Warriors v Kitchee prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 14:01

Warriors 1–5 Kitchee WARRIORS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Warriors win~~44%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.665

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.590

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Warriors win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Warriors was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–22–35
1′KICK-OFF Warriors v Kitchee
6′We published Warriors at 44%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–18–16
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Warriors 1–0 Kitchee
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Warriors win: 44% at kick-off, 66% now
7′A goal for Warriors on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–18–16
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Warriors 1–1 Kitchee
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Warriors win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
16′Kitchee score on 16′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 42–24–34
37′We said Warriors at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–2 · 15–23–62
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Warriors 1–2 Kitchee
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Warriors win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Kitchee win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Warriors win 15%)
38′Kitchee find the net on 37′. 1–2. 1–2 · 15–23–62
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Warriors
41′We said Warriors at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–23–63
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Warriors win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
45′HALF-TIME Warriors 1–2 Kitchee
46′SECOND HALF Warriors 1–2 Kitchee
54′We said Warriors at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–8–90
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Warriors 1–3 Kitchee
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Warriors win: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
56′A goal for Kitchee on 55′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–90
57′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–7–91
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Kitchee
59′Kitchee score on 59′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–1–98
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Warriors 1–4 Kitchee
60′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–1–98
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Warriors · On: N. Baffoe · Off: Yu Joy-yin
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Warriors · On: B. Kraev · Off: Luis Phelipe Corrected
66′Kitchee find the net on 66′. 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Warriors 1–5 Kitchee
67′6 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kitchee · On: K. Obieta · Off: A. Illarramendi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Warriors · On: Chung Wai-Keung · Off: Y. T. Chan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kitchee · On: Juninho · Off: R. Mingazov
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kitchee · On: Chan Shing-Chun · Off: A. Revilla
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kitchee · On: J. Lam Lok-Kan · Off: E. Camargo
89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Warriors
90′A red card for Warriors on 89′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–5 · 0–0–100
90′Full time, 1–5. We called Warriors at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–5 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Kitchee
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Kitchee
FTFULL TIME Warriors 1–5 Kitchee
FTWarriors 1–5 Kitchee · Warriors win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Warriors are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Warriors 44%, draw 21%, Kitchee 35%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Warriors v KitcheeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Warriors win44%

Draw21%

Kitchee win35%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueTseung Kwan O Sports Ground

Line-ups

Warriors

Kitchee

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Warriors

Kitchee

8Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Hong Kong)

Last match: 15 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Warriors

Formation not confirmed

28 K. Chan

4 R. Tachibana

5 Y. T. Chan

6 C. R. Wu

10 B. Kraev

11 S. Ichikawa

14 Yu Joy-yin

19 Luis Phelipe

22 Y. E. Tsang

44 D. Tursunov

77 M. Gigauri

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Leung Hing-Kit

33 · K. F. Lo

7 · N. Baffoe

8 · B. Martinez

16 · Ngan Lok-Fung

27 · Lau Yu-Ho

30 · S. Hui

31 · H. T. Yung

36 · Y. H. Bau H.

37 · Y. Chan

80 · Chung Wai-Keung

99 · M. Udebuluzor

Kitchee

Formation not confirmed

17 C. Pong

3 R. Riera

5 A. Illarramendi

6 J. Haddow

7 R. Mingazov

9 A. Revilla

14 C. J. Kam

15 V. Camarasa

16 Tan Chun-Lok

18 E. Camargo

22 C. Beattie

Coach · Inigo Calderon

Substitutes

23 · T. Shek

8 · Cheng Chin-Lung

11 · Y. Kanda

21 · K. Obieta

27 · J. Lam Lok-Kan

30 · Juninho

37 · Chan Shing-Chun

40 · Li Siu-Hin

42 · Y. Cheung

43 · L. K. Chung

47 · Yu Ching-Wai

56 · Sephrey Ma Lok

Our number · warriors winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

44% The market36%

Us44%

~~Market~~36%

We make Warriors a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Warriors v Kitchee~~1.81 – 1.58

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W5 D0 L0 · W4 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~2 v 1

~~The market · Warriors win~~36% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Warriors win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Warriors win	44%	36%	+8
Draw	21%	26%	−5
Kitchee win	35%	38%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	65%	59%	+6
Both teams to score	65%	63%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	44%	39%	+5
Warriors or draw	65%	62%	+3
Warriors clean sheet	21%	–	–
Kitchee clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.3 5.9 4.3 2.3 1 6.7 9.1 7.3 3.9 2 5.5 8.3 6.5 3.5 3 3.4 5.1 3.9 2.1 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Warriors down, Kitchee across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 462 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Warriors at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kitchee away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Warriors, 1.58 for Kitchee. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KIT 1–4 WAR · KIT 1–2 WAR · KIT 1–0 WAR · WAR 2–3 KIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

WARRIORS

WWWWW3–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

KITCHEE

WDWWW3–2 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kitchee	0	0	0
2	Warriors	0	0	0
3	North District	0	0	0
4	Wofoo Tai Po	0	0	0
5	Eastern	0	0	0
6	Kowloon City	0	0	0
7	Eastern District	0	0	0
8	Southern District	0	0	0
9	BC Rangers	0	0	0
10	Hong Kong FC	0	0	0
11	Shatin	0	0	0