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Model 1.2

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Wofoo Tai Po v Southern District

Wofoo Tai Po
4–2Full time
Southern District

Premier League · MON 19 OCT · Tai Po Sports Ground

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 11:30
Wofoo Tai Po 4–2 Southern District WOFOO TAI PO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Wofoo Tai Po win55%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.306
The market’s Brier score0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Wofoo Tai Po win at 55%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Wofoo Tai Po 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–20–25
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Wofoo Tai Po v Southern District
  4. 30′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Wofoo Tai Po · On: H. P. Chan · Off: Leo Rigo
  5. 34′A goal for Wofoo Tai Po on 34′. 0–0 · 47–29–24
  6. 40′A goal for Wofoo Tai Po on 40′. 0–0 · 46–31–23
  7. 41′We said Wofoo Tai Po at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–7
  8. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Wofoo Tai Po win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  9. 41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Southern District
  10. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Wofoo Tai Po win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Wofoo Tai Po 2–0 Southern District
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 2–0 Southern District
  13. 47′A goal for Wofoo Tai Po on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  14. 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Wofoo Tai Po 2–0 Southern District
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Wofoo Tai Po win: 55% at kick-off, 94% now
  16. 48′We said Wofoo Tai Po at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  17. 49′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  18. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Wofoo Tai Po · On: Paulinho · Off: P. Chan Siu-Kwan
  19. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Wofoo Tai Po
  20. 50′PENALTY MISSED · 50' Southern District
  21. 51′We said Wofoo Tai Po at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  22. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Wofoo Tai Po win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
  23. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Southern District · On: Kayron · Off: B. Landa
  24. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Southern District · On: Lucas Agueiro · Off: Wong Ho-Chun Anson
  25. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Southern District · On: Stefan · Off: Poon Pui-Hin
  26. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Wofoo Tai Po · On: H. M. Chang · Off: Lijing Cai
  27. 71′Southern District score on 71′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
  28. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Wofoo Tai Po 2–1 Southern District
  29. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Wofoo Tai Po win: 55% at kick-off, 84% now
  30. 72′We said Wofoo Tai Po at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
  31. 73′We said Wofoo Tai Po at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  32. 74′We said Wofoo Tai Po at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 2–2 · 25–60–15
  33. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Wofoo Tai Po 2–2 Southern District
  34. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Wofoo Tai Po win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  35. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Wofoo Tai Po win 25%)
  36. 75′Southern District find the net on 74′. 2–2. 2–2 · 24–62–14
  37. 76′We said Wofoo Tai Po at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 23–63–14
  38. 77′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 22–65–13
  39. 79′We said Wofoo Tai Po at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–69–12
  40. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Wofoo Tai Po win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  41. 83′We said Wofoo Tai Po at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–78–8
  42. 84′A goal for Wofoo Tai Po on 84′. 2–2 · 12–81–7
  43. 84′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 93–7–0
  44. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Wofoo Tai Po 3–2 Southern District
  45. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Wofoo Tai Po win: 55% at kick-off, 93% now
  46. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Wofoo Tai Po win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
  47. 86′Wofoo Tai Po find the net on 85′. 3–2 · 94–6–0
  48. 86′We said Wofoo Tai Po at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  49. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Wofoo Tai Po 4–2 Southern District
  50. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Wofoo Tai Po win: 55% at kick-off, over 99% now
  51. 87′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  52. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Southern District · On: C. Lee · Off: Cheng Tsz-Sum
  53. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Wofoo Tai Po
  54. FTFULL TIME Wofoo Tai Po 4–2 Southern District
  55. FTWofoo Tai Po 4–2 Southern District · Wofoo Tai Po win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wofoo Tai Po are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wofoo Tai Po 55%, draw 20%, Southern District 25%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Wofoo Tai Po v Southern DistrictBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Wofoo Tai Po win55%
Draw20%
Southern District win25%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueTai Po Sports Ground

Line-ups

Wofoo Tai Po

Southern District

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wofoo Tai Po

Southern District

4Days since last match8

Last match: 15 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Hong Kong)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Wofoo Tai Po000
8Southern District000

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wofoo Tai Po

Formation not confirmed

94 Tse Ka-Wing

4 Leo Rigo

10 Fernando

16 P. Chan Siu-Kwan

20 Wong Hin-Sum

23 Lijing Cai

26 Lee Ka-Ho

33 Gabriel Cividini

44 Weverton Rangel

79 Wallisson Bahia

97 Marquinhos

Coach · Chi-Kin Lee

Substitutes

99 · H. Wu

6 · H. P. Chan

7 · H. M. Chang

9 · Paulinho

19 · Y. Kwok

28 · Wong Sum-Chit Sherman

Southern District

Formation not confirmed

1 W. H. Ng

2 C. Hall

5 Danilo Santos

9 Poon Pui-Hin

10 Wong Ho-Chun Anson

11 S. Sasaki

12 K. Lai

16 Chak Ting-Fung

22 S. Golubovic

63 B. Landa

99 Cheng Tsz-Sum

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · N. S. Ngan

32 · P. A. Hui

7 · Stefan

8 · Lee Ka-Yiu

14 · C. Lee

19 · T. A. Chong

24 · P. Cheung

27 · Kayron

33 · Lucas Agueiro

77 · Hon Shing-Wing

Our number · wofoo tai po winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
55% The market49%
Us55%
Market49%

We make Wofoo Tai Po a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Wofoo Tai Po v Southern District2.06 – 1.30
Form · Premier League this season · since 22 AugW2 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L1
Table places · points 0 v 04 v 8
The market · Wofoo Tai Po win49% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 13 OCT 05:3819 OCT 08:37
Our probability · Wofoo Tai Po win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wofoo Tai Po win55%49%+6
Draw20%23%−3
Southern District win25%28%−3
Over 2.5 goals64%62%+2
Both teams to score62%62%0
Over 1.5 goals84%81%+3
Over 3.5 goals43%41%+2
Wofoo Tai Po or draw75%72%+3
Wofoo Tai Po clean sheet28%––
Southern District clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%
0123450 3.4 5.2 3.1 1 7.8 8.8 5.9 2.6 2 7.3 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 5.0 6.2 4.0 4 2.7 3.3 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wofoo Tai Po down, Southern District across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsWOF 1–0 SOU · SOU 2–1 WOF · WOF 3–1 SOU · WOF 2–2 SOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

WOFOO TAI PO

LWWLD0–2 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

SOUTHERN DISTRICT

WWLW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kitchee000
2Warriors000
3North District000
4Wofoo Tai Po000
5Eastern000
6Kowloon City000
7Eastern District000
8Southern District000
9BC Rangers000
10Hong Kong FC000
11Shatin000

The competition's standings before kick-off.