BC Rangers v Warriors prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 11:42

BC Rangers 0–2 Warriors WARRIORS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Warriors win~~75%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.092

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.108

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Warriors win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Warriors was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 10–14–76
2′Much as we predicted: Warriors was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 10–14–76
13′A goal for Warriors on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–8–89
15′A goal for Warriors on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–8–89
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Warriors win: 75% at kick-off, 89% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Warriors win: 75% at kick-off, 69% now
43′We said Warriors at 75%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 62%. 0–0 · 12–26–62
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Warriors win: 75% at kick-off, 62% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Warriors win: 75% at kick-off, 70% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Warriors win: 75% at kick-off, 62% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Warriors win: 75% at kick-off, 70% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Warriors win: 75% at kick-off, 70% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Warriors win: 75% at kick-off, 62% now
45′🟥 RED CARD · 48' BC Rangers
45′HALF-TIME BC Rangers 0–0 Warriors
46′🟨 YELLOW · 49' R. Tachibana · Warriors
46′SECOND HALF BC Rangers 0–0 Warriors
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' BC Rangers · On: H. Chen · Off: Flavio Tico
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' BC Rangers · On: H. Chen · Off: Flavio Tico
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Warriors
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' BC Rangers 0–1 Warriors
74′SUBSTITUTION · 56' BC Rangers · On: W. F. Leung · Off: Nathan Lourenco
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' BC Rangers
82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Warriors
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Warriors
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' BC Rangers 0–2 Warriors
FTFULL TIME BC Rangers 0–2 Warriors
FTBC Rangers 0–2 Warriors · Warriors win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

BC Rangers win11%

Draw14%

Warriors win75%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 09:00

VenueTuen Mun tang Shiu Kin Sports Ground

Line-ups

BC Rangers

Warriors

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

BC Rangers

Warriors

21Days since last match30

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Warriors	4	+10	12
11	BC Rangers	5	−8	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

BC Rangers

Formation not confirmed

70 Yip Ka-Yu

3 Antenor Junior

5 A. Zarei

6 Nathan Lourenco

7 Lau Chi-Lok

9 Flavio Tico

10 C. J. Ho

17 C. Tsang

20 C. Cheung

25 Paulinho Souza

35 C. Y. Lam

Coach · Man-Chun Szeto

Substitutes

19 · C. Tong

99 · H. Wong

4 · W. F. Leung

11 · H. Chen

12 · Matheus Pato

14 · Y. Ma

18 · Y. A. Lau

21 · I. Yakubu Nassam

23 · H. Yung

26 · C. Ma

28 · M. Wong

96 · O. Cheung

Warriors

Formation not confirmed

28 K. Chan

4 R. Tachibana

5 Y. T. Chan

6 C. R. Wu

10 B. Kraev

11 S. Ichikawa

14 Yu Joy-yin

19 Luis Phelipe

22 Y. E. Tsang

44 D. Tursunov

77 M. Gigauri

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Leung Hing-Kit

33 · K. F. Lo

7 · N. Baffoe

8 · B. Martinez

16 · Ngan Lok-Fung

27 · Lau Yu-Ho

30 · S. Hui

31 · H. T. Yung

36 · Y. H. Bau H.

80 · Chung Wai-Keung

99 · M. Udebuluzor

Our number · warriors winPublished 11 Oct 09:04

75% The market73%

Us75%

~~Market~~73%

We make Warriors a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–2.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · warriors win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BC Rangers win	11%	10%	+1
Draw	14%	16%	−3
Warriors win	75%	73%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	73%	69%	+4
Both teams to score	58%	56%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	86%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	54%	50%	+4
BC Rangers or draw	25%	27%	−2
BC Rangers clean sheet	6%	–	–
Warriors clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 8.6%

0123450 2.2 6.5 8.6 8.1 5.9 3.51 2.5 5.9 8.2 7.6 5.5 3.32 3.0 4.1 3.8 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BC Rangers down, Warriors across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 457 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BC Rangers at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Warriors away: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for BC Rangers, 2.90 for Warriors. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WAR 2–0 BCR · BCR 1–2 WAR

Form · last six in Premier League

BC RANGERS

DLLLLW1–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 1–0

WARRIORS

WLWWWW4–2 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	North District	5	+14	13
2	Kitchee	5	+10	13
3	Warriors	4	+10	12
4	Wofoo Tai Po	5	+1	7
5	Southern District	3	0	6
6	Kowloon City	5	−7	4
7	Eastern District	3	−2	3
8	Eastern	5	−4	3
9	Shatin	4	−7	3
10	Hong Kong FC	4	−7	3
11	BC Rangers	5	−8	3