Southern District v Eastern District prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 11:42

Southern District 3–0 Eastern District SOUTHERN DISTRICT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Southern District win~~41%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.533

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.540

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Southern District win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Southern District 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
2′Little has changed for our model: Southern District 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
23′19′ and it is 1–0: Southern District have scored. 1–0 · 70–20–10
24′19′ and it is 1–0: Southern District have scored. 1–0 · 70–20–10
29′We said Southern District at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–9
39′Southern District find the net on 40′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–1
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
45′SECOND HALF Southern District 2–0 Eastern District
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Eastern District · On: Leo · Off: K. Sung
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Southern District 2–0 Eastern District
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Southern District win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
58′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Southern District · On: Danilo Santos · Off: B. Landa
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Eastern District
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Southern District · On: Lee Ka-Yiu · Off: Poon Pui-Hin
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Southern District · On: Stefan · Off: Wong Ho-Chun Anson
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Southern District 3–0 Eastern District · K. Lai
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Southern District 3–0 Eastern District
FTFULL TIME Southern District 3–0 Eastern District
FTSouthern District 3–0 Eastern District · Southern District win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Southern District win41%

Draw27%

Eastern District win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:00

VenueAberdeen Sports Ground

Line-ups

Southern District

Eastern District

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Southern District

Eastern District

29Days since last match30

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Southern District	3	0	6
7	Eastern District	3	−2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Southern District

Formation not confirmed

1 W. H. Ng

2 C. Hall

3 Fabio Erins

9 Poon Pui-Hin

10 Wong Ho-Chun Anson

11 S. Sasaki

12 K. Lai

16 Chak Ting-Fung

22 S. Golubovic

63 B. Landa

99 Cheng Tsz-Sum

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · N. S. Ngan

32 · P. A. Hui

5 · Danilo Santos

7 · Stefan

8 · Lee Ka-Yiu

14 · C. Lee

19 · T. A. Chong

24 · P. Cheung

27 · Kayron

77 · Hon Shing-Wing

Eastern District

Formation not confirmed

23 Paulo Cesar

3 K. Sung

4 Bruno Bianconi

5 Helio

7 Michel Renner

8 C. Scott

10 A. Salinas

11 Luizinho

13 Li Ngai-Hoi

15 Bruno Luiz

16 T. B. Kwok

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · Y. Li

6 · D. Almazan

17 · Leo

20 · M. McMillan

21 · Y. Leung

22 · C. H. Yuen

26 · Y. Chan

27 · Yeung Cheuk-Kwan

32 · K. Korani

44 · C. Wong

72 · K. Yoong

Our number · southern district winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

41% The market40%

Us41%

~~Market~~40%

We make Southern District a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · southern district win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Southern District win	41%	40%	0
Draw	27%	25%	+1
Eastern District win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	59%	−15
Both teams to score	48%	62%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	69%	79%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	23%	38%	−15
Southern District or draw	67%	66%	+1
Southern District clean sheet	33%	–	–
Eastern District clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 9.1 10.5 5.7 2.2 1 11.9 12.1 7.0 2.7 2 7.3 8.0 4.5 3 3.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Southern District down, Eastern District across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 457 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Southern District at home: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Eastern District away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Southern District, 1.13 for Eastern District. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SOU 2–2 EAS · EAS 0–1 SOU · SOU 1–1 EAS

Form · last six in Premier League

SOUTHERN DISTRICT

WWDWWL3–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–3

EASTERN DISTRICT

LDDWLL1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	North District	5	+14	13
2	Kitchee	5	+10	13
3	Warriors	4	+10	12
4	Wofoo Tai Po	5	+1	7
5	Southern District	3	0	6
6	Kowloon City	5	−7	4
7	Eastern District	3	−2	3
8	Eastern	5	−4	3
9	Shatin	4	−7	3
10	Hong Kong FC	4	−7	3
11	BC Rangers	5	−8	3