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Kitchee v Hong Kong FC

Kitchee

4–0Full time

Hong Kong FC

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Mong Kok Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 11:42

Kitchee 4–0 Hong Kong FC KITCHEE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kitchee win~~84%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.038

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.045

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kitchee win at 84%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kitchee was 84% before kick-off and our model makes it 85% now. 0–0 · 85–10–5
1′KICK-OFF Kitchee v Hong Kong FC
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Kitchee 1–0 Hong Kong FC
7′⚽ GOAL · 8' Kitchee 1–0 Hong Kong FC
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Kitchee 2–0 Hong Kong FC
12′⚽ GOAL · 13' Kitchee 2–0 Hong Kong FC
15′Kitchee find the net on 13′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Kitchee win: 84% at kick-off, 98% now
24′We published Kitchee at 84%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Hong Kong FC
35′A goal for Kitchee on 36′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Kitchee 3–0 Hong Kong FC · A. Revilla
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' Kitchee 3–0 Hong Kong FC
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Kitchee 4–0 Hong Kong FC · K. Obieta
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Kitchee 4–0 Hong Kong FC
45′SECOND HALF Kitchee 4–0 Hong Kong FC
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kitchee · On: J. Haddow · Off: J. Lam Lok-Kan
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kitchee · On: Tan Chun-Lok · Off: V. Camarasa
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Kitchee · On: Chan Shing-Chun · Off: A. Revilla
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kitchee · On: E. Camargo · Off: A. Illarramendi
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Kitchee 5–0 Hong Kong FC · Juninho
78′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kitchee · On: Sephrey Ma Lok · Off: K. Obieta
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Hong Kong FC · On: D. Johns · Off: C. McGunnigle
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Hong Kong FC · On: A. Wong · Off: O. J. Benavides Medeiros
78′⚽ GOAL · 79' Kitchee 5–0 Hong Kong FC
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Kitchee 5–0 Hong Kong FC · Juninho
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Kitchee 5–0 Hong Kong FC
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Kitchee 5–0 Hong Kong FC
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Kitchee 5–0 Hong Kong FC · Juninho
97′⚽ GOAL · 97' Kitchee 4–0 Hong Kong FC
FTFULL TIME Kitchee 4–0 Hong Kong FC
FTKitchee 4–0 Hong Kong FC · Kitchee win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kitchee win84%

Draw10%

Hong Kong FC win6%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:00

Venue · Mong Kok Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kitchee

Formation not confirmed

17 C. Pong

3 R. Riera

5 A. Illarramendi

7 R. Mingazov

9 A. Revilla

14 C. J. Kam

15 V. Camarasa

21 K. Obieta

22 C. Beattie

27 J. Lam Lok-Kan

30 Juninho

Coach · Inigo Calderon

Substitutes

23 · T. Shek

6 · J. Haddow

8 · Cheng Chin-Lung

10 · Kendy

16 · Tan Chun-Lok

18 · E. Camargo

37 · Chan Shing-Chun

42 · Y. Cheung

43 · L. K. Chung

56 · Sephrey Ma Lok

Hong Kong FC

Formation not confirmed

25 Poon Sheung-Hei

3 C. Bloxham

4 A. Dujardin

5 R. Hayashi

6 M. H. Bah

8 C. Weston

10 C. Coleman

16 O. J. Benavides Medeiros

19 Yiu Ho-Ming

44 J. Bennie

67 C. McGunnigle

Coach · –

Substitutes

18 · T. Mak

95 · Wong Tsz-Chung

2 · H. Yeung

9 · M. Bleda

11 · D. Johns

12 · H. Kwan

14 · T. Ho

22 · J. Ho Chun

28 · A. Wong

71 · C. H. Li

97 · H. H. Lam

99 · H. Chan

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kitchee

Formation not confirmed

17 C. Pong

3 R. Riera

5 A. Illarramendi

7 R. Mingazov

9 A. Revilla

14 C. J. Kam

15 V. Camarasa

21 K. Obieta

22 C. Beattie

27 J. Lam Lok-Kan

30 Juninho

Coach · Inigo Calderon

Substitutes

23 · T. Shek

6 · J. Haddow

8 · Cheng Chin-Lung

10 · Kendy

16 · Tan Chun-Lok

18 · E. Camargo

37 · Chan Shing-Chun

42 · Y. Cheung

43 · L. K. Chung

56 · Sephrey Ma Lok

Hong Kong FC

Formation not confirmed

25 Poon Sheung-Hei

3 C. Bloxham

4 A. Dujardin

5 R. Hayashi

6 M. H. Bah

8 C. Weston

10 C. Coleman

16 O. J. Benavides Medeiros

19 Yiu Ho-Ming

44 J. Bennie

67 C. McGunnigle

Coach · –

Substitutes

18 · T. Mak

95 · Wong Tsz-Chung

2 · H. Yeung

9 · M. Bleda

11 · D. Johns

12 · H. Kwan

14 · T. Ho

22 · J. Ho Chun

28 · A. Wong

71 · C. H. Li

97 · H. H. Lam

99 · H. Chan

Our number · kitchee winPublished 10 Oct 09:05

84% The market83%

Us84%

~~Market~~83%

We make Kitchee a 84% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 3.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kitchee win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kitchee win	84%	83%	+1
Draw	10%	11%	−1
Hong Kong FC win	6%	6%	0
Over 2.5 goals	78%	75%	+3
Both teams to score	52%	49%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	91%	89%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	60%	56%	+3
Kitchee or draw	94%	94%	0
Kitchee clean sheet	45%	–	–
Hong Kong FC clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.4%

0123450 1 5.6 4.2 2 8.6 6.8 2.8 3 9.4 7.4 3.0 4 7.9 6.1 2.5 5 5.5 4.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Kitchee down, Hong Kong FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 455 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 4.67 goals a meeting; 9 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kitchee at home: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hong Kong FC away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.40 goals for Kitchee, 0.81 for Hong Kong FC. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~KIT 5–2 HON · HON 1–2 KIT · KIT 3–1 HON · HON 1–3 KIT

Form · last six in Premier League

KITCHEE

LDWDWW0–3 · 4–4 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 3–1

HONG KONG FC

LWDLLW1–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	North District	5	+14	13
2	Warriors	4	+10	12
3	Kitchee	4	+6	10
4	Wofoo Tai Po	4	+1	6
5	Southern District	3	0	6
6	Eastern District	3	−2	3
7	Hong Kong FC	3	−3	3
8	Eastern	5	−4	3
9	Shatin	4	−7	3
10	Kowloon City	4	−7	3
11	BC Rangers	5	−8	3