Shatin v Hong Kong FC

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shatin win at 53%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Shatin 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–20–27
3. 1′KICK-OFF Shatin v Hong Kong FC
4. 27′A goal for Shatin on 28′. 0–0 · 48–26–26
5. 28′We said Shatin at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Shatin 1–0 Hong Kong FC
7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Shatin win: 53% at kick-off, 74% now
8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 74–16–9
9. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Hong Kong FC
10. 36′We said Shatin at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
11. 45′HALF-TIME Shatin 1–2 Hong Kong FC
12. 45′SECOND HALF Shatin 1–2 Hong Kong FC
13. 46′Hong Kong FC score on 45′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 43–33–24
14. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Shatin 1–1 Hong Kong FC
15. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Shatin win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
16. 48′Hong Kong FC find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 16–25–58
17. 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Shatin 1–2 Hong Kong FC
18. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Shatin win: 53% at kick-off, 16% now
19. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Hong Kong FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Shatin win 16%)
20. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Shatin
21. 49′We said Shatin at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–2 · 16–25–59
22. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Hong Kong FC
23. 53′Shatin find the net on 52′. 1–2 · 14–25–60
24. 54′We said Shatin at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–25–61
25. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Shatin win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
26. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Shatin · On: K. Lam · Off: H. Lai
27. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Shatin · On: A. Aldalur · Off: J. Arthur
28. 64′We said Shatin at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–66
29. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Shatin
30. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hong Kong FC · On: A. Wong · Off: O. J. Benavides Medeiros
31. 75′We said Shatin at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
32. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Shatin win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
33. 80′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 18–70–12
34. 80′A goal for Shatin on 80′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 18–70–12
35. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hong Kong FC · On: J. Bennie · Off: C. McGunnigle
36. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hong Kong FC · On: H. H. Lam · Off: Yiu Ho-Ming
37. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Shatin 2–2 Hong Kong FC
38. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Shatin win: 53% at kick-off, 18% now
39. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Hong Kong FC win 12%)
40. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Hong Kong FC
41. 84′H. Kametani scores for Shatin on 79′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 12–80–8
42. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Shatin win: 53% at kick-off, 12% now
43. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Hong Kong FC
44. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Shatin · On: H. Liu · Off: Lam Hok-Hei
45. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Shatin · On: So Tsz-Yin · Off: L. Leung
46. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Shatin win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
47. 98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Hong Kong FC · On: T. Ho · Off: M. Bleda
48. FTFULL TIME Shatin 2–2 Hong Kong FC
49. FTShatin 2–2 Hong Kong FC · Shatin win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.