Home › Football › Premier League › Wofoo Tai Po v Kowloon City

Wofoo Tai Po v Kowloon City

Wofoo Tai Po

1–1Full time

Kowloon City

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Tai Po Sports Ground

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 11:42

Wofoo Tai Po 1–1 Kowloon City WOFOO TAI PO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wofoo Tai Po win~~70%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.228

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.075

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wofoo Tai Po win at 70%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Wofoo Tai Po 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–16–14
1′KICK-OFF Wofoo Tai Po v Kowloon City
35′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Kowloon City
39′⚽ GOAL · 41' Wofoo Tai Po 0–0 Kowloon City
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
45′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
47′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
48′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
49′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
50′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
51′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
52′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
53′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
53′⚽ GOAL · 54' Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Wofoo Tai Po 1–1 Kowloon City · Wong Hin-Sum
54′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
55′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
56′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
57′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
58′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
59′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
60′SECOND HALF Wofoo Tai Po 1–0 Kowloon City
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kowloon City · On: Kim Min-sub · Off: M. Alonzo Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Wofoo Tai Po · On: Paulinho · Off: Lijing Cai
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kowloon City · On: Chen Ngo-Hin · Off: T. W. Fung
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wofoo Tai Po · On: H. M. Chang · Off: Wong Hin-Sum
79′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kowloon City · On: Chen Ngo-Hin · Off: T. W. Fung
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wofoo Tai Po · On: H. M. Chang · Off: Wong Hin-Sum
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Kowloon City
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Kowloon City
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kowloon City · On: Tsang Kam-To · Off: Kwok Chun-Nok
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kowloon City · On: L. Wong · Off: Rikelmi
FTFULL TIME Wofoo Tai Po 1–1 Kowloon City
FTWofoo Tai Po 1–1 Kowloon City · Wofoo Tai Po win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Wofoo Tai Po win70%

Draw15%

Kowloon City win15%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:00

Venue · Tai Po Sports Ground

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Wofoo Tai Po

Formation not confirmed

94 Tse Ka-Wing

4 Leo Rigo

8 Nando Welter

10 Fernando

16 P. Chan Siu-Kwan

20 Wong Hin-Sum

23 Lijing Cai

26 Lee Ka-Ho

33 Gabriel Cividini

44 Weverton Rangel

97 Marquinhos

Coach · Chi-Kin Lee

Substitutes

1 · S. Lo

6 · H. P. Chan

7 · H. M. Chang

9 · Paulinho

19 · Y. Kwok

28 · Wong Sum-Chit Sherman

Kowloon City

Formation not confirmed

22 T. Kwong

3 G. Muens

4 Kang Jun-Hyeon

5 D. Eli

7 Mikael

10 Rikelmi

12 C. Law

17 Kwok Chun-Nok

24 S. Lucena

47 A. Koudakpo

95 T. W. Fung

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Cheung Kwai-Wa

66 · H. A. Leung

2 · Yu Pui-Hong

8 · W. Chiu

11 · Chen Ngo-Hin

14 · Kim Min-sub

18 · M. Slattery

21 · Tsang Kam-To

23 · L. Ho

31 · H. Wong

37 · L. T. Lin

91 · L. Wong

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Wofoo Tai Po

Formation not confirmed

94 Tse Ka-Wing

4 Leo Rigo

8 Nando Welter

10 Fernando

16 P. Chan Siu-Kwan

20 Wong Hin-Sum

23 Lijing Cai

26 Lee Ka-Ho

33 Gabriel Cividini

44 Weverton Rangel

97 Marquinhos

Coach · Chi-Kin Lee

Substitutes

1 · S. Lo

6 · H. P. Chan

7 · H. M. Chang

9 · Paulinho

19 · Y. Kwok

28 · Wong Sum-Chit Sherman

Kowloon City

Formation not confirmed

22 T. Kwong

3 G. Muens

4 Kang Jun-Hyeon

5 D. Eli

7 Mikael

10 Rikelmi

12 C. Law

17 Kwok Chun-Nok

24 S. Lucena

47 A. Koudakpo

95 T. W. Fung

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Cheung Kwai-Wa

66 · H. A. Leung

2 · Yu Pui-Hong

8 · W. Chiu

11 · Chen Ngo-Hin

14 · Kim Min-sub

18 · M. Slattery

21 · Tsang Kam-To

23 · L. Ho

31 · H. Wong

37 · L. T. Lin

91 · L. Wong

Our number · wofoo tai po winPublished 10 Oct 09:05

70% The market63%

Us70%

~~Market~~63%

We make Wofoo Tai Po a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wofoo tai po win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wofoo Tai Po win	70%	63%	+6
Draw	15%	20%	−4
Kowloon City win	15%	17%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	75%	68%	+7
Both teams to score	64%	62%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	90%	85%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	56%	48%	+8
Wofoo Tai Po or draw	85%	83%	+2
Wofoo Tai Po clean sheet	31%	–	–
Kowloon City clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.7 1 5.6 6.1 3.8 2 7.1 8.3 5.0 2.1 3 6.5 7.5 4.5 4 4.5 5.2 3.1 5 2.6 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Wofoo Tai Po down, Kowloon City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 455 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 4.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wofoo Tai Po at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kowloon City away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.81 goals for Wofoo Tai Po, 1.21 for Kowloon City. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~WOF 3–2 KOW · KOW 0–2 WOF · KOW 1–3 WOF · KOW 2–5 WOF

Form · last six in Premier League

WOFOO TAI PO

WWLWWL4–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–2

KOWLOON CITY

WDLLLW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	North District	5	+14	13
2	Warriors	4	+10	12
3	Kitchee	4	+6	10
4	Wofoo Tai Po	4	+1	6
5	Southern District	3	0	6
6	Eastern District	3	−2	3
7	Hong Kong FC	3	−3	3
8	Eastern	5	−4	3
9	Shatin	4	−7	3
10	Kowloon City	4	−7	3
11	BC Rangers	5	−8	3