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Platense FC v Juticalpa

Platense FC

2–1Full time

Juticalpa

Liga Nacional · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Excelsior

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 00:30

Platense FC 2–1 Juticalpa PLATENSE FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Platense FC win~~60%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.245

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.386

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Platense FC win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Platense FC 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–18
1′KICK-OFF Platense FC v Juticalpa
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' Platense FC 0–0 Juticalpa
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Platense FC 1–0 Juticalpa
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Juticalpa
45′SECOND HALF Platense FC 1–1 Juticalpa
45′⚽ GOAL · 56' Platense FC 1–1 Juticalpa · K. Matute
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Platense FC · On: Y. Jasid Arzu Marin · Off: A. Portillo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Juticalpa · On: J. Galeas · Off: M. Reyes
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Juticalpa
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Platense FC 1–0 Juticalpa
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Platense FC 1–1 Juticalpa · C. Gutierrez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Juticalpa · On: K. Kelly · Off: C. Rochez
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Platense FC 2–1 Juticalpa · K. Matute
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Juticalpa · On: K. Kelly · Off: C. Rochez
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Platense FC 2–1 Juticalpa
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Juticalpa · On: R. Gonzalez · Off: J. Padilla
75′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Juticalpa
90′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Juticalpa · On: M. Canales · Off: C. Sacaza
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Juticalpa
96′🟥 RED CARD · 96' Juticalpa
96′🟥 RED CARD · 97' Juticalpa
FTFULL TIME Platense FC 2–1 Juticalpa
FTPlatense FC 2–1 Juticalpa · Platense FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Platense FC win60%

Draw23%

Juticalpa win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 22:00

Venue · Estadio Excelsior

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Platense FC

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Bonilla

3 E. Garcia

21 B. Santos

27 A. Garcia

6 J. Castillo Marin

13 M. Arzu

14 E. Urbina

16 A. Portillo

23 M. Salinas

22 C. Gutierrez

30 E. Solano

Coach · Caceres Raul

Substitutes

28 · M. Loaiza

24 · M. Moncada

29 · J. Funes

25 · J. J. Rodriguez

31 · A. Norales

57 · Y. Jasid Arzu Marin

12 · G. Welcome

19 · G. Canahuati

26 · J. Brooks

40 · Y. Urbina

36 · J. Medina

Juticalpa

Formation not confirmed

35 E. Facusse

2 M. Nunez

4 K. Matute

6 C. Rochez

9 J. Rochez

17 J. Padilla

27 W. Quaye

30 C. Sacaza

39 J. Centeno

45 J. Velasquez

33 M. Reyes

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Mendoza

20 · R. Gonzalez

28 · A. Gomez

29 · O. Suazo

10 · M. Canales

14 · K. Kelly

16 · B. Chavez

19 · Y. Delgadillo

50 · J. Galeas

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Platense FC

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Bonilla

3 E. Garcia

21 B. Santos

27 A. Garcia

6 J. Castillo Marin

13 M. Arzu

14 E. Urbina

16 A. Portillo

23 M. Salinas

22 C. Gutierrez

30 E. Solano

Coach · Caceres Raul

Substitutes

28 · M. Loaiza

24 · M. Moncada

29 · J. Funes

25 · J. J. Rodriguez

31 · A. Norales

57 · Y. Jasid Arzu Marin

12 · G. Welcome

19 · G. Canahuati

26 · J. Brooks

40 · Y. Urbina

36 · J. Medina

Juticalpa

Formation not confirmed

35 E. Facusse

2 M. Nunez

4 K. Matute

6 C. Rochez

9 J. Rochez

17 J. Padilla

27 W. Quaye

30 C. Sacaza

39 J. Centeno

45 J. Velasquez

33 M. Reyes

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Mendoza

20 · R. Gonzalez

28 · A. Gomez

29 · O. Suazo

10 · M. Canales

14 · K. Kelly

16 · B. Chavez

19 · Y. Delgadillo

50 · J. Galeas

Our number · platense fc winPublished 9 Oct 22:04

60% The market49%

Us60%

~~Market~~49%

We make Platense FC a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · platense fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Platense FC win	60%	49%	+10
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Juticalpa win	18%	24%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	57%	50%	+7
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	74%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	35%	30%	+5
Platense FC or draw	82%	76%	+6
Platense FC clean sheet	37%	–	–
Juticalpa clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.9 4.4 2.5 1 9.4 10.6 4.9 2 10.0 9.8 4.9 3 6.6 6.5 3.2 4 3.3 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Platense FC down, Juticalpa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,099 Liga Nacional matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Platense FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Juticalpa away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Platense FC, 1.00 for Juticalpa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~JUT 1–1 PLA · PLA 4–0 JUT · PLA 1–1 JUT · JUT 1–0 PLA

Form · last six in Liga Nacional

PLATENSE FC

LLWLDL0–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–2

JUTICALPA

LLWLLW0–1 · 2–5 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Espana	8	+9	18
2	CD Olimpia	8	+12	17
3	CD Marathon	8	+8	17
4	CD Motagua	8	+3	13
5	Génesis	8	+4	11
6	Olancho	8	+1	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	−3	9
8	Atletico Independiente	8	−4	9
9	Lobos Upnfm	8	−5	8
10	Atlético Choloma	8	−2	7
11	Juticalpa	8	−11	6
12	Platense FC	8	−12	5