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Real Espana v Platense FC

Real Espana

4–3Full time

Platense FC

Liga Nacional · SUN 25 OCT

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01

Real Espana 4–3 Platense FC REAL ESPANA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Espana win~~60%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.238

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.162

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Espana win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Espana was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–24–16
1′KICK-OFF Real Espana v Platense FC
12′We published Real Espana at 60%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–12–5
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Real Espana 1–0 Platense FC
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Real Espana win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
13′Real Espana find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–5
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Platense FC
42′We said Real Espana at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 1–1 · 48–36–17
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Real Espana 1–1 Platense FC
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Real Espana win: 60% at kick-off, 48% now
44′A goal for Platense FC on 43′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 47–37–16
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Real Espana win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 84–13–3
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Platense FC
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Real Espana 2–1 Platense FC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Real Espana win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
45′HALF-TIME Real Espana 3–1 Platense FC
45′SECOND HALF Real Espana 3–1 Platense FC
46′Real Espana score on 45′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 84–13–3
46′We published Real Espana at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Real Espana 4–1 Platense FC
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Real Espana win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
48′Real Espana find the net on 45′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
48′We published Real Espana at 60%. Our model now makes it 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
48′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Real Espana 3–1 Platense FC
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Real Espana win: 60% at kick-off, 97% now
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Real Espana 4–2 Platense FC
54′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 98–2–0
54′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Raul Caceres · Platense FC
55′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Real Espana
56′Real Espana find the net on 56′. 4–2 · 98–2–0
57′Platense FC score on 56′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 98–2–0
61′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Platense FC · On: A. Norales · Off: M. Arzu
62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Real Espana
67′Real Espana are down to nine from 67′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 4–2 · 99–1–0
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Real Espana
70′🟨 YELLOW · 67' D. Sayago · Real Espana
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Platense FC · On: G. Welcome · Off: M. Suarez
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Platense FC · On: Y. Jasid Arzu Marin · Off: G. Canahuati
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Espana · On: D. Aparicio · Off: A. Garcia Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Real Espana · On: D. Aparicio · Off: A. Garcia
73′We published Real Espana at 60%. Our model now makes it 89%. 4–3 · 89–10–1
73′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 89–10–1
73′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Real Espana · On: M. Arana · Off: D. Vuelto
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Real Espana 4–3 Platense FC
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Real Espana win: 60% at kick-off, 89% now
74′We published Real Espana at 60%. Our model now makes it 90%. 4–3 · 90–10–1
76′Platense FC find the net on 75′. 4–3. 4–3 · 90–9–1
84′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Platense FC
88′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Platense FC
90′Full time, 4–3. We called Real Espana at 60% — that one lands. 4–3 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Real Espana · On: E. Hernandez · Off: M. Arana
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Platense FC · On: E. Gutierrez · Off: C. Gutierrez
95′🟨 YELLOW · 84' M. Salinas · Platense FC
95′🟨 YELLOW · 88' E. Urbina · Platense FC
96′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Platense FC · On: J. Vargas · Off: M. Moncada
FTFULL TIME Real Espana 4–3 Platense FC
FTReal Espana 4–3 Platense FC · Real Espana win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Espana are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Espana 60%, draw 23%, Platense FC 16%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Real Espana v Platense FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Real Espana win60%

Draw23%

Platense FC win16%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:15

RoundApertura · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Espana

Platense FC

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Real Espana	10	+9	21
11	Platense FC	10	−13	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real espana winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market68%

Us60%

~~Market~~68%

We make Real Espana a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Espana v Platense FC~~1.88 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 8~~3 v 11

~~The market · Real Espana win~~68% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Espana win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Espana win	60%	68%	−8
Draw	23%	20%	+3
Platense FC win	16%	12%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Real Espana or draw	84%	88%	−4
Real Espana clean sheet	42%	–	–
Platense FC clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.4%

0123450 7.3 5.0 2.5 1 11.4 11.1 4.5 2 11.3 9.7 4.2 3 7.1 6.0 2.6 4 3.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Espana down, Platense FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,111 Liga Nacional matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.11 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Espana at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Platense FC away: 0.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Real Espana, 0.87 for Platense FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.11

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~PLA 0–3 REA · REA 2–0 PLA · PLA 2–2 REA · REA 2–1 PLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug

REAL ESPANA

WWDWWL2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

PLATENSE FC

WLDLWL2–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
2	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
3	Real Espana	10	+9	21
4	CD Motagua	10	+6	19
5	Olancho	11	0	13
6	Estrella Roja	11	−3	13
7	Lobos Upnfm	10	−1	12
8	Génesis	10	+2	11
9	Atlético Choloma	10	−2	10
10	Atletico Independiente	10	−8	10
11	Platense FC	10	−13	8
12	Juticalpa	10	−13	6