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Model 1.2

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BC Rangers v North District

BC Rangers
0–1Full time
North District

Premier League · SUN 18 OCT · Tuen Mun tang Shiu Kin Sports Ground

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08
BC Rangers 0–1 North District NORTH DISTRICT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said North District win62%
The market said74%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.215
The market’s Brier score0.107

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said North District win at 62%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: North District was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 20–18–62
  3. 1′KICK-OFF BC Rangers v North District
  4. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' BC Rangers
  5. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' North District win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
  6. 45′We said North District at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 20–29–50
  7. 45′HALF-TIME BC Rangers 0–0 North District
  8. 46′SECOND HALF BC Rangers 0–0 North District
  9. 47′We said North District at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 20–30–49
  10. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' BC Rangers
  11. 55′We expected about 3.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 19–35–45
  12. 57′We said North District at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 19–37–44
  13. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' North District win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
  14. 64′We said North District at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 18–43–39
  15. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was North District win 39%)
  16. 66′North District score on 66′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  17. 66′We published North District at 62%. Our model now makes it 83%. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  18. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 59' BC Rangers · On: I. Yakubu Nassam · Off: H. Chen
  19. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' BC Rangers 0–1 North District
  20. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' North District win: 62% at kick-off, 83% now
  21. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' North District win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
  22. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' North District · On: Vinicius Soares · Off: V. Kauan
  23. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' North District · On: Wong Tsz-Ho · Off: Yuen Sai-Kit
  24. 72′We published North District at 62%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  25. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' BC Rangers · On: Matheus Pato · Off: W. F. Leung
  26. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' BC Rangers · On: C. Tsang · Off: C. Ma
  27. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' North District
  28. 81′We published North District at 62%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  29. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' North District · On: Law Hiu-Chung · Off: Weverton Gudula
  30. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' North District win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
  31. 88′We published North District at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  32. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' BC Rangers · On: H. Yung · Off: C. J. Ho
  33. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' BC Rangers · On: C. Y. Lam · Off: C. Cheung
  34. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' North District · On: Lo Kong-Wai · Off: J. Khan
  35. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 88' North District · On: Wong Chun-Ho · Off: Fung Kwun-Ming
  36. FTFULL TIME BC Rangers 0–1 North District
  37. FTBC Rangers 0–1 North District · North District win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

North District are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BC Rangers 20%, draw 17%, North District 62%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on BC Rangers v North DistrictBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

BC Rangers win20%
Draw17%
North District win62%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueTuen Mun tang Shiu Kin Sports Ground

Line-ups

BC Rangers

North District

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BC Rangers

North District

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Hong Kong)

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Hong Kong)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3North District000
9BC Rangers000

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

BC Rangers

Formation not confirmed

70 Yip Ka-Yu

3 Antenor Junior

4 W. F. Leung

5 A. Zarei

9 Flavio Tico

10 C. J. Ho

11 H. Chen

14 Y. Ma

20 C. Cheung

25 Paulinho Souza

26 C. Ma

Coach · Man-Chun Szeto

Substitutes

19 · C. Tong

99 · H. Wong

12 · Matheus Pato

17 · C. Tsang

18 · Y. A. Lau

21 · I. Yakubu Nassam

23 · H. Yung

28 · M. Wong

30 · W. Chow

35 · C. Y. Lam

39 · S. Wong

96 · O. Cheung

North District

Formation not confirmed

63 H. D. Li

2 B. K. Singh

4 Fung Kwun-Ming

5 C. Paez

7 Yuen Sai-Kit

11 Weverton Gudula

16 K. Mosquera

19 J. Khan

20 Kayke David

70 Samuel Granada

77 V. Kauan

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · W. C. Yuen

13 · K. Chan

3 · Wong Chun-Ho

6 · C. Tsang

8 · Vinicius Soares

9 · Lo Kong-Wai

10 · Law Hiu-Chung

15 · H. Wong

18 · T. M. Dai

23 · C. N. Siu

37 · Wong Tsz-Ho

87 · L. Tsui

Our number · north district winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
62% The market74%
Us62%
Market74%

We make North District a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · BC Rangers v North District1.33 – 2.53
Form · Premier League this season · since 22 AugW1 D0 L5 · W4 D1 L0
Table places · points 0 v 09 v 3
The market · North District win74% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 12 OCT 04:0218 OCT 11:11
Our probability · North District win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
BC Rangers win20%10%+10
Draw17%16%+1
North District win62%74%−12
Over 2.5 goals73%71%+2
Both teams to score66%57%+9
Over 1.5 goals89%87%+2
Over 3.5 goals53%51%+2
BC Rangers or draw38%26%+12
BC Rangers clean sheet9%––
North District clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%
0123450 2.2 5.8 6.6 5.5 3.6 1 3.4 7.0 8.5 6.8 4.4 2.42 2.2 4.9 5.6 4.5 2.8 3 2.2 2.6 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+BC Rangers down, North District across0–5 goals a side shown (93.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting3.67
Over 2.53 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsNOR 5–0 BCR · NOR 2–1 BCR · BCR 2–1 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

BC RANGERS

LLLLWL2–3 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 0–2

NORTH DISTRICT

WDWWW2–0 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 5–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kitchee000
2Warriors000
3North District000
4Wofoo Tai Po000
5Eastern000
6Kowloon City000
7Eastern District000
8Southern District000
9BC Rangers000
10Hong Kong FC000
11Shatin000

The competition's standings before kick-off.