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Eastern v North District

Eastern

1–3Full time

North District

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 15:49

Eastern 1–3 North District EASTERN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eastern win~~44%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.653

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.358

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Eastern win44%

Draw20%

North District win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Eastern

Formation not confirmed

25 C. W. Ko

5 A. Cova

9 Y. Okubo

11 Felipe Sa

15 Lau Kwan Ching

16 C. Leung

20 C. Alonso

23 Lee Lok-Him

27 M. K. Gondra

32 H. Lam

65 Wong Fred Yang

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · H. Yapp

26 · Yuen Ho-Chun

4 · A. Parada Gil

7 · Naveed

14 · T. Loong

19 · N. Lorenzo

22 · Leung Kwun-Chung

33 · M. H. Gao

42 · T. Yeung

66 · M. Gao

88 · M. H. Cheung

North District

Formation not confirmed

13 K. Chan

3 Wong Chun-Ho

5 C. Paez

9 Lo Kong-Wai

10 Law Hiu-Chung

11 Weverton Gudula

16 K. Mosquera

20 Kayke David

22 Y. Arboleda

37 Wong Tsz-Ho

70 Samuel Granada

Coach · –

Substitutes

63 · H. D. Li

2 · B. K. Singh

4 · Fung Kwun-Ming

6 · C. Tsang

7 · Yuen Sai-Kit

8 · Vinicius Soares

15 · H. Wong

18 · T. M. Dai

19 · J. Khan

21 · T. Yau

23 · C. N. Siu

87 · L. Tsui

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Eastern

Formation not confirmed

25 C. W. Ko

5 A. Cova

9 Y. Okubo

11 Felipe Sa

15 Lau Kwan Ching

16 C. Leung

20 C. Alonso

23 Lee Lok-Him

27 M. K. Gondra

32 H. Lam

65 Wong Fred Yang

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · H. Yapp

26 · Yuen Ho-Chun

4 · A. Parada Gil

7 · Naveed

14 · T. Loong

19 · N. Lorenzo

22 · Leung Kwun-Chung

33 · M. H. Gao

42 · T. Yeung

66 · M. Gao

88 · M. H. Cheung

North District

Formation not confirmed

13 K. Chan

3 Wong Chun-Ho

5 C. Paez

9 Lo Kong-Wai

10 Law Hiu-Chung

11 Weverton Gudula

16 K. Mosquera

20 Kayke David

22 Y. Arboleda

37 Wong Tsz-Ho

70 Samuel Granada

Coach · –

Substitutes

63 · H. D. Li

2 · B. K. Singh

4 · Fung Kwun-Ming

6 · C. Tsang

7 · Yuen Sai-Kit

8 · Vinicius Soares

15 · H. Wong

18 · T. M. Dai

19 · J. Khan

21 · T. Yau

23 · C. N. Siu

87 · L. Tsui

Our number · eastern winPublished 9 Oct 13:02

44% The market26%

Us44%

~~Market~~26%

We make Eastern a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · eastern win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 22% to 26% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eastern win	44%	26%	+19
Draw	20%	23%	−3
North District win	35%	51%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	71%	67%	+4
Both teams to score	69%	67%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	85%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	50%	47%	+3
Eastern or draw	65%	49%	+16
Eastern clean sheet	19%	–	–
North District clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.4 4.7 3.8 2.2 1 5.4 8.0 7.0 4.1 2 4.9 8.0 6.7 3.9 3 3.2 5.2 4.4 2.5 4 2.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eastern down, North District across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 454 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eastern at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). North District away: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Eastern, 1.76 for North District. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~EAS 3–1 NOR · NOR 0–3 EAS · EAS 1–4 NOR · NOR 0–1 EAS

Form · last six in Premier League

EASTERN

LDLLWL2–4 · 4–4 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 4–0 · 0–1

NORTH DISTRICT

LLWDWW1–3 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Warriors	4	+10	12
2	North District	4	+12	10
3	Kitchee	4	+6	10
4	Wofoo Tai Po	4	+1	6
5	Southern District	3	0	6
6	Eastern	4	−2	3
7	Eastern District	3	−2	3
8	Hong Kong FC	3	−3	3
9	Shatin	4	−7	3
10	Kowloon City	4	−7	3
11	BC Rangers	5	−8	3