: Law Chun-Ting · Off: Wong Fred Yang
  39. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Southern District
  40. 80′7 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 88–11–1
  41. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Eastern 4–3 Southern District
  42. 81′Southern District find the net on 80′. 4–3. 4–3 · 89–10–1
  43. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Eastern
  44. 86′We said Eastern at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 5–3 · 100–0–0
  45. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Eastern · On: C. Leung · Off: H. Lam
  46. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Eastern 5–3 Southern District
  47. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Eastern win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  48. 87′A goal for Eastern on 87′ — 5–3. 5–3 · 100–0–0
  49. 87′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 5–3 · 100–0–0
  50. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Southern District · On: Lee Ka-Yiu · Off: Wong Ho-Chun Anson
  51. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Southern District
  52. 90′5–3 at the end. Our 50% on Eastern comes in. 5–3 · 100–0–0
  53. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Southern District · On: Cheng Tsz-Sum · Off: Fabio Erins
  54. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Eastern · On: N. Lorenzo · Off: Felipe Sa
  55. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Southern District
  56. FTFULL TIME Eastern 5–3 Southern District
  57. FTEastern 5–3 Southern District · Eastern win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Eastern are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eastern 50%, draw 21%, Southern District 29%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Eastern v Southern DistrictBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Eastern win50%
Draw21%
Southern District win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:00

RoundQuarter-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eastern

Southern District

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Hong Kong)

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Hong Kong)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eastern winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
50% The market49%
Us50%
Market49%

We make Eastern a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Eastern v Southern District1.92 – 1.41
The market · Eastern win49% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 08:47
Our probability · Eastern win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Eastern win50%49%+1
Draw21%24%−3
Southern District win29%27%+2
Over 2.5 goals64%63%+1
Both teams to score63%64%−1
Over 1.5 goals83%83%0
Over 3.5 goals42%42%0
Eastern or draw71%73%−2
Eastern clean sheet25%––
Southern District clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.6 5.7 3.7 1 7.5 9.2 6.6 3.2 2 6.6 8.9 6.1 2.9 3 4.2 5.6 3.9 4 2.1 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Eastern down, Southern District across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsEAS 3–1 SOU · SOU 1–1 EAS · SOU 1–0 EAS · EAS 2–1 SOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Senior Shield this season · since 20 Sept

EASTERN

No matches in our record yet.

SOUTHERN DISTRICT

W2–1