Real Espana v Juticalpa prediction · Liga Nacional

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real EspanaDrawJuticalpa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Espana 73%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Espana are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Espana 73%, draw 18%, Juticalpa 9%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Real Espana v JuticalpaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Real Espana win73%

Draw18%

Juticalpa win9%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 23:15

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Espana

Juticalpa

7Days since last match14

Last match: 25 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real espana winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Real Espana a 73% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Espana v Juticalpa~~2.36 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 6~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Espana win	73%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Juticalpa win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Real Espana or draw	91%	–	–
Real Espana clean sheet	48%	–	–
Juticalpa clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.6%

0123450 5.2 2.9 1 10.3 8.3 2.9 2 12.6 9.1 3.3 3 9.9 7.1 2.6 4 5.9 4.2 5 2.8 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Espana down, Juticalpa across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,114 Liga Nacional matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Espana at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Juticalpa away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Real Espana, 0.73 for Juticalpa. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~REA 1–1 JUT · JUT 1–1 REA · JUT 4–3 REA · REA 0–2 JUT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga Nacional this season · since 29 Aug

REAL ESPANA

WDWWLW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 4–3

JUTICALPA

WLLWLL1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Espana	11	+10	24
2	CD Olimpia	10	+14	23
3	CD Marathon	10	+9	21
4	CD Motagua	10	+6	19
5	Atlético Choloma	11	0	13
6	Olancho	11	0	13
7	Estrella Roja	11	−3	13
8	Lobos Upnfm	10	−1	12
9	Génesis	11	0	11
10	Atletico Independiente	10	−8	10
11	Platense FC	11	−14	8
12	Juticalpa	10	−13	6